Last post on Mar 31, 2008 at 1:44 PM
You are in the Car Stock Exchange
What is this discussion about?
AM General Hummer, Future Vehicle
#21 of 27 Re: What is happening?
Mar 26, 2008 (7:06 pm)
I thought that the prices of stock are a function of money supply (number of players putting their money into stocks), versus the finite number of stocks. I do not understand the assumption that the price of any stock in this game should reflect the projected volume. I do not believe that any stock price is even close to the actual projected sales volume. If 500 people are putting money into flex, the flex stock jumps up. When later they are cashing in to get the profits out, then flex value is going down. Also, as new players join in and get their own 1 million CSV dollars, they add to the money supply that chases the limited number of stocks in this game. Same, as some players get bored and stop playing, their stocks likely get abandoned and have no impact on the price movement. This game as far as I can see does support constant buying and selling to pocket on the price movement. Should the game provide futures, not stocks, the game would be more realistic to what the game is claiming to do. But futures are boring for those who are looking for an instant profit, as you need to first observe the real sales volume (on which you make your future price assessment) which takes time, then see how the futures market is reacting. Anyway, I am still enjoying the game, but this is more about the crowd behavior, having fun than real future sales volume prediction.
#22 of 27 Re: What is happening? [mccccland]
Mar 27, 2008 (10:14 am)
You make a good point, and the game certainly reflect more of a day-trading, enthusiasm-driven market than a true prediction market. We are analyzing what kind of changes we can make to clean up some of the pages and to help with the prediction aspect of our goals. We'll keep all of you up-to-date on changes to expect for the future.
CSX Game Supervisor
#23 of 27 Re: What is happening? [mikedrud]
Mar 28, 2008 (5:07 pm)
Consider futures instead of stocks, based on monthly and annual sales targets. Futures focus on predicting future prices of goods. Price should reflect the desirebility level of a specific future contract, not the actual prediction. You can make trading futures easier by providing links to the sales data. Markets need information in order to function properly. Making easier on game players to access data based on which they can make educated decisions will in my opinion bring the game closer to your objective. For example, you may consider offering two types of contracts, next month sales and either end of year or end of mid-year sales. Separate the price of the contracts from what the contract is for. My two cents. Good luck with modifications/changes.
#24 of 27 Re: What is happening? [mccccland]
Mar 28, 2008 (5:33 pm)
This is actually an idea we've discussed, and I think it's a good idea -- although linking you to monthly sales data or other stories would be somewhat of a challenge. Monthly numbers are publicly available after the fact and we can offer links in our "Automotive News" areas on pages when we see stories involving the auto industry and sales trends, but there isn't exactly a database or online resource center for market predictions on a month-to-month basis.
Nevertheless, monthly-expiring funds/indexes could be a part of the future. More info on that soon.
Thanks for the feedback,
CSX Game Supervisor
#25 of 27 Re: What is happening? [mccccland]
Mar 31, 2008 (11:30 am)
I do not understand the assumption that the price of any stock in this game should reflect the projected volume. I do not believe that any stock price is even close to the actual projected sales volume. If 500 people are putting money into flex, the flex stock jumps up. When later they are cashing in to get the profits out, then flex value is going down.
True, but keep in mind everyone holding short positions on these overpriced stocks will automatically be compensated for the difference when the retire date hits. It's not going to win anyone the game, but it should certainly result in some substantial shifts in position.
#26 of 27 Re: What is happening? [viss1]
Mar 31, 2008 (11:46 am)
The new IPO should have relatively same sales projection (no more under 5K projected sales).. the market insanity that forecast of 25K sales projection is... umm.. insane, but August will be a big pay day for a lot of short position players
#27 of 27 Re: What is happening? [chung]
Mar 31, 2008 (1:44 pm)
ok.. my last post does not make sense.. this was what I was trying to say...
The new IPO should have relatively same sales projection with the rest of stocks (hopefully more than 10K and under 80K) so that people dont get confused by huge sales projection between two cars (e.g. Corolla vs IS-F). The market is fairly insane enough to have relatively same absolute stock price regardless the car's sales projection. It means people clearly do not understand the value of "short" or we have too many day-trader who refuse to let the price go down (at least for now). I think the way many people will change after August, but that is long time ahead to go..
Also this is just my opinion, but we need to retire Corolla early and avoid this whole price misconception. (Honda pilot can not be more than $100 and Corolla can not be less than $100)