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This game is like way wrong!

23 messages,  Last post on Sep 05, 2008 at 9:06 AM

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#4 of 23
Re: This game is like way wrong! [pmc4] by mikedrud
Aug 18, 2008 (8:05 am)
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Replying to: pmc4 (Aug 16, 2008 2:45 pm)

There is only one fault with what you are saying:
 
If you just sit back and wait for the stocks to retire, then you will profit greatly, but not quite as well as those who are actively building their portfolios in the interim.
 
We haven't done this before, so it will be interesting to see how this shakes out. A lot of people who had shorted stocks and sat on those positions will rocket up the standings, but who will actually win? I think someone who is active in the meantime and also shorts several of the stocks with their bundle of CSX dollars.
 
There are certainly many problems with the game, but eventually we will make changes to address many of those concerns (more info on that in September).
 
Thanks,
 
Mike
CSX Game Supervisor
#5 of 23
Re: This game is like way wrong! [mikedrud] by louiswei
Aug 18, 2008 (8:43 am)
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Replying to: mikedrud (Aug 18, 2008 8:05 am)

If you just sit back and wait for the stocks to retire, then you will profit greatly, but not quite as well as those who are actively building their portfolios in the interim.
 
But Mike, doesn't that concept totally defeat the purpose of this game? If that's the case then the game can go on with stock symbols like A, B, C, D... instead of the actually car models.
 
I thought the purpose of the game is to correctly predict the 6-month sales figures instead of who can manipulate a virtual stock market the best.
 
 
#6 of 23
Re: This game is like way wrong! [louiswei] by mikedrud
Aug 18, 2008 (11:43 am)
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Replying to: louiswei (Aug 18, 2008 8:43 am)

Absolutely, it does go against the original concept of the game, but we can't prevent the players from day-trading like nuts to win monthly prizes/build their net increases.
 
Thus, we will eventually make extensive changes to the game, but for now, this is the limit of the design as it is now.
#7 of 23
Re: This game is like way wrong! [mikedrud] by pmc4
Aug 18, 2008 (2:39 pm)
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Replying to: mikedrud (Aug 18, 2008 11:43 am)

Another problem is that we've got like six people in the Top Eight who each have an exact 78.61% gain on their portfolio since the start of the month.
This means one of two things:
1. All six players are making the exact same trades and at exactly the same time even though they're (supposed to be) six different players who have no idea what each are trading and do not know each other, or:
2. All six players are actually the same player under different aliases. Or, each player of the six are corresponding with each other.
 
In any event, it screws up the integrity of the game.
 
bigjaw 78.61%
caddyfanantic 78.61%
buyerseller 78.61%
panamaj 78.61%
johnreg 78.61%
bigblock427 78.61%
#8 of 23
Re: This game is like way wrong! [pmc4] by mikedrud
Aug 18, 2008 (2:41 pm)
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Replying to: pmc4 (Aug 18, 2008 2:39 pm)

I will check into this issue.
#9 of 23
Re: This game is like way wrong! [louiswei] by chung
Aug 19, 2008 (8:10 am)
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Replying to: louiswei (Aug 18, 2008 8:43 am)

What you are saying is not completely true. Although Edmunds provides us the forecast, but they are not necessarily accurate. Some cars that are retiring end of this month might have outperformed the Edmunds sales forecast while other have underperformed. Therefore you have to select the cars to buy or short according to their sales.
#10 of 23
Re: This game is like way wrong! [chung] by mikedrud
Aug 19, 2008 (8:28 am)
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Replying to: chung (Aug 19, 2008 8:10 am)

Absolutely right, chung. The numbers are not written in concrete -- they are forecasts, and with the wild swing in the overall financial markets and in the automotive sector in particular this year, some of the estimates will be off. Will the results be higher or lower and by how much?
 
Not enough to completely rock anyone's world, but enough to add some guesstimation into the process.
#11 of 23
Re: This game is like way wrong! [chung] by louiswei
Aug 19, 2008 (10:19 am)
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Replying to: chung (Aug 19, 2008 8:10 am)

Well you are right, and that's where the "prediction" comes in and that's the whole point of the game!!
 
The question I raised is that at least until now all the winners and leaders are making their "virtual fortunes" on manipulating the market instead of making the accurate predictions. Which is totally against the principal of this game.
 
No?
#12 of 23
Re: This game is like way wrong! [louiswei] by chung
Aug 19, 2008 (10:39 am)
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Replying to: louiswei (Aug 19, 2008 10:19 am)

I agree until now all the winners (including myself) created virtual wealth and won the prize by manipulating the market. Since the stocks were not retiring for months, there were enough players who made bad bets. As you might seen past few days, the stocks which will retiring at the end of the month have dropped significantly as it should have months ago. I think after this month, the players will be more reasonable in terms of setting these virtual prices.
 
It was brought up that monthly prize is against the principal of this game because players have to maximize their monthly winnings rather than making "accurate" prediction of sales. However, I believe it wont be a problem anymore since there will be always few stocks retiring from now on for almost every month and those stocks will be the ones that are most heavily traded.
 
One more suggestion, I think the new players (less than 1 month old prior starting date for eligibility) should not eligible for the prize. There has been too many players with multiple accounts which makes other players to lose the interest of game.
 
These are just my 2 cents. They might be correct or wrong assumptions.
#13 of 23
Re: This game is like way wrong! [mikedrud] by yuant
Aug 24, 2008 (10:31 am)
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Replying to: mikedrud (Aug 18, 2008 8:05 am)

As I've pointed out in the past, this are really financially settled futures. You may want to research how the CME or the ICE handles things. The main thing that bothers me about the way this game works is that when you're buying/selling shares, there's no real counterparty. Or at least it's not clear that there is one. It just "effects" the trade price. How it does so is not really clear. If you just have a bid/ask system like real exchanges, then it's clear how the prices move.
 
I have a feeling that a bid/ask system and also commissions on each trade would drastically change the dynamics of day trading.
 
I think the biggest challenge you have is to make sure people don't have multiple accounts. Even if you stop an individual from creating more than one account, people could still cheat in groups with agreements to split prizes or something.

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