Last post on Jan 12, 2013 at 11:48 AM
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Chevrolet, Classic Cars
#7 of 9 Re: RARE ONE- HAS ANYONE SEEN ONE? [uplanderguy]
by Mr_Shiftright HOST
Jan 12, 2013 (9:29 am)
You base it on years of prior sales---buyers determine prices, not appraisers or historians or sellers. Like that car on eBay that didn't meet reserve---what people bid is what it is worth. It's worth what YOU would pay for it right now
#8 of 9 Re: RARE ONE- HAS ANYONE SEEN ONE? [Mr_Shiftright]
Jan 12, 2013 (10:20 am)
Obviously, it's only worth what a bidder will pay now, but how do the price guides price it? And you know, and I know, and everybody knows, there have not been 'years' of prior sales of pristine, stock Chevelle 2-door wagons. Plain and simple. How could there be? Same with '63 supercharged Hawks--each one is a new ball game when it's up for sale. With under 300 built fifty years ago, they haven't come up for sale as collectible cars very often, although probably more than even stock Chevelle two-door wagons.
In Studebaker circles, we laugh that the price guide (the 'big one' best known) lists a 4-door Cruiser as worth more than a 2-door Daytona, which is not 'real world' in the slightest. I know they need to sell magazines, but does the data really change that much to put a new issue out six times a year?
I think mainstream cars of which there were a ton of production (any year Impala, Mustang, Chevelle SS, etc.), the price guides probably do serve a function. But for off-the-wall stuff, I think way less so.
#9 of 9 Re: RARE ONE- HAS ANYONE SEEN ONE? [uplanderguy]
by Mr_Shiftright HOST
Jan 12, 2013 (11:48 am)
Well price guides vary, that's certainly true. Some are much better than others so you have to consult any number of them. But if you subscribe to enough databases, value predictions are pretty darn accurate.
I think you have to get the idea of rarity out of your head as being a constant factor in value.
Prices are driven by supply and demand. If everyone who really wants a 2dr Chevelle wagon already has one, then the price remains steady.
For instance the Super Hawk you mentioned when they come up for sale, and if they are a high quality piece, maintain a predictable value----mid $40Ks seems to be it.
Speaking of rarity, I know a man who has the last surviving ONE of a certain car. Is it worth a fortune? Nope. Why? Because no one wants it so badly that they'll pay more for it than they would for most other 1925 cars.
Now, if there is lots of buyer pressure, with buyers scouring the countryside looking for a particular rare car, then sure, the next time one is for sale, the price is going up. Certain Ferraris are like that.
But just because club members "think" a car is worth X dollars, that doesn't matter until a few of them start writing checks.
Even if you can't predict the exact price that a rare car will sell for, you can predict trends based on the past. Cars, even rare ones don't jump 300% in a year...they trend, like houses or anything else.
You know, it works both ways---if a Chevelle 300 2D wagon sells for $10,000 in one sale, that's not necessarily the market---and if one sells for $40,000 that's not necessarily the market. The "market" represents a kind of consistency of value.
Now for people who aren't buying and selling all the time, the idea of the "market" may not be important---but for dealers or collectors it's really good to know what to pay.
Many a man has looked at one sale, and then paid the equivalent for a similar car, only to find that that one sale was a fluke and that he's holding onto something that's worth 3/4 or 1/2 of what he thought it was.
As for the supercharged Hawks, the values won't change very much year to year, because there is not strong buyer pressure. They will gradually go up in value but there's no "engine" driving prices very forcefully.
Ditto these interesting Chevelle 2D wagons.