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To "grocer" "neurotic" and other leaders

8 messages,  Last post on Aug 08, 2008 at 8:01 AM

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#1 of 8 To "grocer" "neurotic" and other leaders by mikedrud

Aug 06, 2008 (9:39 am)

I'm looking into the top two leaders for this month. Since the rest of you guys really follow the action (I know from watching the game action and your participation on these forum pages), I'm trying to make sure the leaders aren't cheating.
 
More details soon as I continue to investigate.
 
Mike
CSX Game Supervisor

#2 of 8 Re: To "grocer" "neurotic" and other leaders [mikedrud] by thegrocer

Aug 06, 2008 (10:00 am)

Replying to: mikedrud (Aug 06, 2008 9:39 am)
I ran the numbers and only really wondered about audirstock...380% gain on $71,775? mtrullinger started with $945,416 and put up a $2,700,000 profit on an IPO day...something I did myself with only $350,000 in cash...so his number seems reasonable. Plus I don't recall seeing that user name around before unlike audirstock who was sitting on No. 1 before the IPO.
 
I have to say my jump was dumb luck and the month is long...my long term holdings put me in the top 100 for MTD gain and then a fortuitous IPO put me in the top five. (I got in a $7, sold off a big chunk at $44, and then sold off the rest in $25 to $35 range).

#3 of 8 Re: To "grocer" "neurotic" and other leaders [thegrocer] by mikedrud

Aug 06, 2008 (12:49 pm)

Replying to: thegrocer (Aug 06, 2008 10:00 am)
I'm looking into his account specifically and we'll deal with it shortly. His activity led me to look further. I hear you on those crazy gains.

#4 of 8 by mtrullinger

Aug 06, 2008 (2:11 pm)

Thanks Mike. I'm trying to figure out the most I can end the month with now that I used my profits yesterday to max out my portfolio in shorts.
 
In regards to the sales data you guys are capturing and using for the game, are you able to break out the sales by model year so you can tell if a transaction is for the old model year or new model year for the redesigned vehicles?
 
Like the 09 TSX for example landed on lots the second half of April so the April sales data consists of some 08 transactions as well. But your totals on the blog didn't include any April TSX sales (2602 transactions) that I know consisted of some 09s.
 
I guess you might make the 6 month period consist of the first full 6 months of sales so you wouldn't need to worry about those weeks right at launch where both the new and old cars are on the lots at the same time.
 
The only reason I'm wondering this is for those high volume vehicles (over say 50K), the end of the initial 6 months of sales could swing a bit if you did or did not count those initial transactions (before the first full month of sales).

#5 of 8 Re: [mtrullinger] by mikedrud

Aug 06, 2008 (4:19 pm)

Replying to: mtrullinger (Aug 06, 2008 2:11 pm)
You said it best:
 
"I guess you might make the 6 month period consist of the first full 6 months of sales so you wouldn't need to worry about those weeks right at launch where both the new and old cars are on the lots at the same time."
 
But there is room for fluctuations, as you say, because we don't necessarily include all sales of each vehicle. We are approximating unit sales based on a date by which the vehicles are in wide release across the U.S. This does add some complexity to the estimations. Even internally, we had some challenges making our estimations, but our guys are good at that (they weigh a lot of disparate data points, because they have to do this kind of estimating for Edmunds in general).
 
Part of the interest here is that people might think our estimations are a little off, and if that's true, the final sales (based on game dates) figures will reset the values of each stock above or below our estimates. The estimates should be close, though, to be honest.
 
Although, with the overall constriction of the market, some players might bet that sales are down overall, so we might have been overly optimistic in some of our predictions too.
 
Does any of this mess make sense?

#6 of 8 by mtrullinger

Aug 07, 2008 (1:20 pm)

Perfect sense. Thanks for clearing that up.

#7 of 8 by stig1

Aug 07, 2008 (2:15 pm)

It should be a very very interesting month.

#8 of 8 Re: [stig1] by felonious

Aug 08, 2008 (8:01 am)

Replying to: stig1 (Aug 07, 2008 2:15 pm)
It already is!

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