Last post on Mar 12, 2008 at 10:13 AM
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Automotive News, Future Vehicle
#1 of 10 I like the forecast and volume columns
Mar 11, 2008 (11:14 am)
Very interesting stuff, good job guys.
One idea I had is you could display the forecast as a stock price instead of a unit volume, that way it would really drive home the idea that it will eventually be paid out at that amount, and then sort of bypass some of the confusion people have of dividing unit sales by 1,000 to get the retirement price.
In other words, it would be a "Forecasted Retirement Price" - then you could even add a column to the profile that gave a percentage change between current holdings and what the eventual forecast retirement price would be.
#2 of 10 Re: I like the forecast and volume columns [doctorlove]
Mar 11, 2008 (11:21 am)
Yes, that's something I thought about too. Let me mull that over some more, but it's definitely a good idea.
We at least wanted to respond to overwhelming demand for volume and forecast data on that page, and I think it's a good addition.
We've discussed other changes too, but those will take a little more time to implement.
#3 of 10 volume information
Mar 11, 2008 (12:08 pm)
Is the volume information share traded?
#4 of 10 Re: volume information [chung]
Mar 11, 2008 (12:12 pm)
Yes, it is. The volume represents shared traded.
Mar 11, 2008 (4:24 pm)
I can't believe how much volume the Corolla is trading. Even with all my money, I couldn't trade more than 6,000 times. The payoffs can't be significant as you have to spend $500 just to make $50.
#6 of 10 Re: Corolla [estreka]
Mar 11, 2008 (4:30 pm)
now i think corolla is the stock how doctorlove is making a killing.. I am thinking he is trading constantly and somehow beating the market.. wondering if there is calcuation error or something..
$50 for $500 investment is 10% gain/loss and none of other stocks have such movement (I rarely see honda pilot changing $7~$8 share price to gain/lose same %) But I am still wondering how he can make so much money.. beating everyone....
#7 of 10 Re: Corolla [chung]
Mar 11, 2008 (4:34 pm)
lol you don't have much less money than me chung, you've been doing pretty well and wouldn't be surprised if you passed me one of these days. What did it for me today was getting 90,000 shares of the RL at about 8 bucks.
#8 of 10 Re: Corolla [doctorlove]
Mar 11, 2008 (4:41 pm)
interesting.. i could also buy only 90,000 shares although it was less than 25% of my holdings... Mike could you check this out?
#9 of 10 Re: Corolla [chung]
Mar 11, 2008 (4:49 pm)
Same thing happened to me. I'm guessing 90K is a limit?
#10 of 10 Re: I like the forecast and volume columns [doctorlove]
Mar 12, 2008 (10:13 am)
This is an interesting idea, but it seems to me (based on the info presented on the site and on the CSX discussion boards) that the stocks will not necessarily be paid out at the price equivalent of their forecasts. This is because the forecast is only the Edmunds analysts' best guess as to a vehicle's sales, not the actual sales, whereas I'm pretty sure the payout will be correlated the real-life figure.
It makes a lot of sense, of course, for traders to trade the stock with a view to its predicted unit sales, as unless the Edmunds analysts are full of crap (which I doubt), the payout will be somewhere near the forecast. But getting people to perfectly hit the forecast, as opposed to trade the vehicles based on their opinion of them, may take some of the "prediction" aspect out of the market.