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2009 Predictions for the Auto Industry

76 messages,  Last post on Mar 09, 2009 at 2:22 PM

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#30 of 76
Re: Marchionne, CEO of Fiat Group [nippononly] by anythngbutgm
Dec 08, 2008 (1:35 pm)
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Replying to: nippononly (Dec 08, 2008 12:33 pm)

And of course, VW is a monster in its own right. It has limitless potential in the eastern European and Asian markets where most other major automakers have little presence, even if VW is permanently tainted in the U.S., FORMERLY the world's largest car market but perhaps not for much longer....
 
Oh man, if there was ever a company that could come along and steal the #1 spot from Toyota, it would be VW. They have such a strong position globally. I also doubt the U.S. market is as important to their bottom line as it is to Toyotas.
 
Could make for a VERY interesting battle...
#32 of 76
Re: Prediction? [rvictor] by rickwjenn
Jan 02, 2009 (3:07 pm)
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Replying to: rvictor (Dec 08, 2008 10:34 am)

1. Honda, Toyota, and Nissan have softer sales, but retain enormously loyal clients. They accelerate fuel-efficiency and hybrids to the next level further perplexing the Big Three. These loyal clients, who delay new car purchases in 1H 2009, come in force in the last part of 2009 starting a sales surge that runs into 2010.
 
2. GM, Ford, and Chrysler continue to lose market share in cars, but hold steady in Trucks until gas prices spike up again mid-2009
 
3. Fresh with all the information coming out of the Bailout talks, the average American buyer is increasingly disgusted with the Big Three requiring government $ due to multiyear incompetence and the grossly overpaid UAW workers. These 2009 buyers generally refuse to even consider the new products from the "New" Big Three.
 
4. GM consolidates to all it can support and the market is interested in: Chevrolet, Cadillac, and Saturn.
 
5. Also, due to the Bailout news and analysis, the understanding that an "American car" is one built by Honda in Marysville, OH just as one Detroit becomes prevasive and neuters the "buy america" sales pitch from Detroit and the UAW.
 
Also, IMO The ugliest cars I have seen in the last 20 years are from Detroit
 
And the big three had cost+ contracts during WWII - they were already paid for all tooling + a profit to build armaments. EVERYONE loved cost+ while it lasted.
#33 of 76
Re: Prediction? [rickwjenn] by bpizzuti
Jan 02, 2009 (5:25 pm)
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Replying to: rickwjenn (Jan 02, 2009 3:07 pm)

1. Honda, Toyota, and Nissan have softer sales, but retain enormously loyal clients. They accelerate fuel-efficiency and hybrids to the next level further perplexing the Big Three.
 
Problem with that: Ford already accelerated fuel efficiency and hybrids, with the 2010 Fusion beating out the Camry.
 
3. Fresh with all the information coming out of the Bailout talks, the average American buyer is increasingly disgusted with the Big Three requiring government $ due to multiyear incompetence and the grossly overpaid UAW workers. These 2009 buyers generally refuse to even consider the new products from the "New" Big Three.
 
Again lumping the Big3 together...Ford has not taken money and says it doesn't need any. They probably won't either, see response to #1. Chrysler, though, is a dead man walking.
 
4. GM consolidates to all it can support and the market is interested in: Chevrolet, Cadillac, and Saturn.
 
That may be GM's best hope for survival; the max a successful car company seems to be able to support is 3 brands (Toyota/Lexus/Scion, Ford/Lincoln/Mercury). However, I'm not sure we have completely discovered the depths of GM's stupidity.
#34 of 76
Re: Prediction? [bpizzuti] by explorerx4
Jan 02, 2009 (6:09 pm)
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Replying to: bpizzuti (Jan 02, 2009 5:25 pm)

i think for most only a 2 tier setup will work. toyota/lexus, honda/acura, nissan/infiniti, ford/lincoln.
there will be some exceptions, audi/porsche/vw comes to mind. for gm, maybe chevy/buick/cadillac. hyundai.
jeep, mazda, volvo, good brands, but who knows.
 
btw, someone asked if the trade in on an 05 prius with 36k for 12,300 was too low. answer was, it's about right. the bloom seems to be off that rose, at least for now.
#35 of 76
More painful UAW retiree concessions? by mwestfall
Jan 03, 2009 (5:08 am)
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Happy New Year to the UAW’s prosperous officers Ron Gettelfinger, General Holiefield, Bob King, Cal Rapson and James Settles …from over 500,000 betrayed UAW retirees.
 
These union officials call themselves negotiators.
 
In the few short months of Gettelinger’s depressing tenure how much negotiating skill did it take for them to say yes when they should have said no as they gave back 70 years of hard won worker gains that are now lost forever?
 
At Solidarity House these union officials promote the Reuther brothers who set the standard for working class Middle America. For a factual look at what the Reuthers actually thought of their bogus brand of unionism consider the second link below. It is the words of Victor Reuther talking about the new age concessionary UAW leadership at the huge 50th anniversary Rally of the UAW in Flint in 1987. I moderated this large historic event and it was sponsored by dozens of top UAW local leaders from across our nation.
 
Today defenseless UAW retirees are being treated as America’s irrelevant underclass. They have been sold-out by government politicians, corporate leaders and especially these top union officials.
 
As many of these elderly retirees suffer from cancer and other serious work related health issues related to auto production their “life and death health care benefits” have been labeled as sacrificial legacy costs. They have become negotiable political pawns.
 
Retirees legally owned their health care benefits until these union officials went to court to attain the ability to negotiate them away. These negotiated benefits were paid for over a working lifetime of worker earnings deferrals and hourly contributions. Union officials refused to vest these negotiated monies and frittered them away into profoundly less important areas.
Just as significant is the glaring facts that UAW negotiated 30-year auto pensions are overwhelmingly unequal. UAW officials refused to keep pensions up with the cost of living Increases over the years, which allowed older retirees pensions to fall dangerously behind. These UAW retirees who have given so much to our nation have become America’s elderly poor and are tapped-out with living costs.
They have also been denied the pension building tools available to today’s retirees and simply cannot afford to buy healthcare on their meager pensions.
 
It is an American tragedy that these elderly retirees would be targeted and betrayed.
 
Share the following links…
 
http://unionreview.com/insights-analysis-uaw-betrays-autoworkers
 
http://westfallmike.tripod.com/Page12.htm
 
http://www.intellectualconservative.com/2007/08/11/interview-with-whitey-hale/
 
http://www.umflint.edu/library/archives/westfall.htm
 
 http://www.speroforum.com/site/print.asp?idarticle=16991
 
http://michaelwestfall.tripod.com/id6.html
 
http://www.uawndm.org/ndmportal/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=157
 
http://westfallmike.tripod.com/Page14.htm
    
http://michaelwestfall.tripod.com/id17.html
 
http://michaelwestfall.tripod.com/id50.html
    
http://westfallmike.tripod.com/
 
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&rls=com.microsoft%3A*%3AIE-SearchBox&rlz=1I7G- FRD&q=mike+westfall+uaw&btnG=Search
#36 of 76
Crystal ball by pf_flyer HOST
Jan 03, 2009 (6:30 am)
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Want to know what's going to happen this year? Ask Dub Schwartz!
#37 of 76
I still think by boaz47
Jan 03, 2009 (10:01 am)
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new car sales could easily be off by 10 percent for the whole industry. Some of the small companies could simply fold and,or be bought out.
#38 of 76
Re: Prediction? [rvictor] by djhalptert
Jan 25, 2009 (9:10 pm)
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Replying to: rvictor (Dec 08, 2008 10:34 am)

Have you seen Gran Torino (the Clint Eastwood movie) one too many times. You vaguely sound like Clint's character, WALT. You seem a tad prejudiced against Asians.
#39 of 76
Re: Prediction? [rvictor] by lemko
Jan 26, 2009 (7:51 am)
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Replying to: rvictor (Dec 08, 2008 10:34 am)

From your lips to God's ears! Amen, brother!

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