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2009 Predictions for the Auto Industry

76 messages,  Last post on Mar 09, 2009 at 2:22 PM

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#3 of 76 My 2009 Auto Industry Predictions by Sylvia STAFF Dec 03, 2008 (12:50 pm)
1. The Big 3 get $ from the government 2. Chrysler goes away anyway 3. Jeep is bought by Fiat and Fiat + Jeep dealers flourish unless #6 happens 4. Ford is the sleeper and ends 2009 better than anyone expected 5. GM finds religion and shapes up (ok, this is more of a hope than a prediction) 6. A Chinese auto maker buys Jeep and Cherry + Jeep dealers flourish 7. Kia and Hyundai rise in the rankings at the skin of Toyota and Honda 8. Auto sales are better than the analysts predict coming in around 11 million 9. Go hybrid, go electric, go green <===== grab an increase in marketshare
#4 of 76 Predictions for 2009: by grbeck Dec 03, 2008 (1:38 pm)
1. Sales continue to decline industry-wide as the economy worsens, and don't begin to level off until the third quarter of the year; 2. Full-size pickup sales prove stronger than expected, especially for Ford, Chevrolet and GMC; 3. Hybrid sales soften - including Prius sales - as lower gasoline prices and higher prices for hybrids make consumers wary in a recession; 4. Ford market share stabilizes with new Fusion/MKZ/Milan and Mustang; GM's decline gathers speed as too many lackluster cars and SUVs overwhelm any sales from new models; Chrysler goes into a freefall; 5. Pontiac and Saturn sales nosedive on rumors that GM may phase out the brands, thus becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy; 6. Camaro sells better than expected in a declining market, but Challenger is DOA; 7. Nissan/Renault buy Jeep from a desperate Cerberus; 8 Negative reaction from analysts to GM's and Chrysler's recently unveiled survival plans force those two back to the drawing board before Congress approves any bailout money; 9. The UAW agrees to give up the Jobs Bank, and makes serious concessions on benefits and work rules, in exchange for a "back door" promise by a Democratic Congress and the Obama Administration to pass card-check legislation, which it hopes will ease its efforts to organize the transplant factories. Replies to this message: lemko (Dec 03, 2008 7:29 pm)
#5 of 76 Re: Predictions for 2009: [grbeck] by lemko Dec 03, 2008 (7:29 pm)
Replying to: grbeck (Dec 03, 2008 1:38 pm) I think Number 9 of your prediction may have already happened.
#6 of 76 Jobs Bank by anythngbutgm Dec 04, 2008 (4:44 am)
News here is reporting that the Jobs Bank has been suspended, not eliminated... Replies to this message: steve_ (Dec 04, 2008 8:38 am)
#7 of 76 I also believe by boaz47 Dec 04, 2008 (7:23 am)
That GM, Ford and Chrysler will get a bail out. GM and Ford may make a serious effort at developing EVs, Hybrids and Small diesels. Chrysler may go the way of Nash. The UAW will have to make a lot of concessions. The domestics will ask for import restrictions to improve the chances of a pay back on the bail out. The Koreans and the Chinese will market even less expensive entry level cars to the US. The Japanese will have to fight off Renault from taking over more of Nissan. The Big three may introduce CNG cars to hold them over and prove to congress they have a plan to reduce foreign oil dependance. BMW, MB and Porsche could take a beating in the US market. I can't think of any more because I got tire of tossing a coin. Replies to this message: lemko (Dec 04, 2008 7:28 am) boaz47 (Dec 04, 2008 7:37 am) bvdj84 (Dec 07, 2008 7:46 am) anythngbutgm (Dec 04, 2008 7:46 am)
#8 of 76 Re: I also believe [boaz47] by lemko Dec 04, 2008 (7:28 am)
Replying to: boaz47 (Dec 04, 2008 7:23 am) I can see MB and BMW taking a beating on the bottom end as the C-Class and 3-Series are mostly leased and there will be fewer pretentious young people willing to take on that burden in a dog-eat-dog economy. The kids that used to lease Bimmers and Benzes will most likely stick to their used Corollas and Civics for the time being, at least the smart ones will. Replies to this message: boaz47 (Dec 04, 2008 7:37 am) bvdj84 (Dec 07, 2008 7:46 am) anythngbutgm (Dec 04, 2008 7:46 am)
#9 of 76 Re: I also believe [lemko] by boaz47 Dec 04, 2008 (7:37 am)
Replying to: lemko (Dec 04, 2008 7:28 am) The kids that used to lease Bimmers and Benzes will most likely stick to their used Corollas and Civics for the time being, at least the smart ones will.   That is sort of what I was thinking. It seems as if the Germans may have been caught flat footed with this economy. VW could come to the rescue I suppose but people are looking for long term dependability in this economy and that has not been a strong point for VW in a very long time. If the economy doesn't improve and if the industry doesn't respond quickly this could be a great year for the used car market. Replies to this message: bvdj84 (Dec 07, 2008 7:46 am)
#10 of 76 Re: I also believe [lemko] by anythngbutgm Dec 04, 2008 (7:46 am)
Replying to: lemko (Dec 04, 2008 7:28 am) The C-class is in the top ten of the hottest selling cars out there (I believe it was 22 days on the lot). It's also cheaper than a CTS btw.
#11 of 76 Re: Jobs Bank [anythngbutgm] by steve_ HOST Dec 04, 2008 (8:38 am)
Replying to: anythngbutgm (Dec 04, 2008 4:44 am) That's what I hear too, but the spin is that the UAW can unilaterally suspend the Jobs Bank but would have to renegotiate the contracts to kill it. And they are saying that renegotiation is possible, so ....   There's a ton of bailout news on AutoObserver this morning.   Check out Do You Favor A Government Loan To The Detroit 3? too.
#12 of 76 by tlong Dec 04, 2008 (8:54 am)
1. GM gets bailout and some concessions, but sales continue to tank. More money wanted from Congress by midyear and more tough cuts again. GM in bankruptcy by end of '09. Wagoner is not fired by useless board until after BK. 3. Volt is abandoned. 4. Ford doing better. 5. Chrysler broken up for parts. 6. Honda and Mazda doing better than most. 7. Toyota faltering some, but not nearly as bad as GM. Replies to this message: berri (Dec 04, 2008 12:26 pm)

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