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Automotive News & Views 2009 Predictions for the Auto Industry
76 messages, Last post on Mar 09, 2009 at 2:22 PM
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| What are your predictions for the auto industry? | |
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...the economy bounces back, 2009 will be an even worse year for auto sales than 2008. Worst case scenario - GM and Chrysler are gone and Nissan finds itself in as much trouble as the Big Three currently do. However, the Japanese and French government will do all in their power to save Nissan whereas the U.S. government just callously lets GM and Chrysler die. Former GM and Mopar customers do not flock to Ford, but stop buying cars altogether or defect to the imports. Ford dead by the end of the year. |
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1. The Big 3 get $ from the government 2. Chrysler goes away anyway 3. Jeep is bought by Fiat and Fiat + Jeep dealers flourish unless #6 happens 4. Ford is the sleeper and ends 2009 better than anyone expected 5. GM finds religion and shapes up (ok, this is more of a hope than a prediction) 6. A Chinese auto maker buys Jeep and Cherry + Jeep dealers flourish 7. Kia and Hyundai rise in the rankings at the skin of Toyota and Honda 8. Auto sales are better than the analysts predict coming in around 11 million 9. Go hybrid, go electric, go green <===== grab an increase in marketshare |
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1. Sales continue to decline industry-wide as the economy worsens, and don't begin to level off until the third quarter of the year; 2. Full-size pickup sales prove stronger than expected, especially for Ford, Chevrolet and GMC; 3. Hybrid sales soften - including Prius sales - as lower gasoline prices and higher prices for hybrids make consumers wary in a recession; 4. Ford market share stabilizes with new Fusion/MKZ/Milan and Mustang; GM's decline gathers speed as too many lackluster cars and SUVs overwhelm any sales from new models; Chrysler goes into a freefall; 5. Pontiac and Saturn sales nosedive on rumors that GM may phase out the brands, thus becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy; 6. Camaro sells better than expected in a declining market, but Challenger is DOA; 7. Nissan/Renault buy Jeep from a desperate Cerberus; 8 Negative reaction from analysts to GM's and Chrysler's recently unveiled survival plans force those two back to the drawing board before Congress approves any bailout money; 9. The UAW agrees to give up the Jobs Bank, and makes serious concessions on benefits and work rules, in exchange for a "back door" promise by a Democratic Congress and the Obama Administration to pass card-check legislation, which it hopes will ease its efforts to organize the transplant factories.
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Replying to: grbeck (Dec 03, 2008 1:38 pm) |
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News here is reporting that the Jobs Bank has been suspended, not eliminated... 
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That GM, Ford and Chrysler will get a bail out. GM and Ford may make a serious effort at developing EVs, Hybrids and Small diesels. Chrysler may go the way of Nash. The UAW will have to make a lot of concessions. The domestics will ask for import restrictions to improve the chances of a pay back on the bail out. The Koreans and the Chinese will market even less expensive entry level cars to the US. The Japanese will have to fight off Renault from taking over more of Nissan. The Big three may introduce CNG cars to hold them over and prove to congress they have a plan to reduce foreign oil dependance. BMW, MB and Porsche could take a beating in the US market. I can't think of any more because I got tire of tossing a coin. 
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Replying to: boaz47 (Dec 04, 2008 7:23 am)
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Replying to: lemko (Dec 04, 2008 7:28 am) That is sort of what I was thinking. It seems as if the Germans may have been caught flat footed with this economy. VW could come to the rescue I suppose but people are looking for long term dependability in this economy and that has not been a strong point for VW in a very long time. If the economy doesn't improve and if the industry doesn't respond quickly this could be a great year for the used car market.
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Replying to: lemko (Dec 04, 2008 7:28 am) 
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