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External factors need to move the market

6 messages,  Last post on Sep 10, 2008 at 2:59 PM

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#1 of 6 External factors need to move the market by pipedaddytx

Sep 06, 2008 (8:19 am)

This may have already been mentioned as a suggestion by someone but I'd like to post it anyways. It seems like the ONLY thing that moves the market is player buy/sell transactions however these transactions are faked as there are actually no other parties on the other end of them. As a result this game is basically about day trading the system. So that makes the prediction nature of this game pointless as it has often been pointed out.
 
My suggestion is to have a monthly "correction" to the price based on the ACTUAL sales data. You could put some "randomness" into the situation to make it more risky to the layers. For instance say a stock is trading at 50 a share and the sales data for that model comes out and states that sales for the month were only 1,000 units which would translate into a stock retirement price of $6.00. That is a difference of $44 a share. I suggest an algorithm where the stock price "corrects" a percentage of the $44 difference. You could just for fun put in additional elements such as did the stock "miss" the pervious months' sales figures. This would be the equivalent of a "quarterly financial update" for one of our stocks. I think this would make the value of shorts much more realistic as the top set of players make virtually all of their money day trading while the VAST majority of players probably bought shorts and held for months only to see their individual increases being moderate to say the least.
 
What do you guys think?

#2 of 6 by pmc4

Sep 08, 2008 (10:22 am)

Bad idea, because it leaves a computer to do the research we should be doing.

#3 of 6 Re: External factors need to move the market [pipedaddytx] by networkguy

Sep 08, 2008 (1:43 pm)

Replying to: pipedaddytx (Sep 06, 2008 8:19 am)
Shorting stocks when way too overpriced is a good idea. When the prices start to drop, you see your wealth increase. You could sit tight and pocket the money when the stock retires. You just don't make as much money as somebody doing 30 intelligent transactions a day. The way this game works, you can only make real money when stocks are changing hands. It then becomes a matter of cycling the shorted stock through multiple cover/short swings to increase your worth. I discovered in Aug. just how hard it is to make additional profit with little to no liquidity. It takes freed up cash to make more cash. In essence, you still have to 'day trade' to some degree to relatively advance.

#4 of 6 Re: External factors need to move the market [networkguy] by pipedaddytx

Sep 09, 2008 (8:18 am)

Replying to: networkguy (Sep 08, 2008 1:43 pm)
Thanks for the feedback. I guess my primary point is that our market alone has come nowhere close to "correcting" for the actual sales figures. Nowhere close!

#5 of 6 Re: External factors need to move the market [pipedaddytx] by networkguy

Sep 09, 2008 (11:36 pm)

Replying to: pipedaddytx (Sep 09, 2008 8:18 am)
The just retired stocks have been around since close to the start of the game. Many were insanely overvalued. I bet there are/were a reasonably high number of dormant players with shares of these stocks.
Also, once shares start dropping into the 20's, it takes quite a bit of cash to short significant numbers. I believe the recent IPO's haven't climbed nearly as high as earlier cars with similar sales projections.
I'm not saying the game can't use some work. Pricing being derived strictly from player actions does have it's limitations. As Mike would say, it's still in beta.

#6 of 6 Re: External factors need to move the market [networkguy] by pipedaddytx

Sep 10, 2008 (2:59 pm)

Replying to: networkguy (Sep 09, 2008 11:36 pm)
Once again good feedback. Seems like the Mike and co. are playing a wait and see strategy so we'll see how the next few months shape up. Seems like the measure of "success" in this game is how close the retire price of a stock comes to the actual price. Would anyone agree with that statement?

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