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A few notes on the Retired Stocks

20 messages,  Last post on Sep 04, 2008 at 11:59 AM

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#1 of 20
A few notes on the Retired Stocks by mikedrud
Aug 31, 2008 (11:18 pm)
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We retired 20 stocks as of midnight Pacific Time on 9/1.
 
You can view all of the retired stocks on this new index page.
 
You can also find a "Retired Stocks" box on the lower right hand side of these pages:
 
Stocks page
Portfolio page
Help page
 
Your portfolios will be adjusted by Wednesday or Thursday of this week, once we have verified the 6-month sales on each of the 20 vehicles. Then, you will see each retired stock that was in your portfolio at the time of "retirement" listed as "Closed" in your Transaction List, with its final price listed there.
 
Currently, you will still see the stocks listed on your Portfolio page in your "My Stocks" section, but you will notice that the "Trade" button has been removed and those retired stocks are no longer on anyone's Watchlist. No one can trade those retired stocks anymore.
 
I will continue to post more notes as I have updates.
 
These are the 20 stocks that retired Sunday night/Monday morning:
 
2008 Lexus LX 570
2008 Subaru Impreza WRX STI
2008 Toyota Sequoia
2008 Infiniti EX35
2009 Nissan Murano
2008 Saturn Astra
2008 smart fortwo
2008 Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution
2008 Chevrolet HHR SS
2008 Chevrolet Tahoe hybrid
2008 GMC Yukon hybrid
2009 Mini Clubman
2009 Pontiac Vibe
2009 Toyota Corolla
2009 Toyota Matrix
2008 BMW M3
2009 Dodge Journey
2009 Jaguar XF sedan
2009 Lexus IS F
2009 Audi A5
 
Thanks,
 
Mike
CSX Game Supervisor
#2 of 20
by pmc4
Sep 01, 2008 (10:13 am)
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If you shorted the Saturn, Infiniti Vibe/Matrix or Corolla, you're only going to see around a 200% return.
If, on the other hand, you shorted cars like the Lexus LX570/IS-F, Evo, M3 or Tahoe Hybrid, expect to see gains in excess of 600%+...
#3 of 20
Re: A few notes on the Retired Stocks [mikedrud] by 57sweptside
Sep 01, 2008 (11:32 am)
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Replying to: mikedrud (Aug 31, 2008 11:18 pm)

I understand that this being the first retirement it will take some time to sort out. The problem I have is that to maximize profit, I have invested $8,657,402.16, and have only $7.90 cash. That puts anybody with ready cash in the "delay" time to really rack up some profits without any intereference.
 
And how will the delay affect the percentage gains, etc. Will they be backdated? Is the end-of-month a true end-of-month, or 30-day mtd?
 
Finally, are there that many dead accounts holding stocks that the prices didn't naturally fall closer to the CSX projections? Based on the blog posting, some of the figures were pretty far off (Yukon), but why didn't the bottom drop out of these? Most of the closers were far lower around the middle of last week!
#4 of 20
Re: [pmc4] by thegrocer
Sep 01, 2008 (3:47 pm)
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Replying to: pmc4 (Sep 01, 2008 10:13 am)

The Saturn has only actually sold 5,000 or so as of July...it was a tremendous flop...(read it will be more M3 than Vibe/Matrix)...the CSX Blog has July sales on all the retiring stocks (and upcoming in the next 2 to 3 months) here. Suffice to say, some made out like bandits on the Saturn and GM full size hybrids...same with A5...but the M3 outperformed projections slightly and the Journey and Corrolla both way out performed projections.
 
But it also depends on when you shorted...I've been sitting on Mini, M3, IS-F, and A5 for a good four months and shorted them in the $60 range, seeing the writing on the wall.
#5 of 20
Re: A few notes on the Retired Stocks [57sweptside] by mikedrud
Sep 02, 2008 (8:07 am)
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Replying to: 57sweptside (Sep 01, 2008 11:32 am)

57sweptside,
 
Great questions.
 
Here are some answers:
 
The MTD is not accurate right now in the sense that we will back-date the results based on final sales and the adjustments we'll make to accounts. This will make it tricky for us to separate out those adjustments from gains/losses players incur from 9/1 on, but we'll do it.
 
For those people who have no available cash because of the "freeze" on retired holdings, well, that's just part of the game. It is a limitation, sure, but it adds to the overall strategy.
 
We'll see what happens. As you mentioned, this is the first retirement period so we have to see how it goes before we determine other ways of doing all of this.
#6 of 20
Re: A few notes on the Retired Stocks [mikedrud] by thegrocer
Sep 02, 2008 (8:34 am)
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Replying to: mikedrud (Sep 02, 2008 8:07 am)

Mike,
 
Will anyone with less than $1 million at the end of the month be purged from the final list? Or is that just a factor in winning the monthly prize?
#7 of 20
Re: A few notes on the Retired Stocks [thegrocer] by mikedrud
Sep 02, 2008 (8:50 am)
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Replying to: thegrocer (Sep 02, 2008 8:34 am)

That's just a factor in winning the monthly prize. We only "purge" cheaters.
#8 of 20
Re: [thegrocer] by pmc4
Sep 02, 2008 (8:55 am)
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Replying to: thegrocer (Sep 01, 2008 3:47 pm)

You couldn't have made out very well on the Yukon hybrid, since the bid price was so high (the bid on the Yukon was an astonishing $86 when it was at $18 four days ago. It was around $79 when Yukon was at $27), even though GM sold less than 1,000 Yukon hybrids during the 6 months.
Just about all my shorts underperformed in sales, which is good for me. The only lackluster short was the Lexus LX 570, which sold around 5K units.
And you're correct--if you did short Yukon, M3 or A5 along time ago and didn't cover you'll be in the Top 10, for sure.
#9 of 20
Re: A few notes on the Retired Stocks [mikedrud] by 57sweptside
Sep 02, 2008 (11:12 am)
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Replying to: mikedrud (Sep 02, 2008 8:07 am)

I'm loving the game, and because it is only a game (and because I'm doing so well!) I'm just going with the flow. You're doing a great job on keeping things running smoothly, but I was taken aback by your comments about the limitation of the game and the freeze "add(ing) to the overall strategy". Is this saying that there will always be a delay after retirement of stocks?
 
I didn't expect the retirement to go off without a hitch, and you even warned of a delay in posting results, however why couldn't you pay out on the what people were holding on 8/31 at the price that it closed at, and then do the correction later?
 
By the time you announced that there would be a delay in determining the final sales values, I was way to deep into my shorts. I couldn't bail out of stocks I was holding, because stocks like M3 swung up at the end despite the fact that the sales figures would be far below 29,940 that the price reflects. The jump turned a $300k profit into a $100k profit, but it will surely be closer to a $700k profit upon settlement. It doesn't make sense to give up the minimal gains (which will be substantial on retirement reconcilliation) on the possibility of making a few bucks on normal trading (or even an IPO).
 
Keep up the great work, Mike.
#10 of 20
Re: A few notes on the Retired Stocks [57sweptside] by mikedrud
Sep 02, 2008 (12:28 pm)
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Replying to: 57sweptside (Sep 02, 2008 11:12 am)

The retirement of stocks issue is really complicated unfortunately. We have to delay by a few days because official sales data doesn't come out until at least the 1st of the next month, sometimes (as is the case this month, with a holiday on 9/1), the sales data doesn't come out until the 2nd or 3rd. We have to verify all numbers as best we can and then and only then can we "correct" the marketplace.
 
I figure most stocks thus far have been vastly overvalued, and I just short as we near the end of the month. Your short positions will automatically cover, so you should make more $$$ there (even if you are frozen for a few days).
 
We are also thinking of not IPOing any new stocks the week we freeze retired stocks and correct the market, so no one has to miss out on the action. We will begin doing this next month, when a couple more stocks retire at the end of September.
 
August was also an anomaly. Normally, only a few stocks will retire at the end of any given month. We had a bunch in August, because these were stocks we went live with when we launched the game in late February.
 
I appreciate your feedback. Trust me, we're listening.
 
Mike

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