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Smart Shopper Got a Quick Question for a Car Dealer?
2394 messages, Last post on Nov 03, 2009 at 11:03 AM
You are in the Smart Shopper Forum. Your Hosts are kirstie_h & tidester
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Replying to: exb0 (Jan 25, 2009 8:18 am) Now if you were talking about the auction RESULTS, the "raw numbers" that Manheim issues on computer, that's a bit different than a "guide". A guide is like processed cheese, and the raw data has been plugged into formulas, and massaged this way and that, into compromises. But Manheim's raw data is just a list of what people paid at dealer auctions, listed by miles, equipment, etc. And even THERE you find price variations on a list of ten Saabs auctioned one right after the other.
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Replying to: Mr_Shiftright (Jan 25, 2009 9:20 am)  I know guides are not perfect and there are better resources of information out there. However, Manheim's raw data is not available to regular buyers. The Black Book Online is available with some research. http://www.cudlautosmart.com/Research/TradeInValues.aspx?WT.svl=SubMenu This “guide”, as imperfect as it is, is still better than relying on dealers’ asking prices to determine what the market value of a car really is. If the Black Book Guide is so imperfect, why is it that every UCM that I have ever met has one in his pocket? But regardless, as a buyer with little knowledge of the market, would you rather base your offer on a wholesale “guide” value + X, or dealer’s asking price – X?
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Replying to: exb0 (Jan 25, 2009 12:31 pm) All new cars are the same, every used car is different. That's the mantra a car dealer will tell you, and you know, he's right. The dealer's "asking prices" are just him exercising his first amendment rights. He can ask whatever he wants. It's the buyer who sets the market price, not the guides, not the dealer. The guides' opinions and the dealer's opinions are *reflections* of what the buyer has already determined. If the dealer can sell a car repeatedly "over book" that means the guides are not in step with a sudden feverish demand. If the dealer's prices are too high and the cars "rot on the lot", then he goes out of business. Last of all, different guides showing different pricing based on what they are trying to accomplish. Guide X might show private party retail averages, Guide Y might show dealer REALIZED prices, Guide Z might show dealer ASKING prices as reported. Guide W might show auction wholesale pricing. Which one is right? They ALL ARE!
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Replying to: Mr_Shiftright (Jan 25, 2009 12:41 pm) This thread was started by a buyer who asked a question of how much over the Black Book should I offer. A salesman’s response was, which I think was a bit self serving, don’t worry about the Black Book and just make an offer relative to the asking price because sometimes we pay more for cars than we should. I am paraphrasing here, but this is basically the topic of the thread. I still say that that buyer will be better served if he goes with his gut and makes an offer from Black Book plus rather than the asking price minus. I am not talking about any other guides, but the Black Book. The reason it has more credibility in my eyes, is because UCMs use to appraise trade-ins.
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Replying to: exb0 (Jan 25, 2009 3:16 pm)  All I'm saying is that the "Black Book" is a very rough guide. It doesn't/can't pinpoint the actual car you are looking at. Now, agreed, if there is a LARGE database and if the car is only 2-3 years old, the Black Book or whatever book is a good place to start, as it is more "disinterested" than the dealer. However, don't be outraged or surprised if you offer Black Book and the dealer does not come anywhere near that price, because he may know more about market conditions and the specifics of the car he is selling than the Black Book does. I still advise that the *best* tool is to use Autotrader, and mash up 100 comparables for sale and average them out, then deduct 10-15% for these "asking prices" and I bet you'll be more likely to make an acceptable offer. If you rely *strictly* on the Black Book, and pay no attention to comps, you are using a fairly clumsy tool IMO.
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Replying to: Mr_Shiftright (Jan 25, 2009 3:36 pm)
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Replying to: fezo (Jan 25, 2009 4:17 pm) If I present you with 150 ads for Car X with 2 doors, premium package, similar miles, and crunch an average asking price for those 150 similar cars, how much closer do you need to say "well that's about private party asking price"? So then you take 10% off for dickering and you've just created your own Black Book.
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Replying to: Mr_Shiftright (Jan 25, 2009 5:15 pm) Actually I kind of knew that you were in the classics but it was too easy a line ..... Your Autotrader method makes sense. I can't see how far wrong one could go using that.
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Replying to: fezo (Jan 25, 2009 5:25 pm) I also want to add that if you base your offers only on book values, don't be surpirsed if you get nowhere with the offer on a decent unit, or just be careful that you don't end up with a probelmatic (accident history, rebuilt, whetever) used car just because it's cloest in price to book value (ie cheapest)
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Replying to: boomchek (Jan 25, 2009 5:53 pm) What's exceptional? One owner very low miles complete service history recent timing belt change local car right colors, right options premium tires (not OEM) upgraded stereo You won't find a lot of this stuff calculated in price guides. Some yes, but not all of it. And yet that list can bump the car's value a couple thousand perhaps.
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