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#1 of 453 Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM, To Become #1 By 2010?
Mar 13, 2008 (5:18 am)
Volkswagen recently said that by 2010 it can produce 10 million vehicles and pass Toyota and General Motors, to become the world's largest car company.
According to the (London) Sunday Times, "To those who suggest that closing a 3m vehicle gap (Toyota produced 9.4m last year) is a very tall order, company management explains that, in 2006, the number of conventional passenger cars made by Volkswagen and Toyota was fairly similar -- 5.2m for Volkswagen and 5.5m for Toyota -- and that the difference is made up by 4x4s, people carriers' and light trucks."
Volkswagen introduced a full range of these multi-purpose vehicles only recently, but apparently they'll play an important role in VW's future growth.
The big question I have on this is whether VW's more exciting designs and dynamic driving experience can offset Toyota's superior reliability record, and/or whether VW can narrow the reliability gap sufficiently to reach this ambitious goal. Also, I wouldn't totally discount the possibility that GM may retain its #1 position (or regain it, if it loses it in '08). Richard Waggoner has publicly stated that GM will not passively concede its world sales leadership to Toyota, but will, instead, fight to retain it. Official statistics indicate that GM squeaked by Toyota in '07, but, as we know, Toyota has the momentum.
One thing to consider is that because Toyota has been so strong in the U.S., surpassing Chrysler, then Ford in our market, we may tend to overestimate Toyota's strength vis-a-vis GM and VW worldwide.
Your thoughts on all this?
#2 of 453 Re: Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM, To Become #1 By 2010? [hpmctorque]
Mar 13, 2008 (6:33 am)
China. The more important questions is whether VW has the production capacity and supplier infrastructure to build 10 million cars, because they need to have it in place now to build 10m cars the year after next.
#3 of 453 Re: Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM, To Become #1 By 2010? [bumpy]
Mar 13, 2008 (7:28 am)
I can tell you that where I was in China five and a half years ago there were Volkswagen a plenty. Mostly diesel Jettas that were taxis. They were all over the place.
#4 of 453 Re: Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM, To Become #1 By 2010? (bumpy)
Mar 13, 2008 (8:56 am)
Whether or not VW has the production capacity - and my guess is that they probably do, with overtime - 2010 seems unrealistically soon for such a change. I think it will take many years, and much better performance in North America, if VW is to indeed achieve this goal. Is it possible, at a later date, say, by 2018? I think it's possible.
#5 of 453 Re: Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM, To Become #1 By 2010? (bumpy) [hpmctorqu
Mar 13, 2008 (9:23 am)
I think as the Chinese market expands, VW will be one of the leaders. Toyota and the other Japanese companies will have a harder time in the market. There is still a lot of animosity between the two countries.
#6 of 453 Re: Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM, To Become #1 By 2010? (bumpy) [hpmctorqu
Mar 13, 2008 (9:58 am)
Yes, they are starting to let Toyota get a foothold but there is long animosity between the two countries.
Volkswagen has already established a firm foundation in China. If their market continues to grow the way it is now VW will be in good shape. Number 1 by 2010? No, I don't think so but I could see them selling that many cars not long after that.
That said, GM isn't exactly unheard of in China either. Buick there has the market segment that they'd like to have over here.
#7 of 453 Re: Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM, To Become #1 By 2010? (bumpy) [hpmctorqu [fezo]
Mar 13, 2008 (11:12 am)
Buick sells all kinds of cars in China from a subcompact called the Sail to a really nice luxury LaCrosse and Royaum. Geeze, if NA Buicks were that nice, who needs a Cadillac? I'm starting to see a nice change for NA Buicks in the form of the Enclave and Lucerne. Heck, even the LaCrosse as it is is a quantum leap from the dismal Centuries and Regals of the recent past.
VW may very well overtake Toyota and GM in the world market if it captures the majority share of the Chinese market, but it won't overtake either in the NA market.
#8 of 453 Re: Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM, To Become #1 By 2010? (bumpy) [lemko]
Mar 13, 2008 (12:13 pm)
I can't imagine how VW makes a better dent in the NA market. They had it just about perfect in the 2000 model year with a Passat as perfect as it was going to get and then had to deal with typical VW issues. Glitchy electrical systems and overall lousy reliability.
It will take many years of reliable Volkswagens to get rid of that image.
#9 of 453 Re: Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM, To Become #1 By 2010? (bumpy) [fezo]
Mar 13, 2008 (1:27 pm)
VW has been held back selling their real economy cars here with diesel engines. I think much of their reliability problems are in those engines they bang together for our market. I had no issues with my 05 Passat TDI. I would imagine worldwide they sell over 50% diesel cars.
#10 of 453 Re: Can VW Overtake Toyota and GM, To Become #1 By 2010? (bumpy) [gagrice]
Mar 13, 2008 (2:53 pm)
How long did you have that Passat? I have a friend who had a 2000 (yeah, we're doing anecdotal evidence for a minute) with the six and it seemed pretty good for a few years but then had some really major issues.
I very nearly bought a 2000 Passat when I got my Accord. Having once owned a Rabbit I got cold feet.... Maybe just as well. The only VW dealer within convenient range burned down a few months later.