Last post on Sep 28, 2012 at 6:48 PM
You are in the Classic Cars
What is this discussion about?
#285 of 314 Re: Dow @ 12,950 and S& P 500 @ 1,361 Up Smartly [Mr_Shiftright]
Feb 18, 2012 (9:28 am)
Regarding BMWs, I think E30s can be great buys for someone looking for something newer than the 2002 and 320. I also think they're somewhat better suited for today's roads than those older models.
#286 of 314 Re: Dow @ 12,950 and S& P 500 @ 1,361 Up Smartly [hpmctorque]
by MrShift@Edmunds HOST
Feb 18, 2012 (9:59 am)
True true but they are rather ubiquitous and not very distinctive in styling, so they kind of get lost out there.
I have a friend who powered his 2003 with an M3 motor---that's a nice combo.
#287 of 314 Re: Dow @ 12,950 and S& P 500 @ 1,361 Up Smartly [Mr_Shiftright]
Feb 18, 2012 (9:08 pm)
Well, okay, I guess I'm influenced by the fact that when I see one I miss the one I had.
I happened to see a maroon 325i 4-door in someone's driveway tonight, that by the light of the moon and my headlights seemed in nice condition. Mine was a black 2-door with 5-speed and 126,000 miles when I sold it, but I don't mind the 4-doors. I suppose the 4-speed automatic wouldn't be bad with the torquey ETA engine, although I prefer the manual.
#288 of 314 Re: Dow @ 12,950 and S& P 500 @ 1,361 Up Smartly [hpmctorque]
Feb 19, 2012 (6:16 am)
Both major domestic equity indices have posted strong recoveries from their '09 lows. Shifty, or anyone who follows prices, can you give us an update on classic and collector cars, including the more affordable ones that middle class enthusiasts can afford? Thanks in advance.
I'll be curious to see how prices are at the various car corrals this season. It does seem like, for the past few years, prices have become more reasonable (although that doesn't necessarily mean "reasonable"!)
Even though the stock market has been rallying of late, I don't know if that has much of a bearing on your typical middle-class car enthusiast. I remember back in October, 2007, which was when the market peaked before the "Great Recession" kicked in, there was a sort of fear in the air at the Fall Carlisle swap meet that year. You could almost smell it. Sellers were cutting prices, complaining about the economy, buyers weren't buying. And, I don't know if this is any sort of economic barometer, but there were a lot of Corvettes for sale at the show that year. Usually, you don't see that many at the Spring/Fall swap meets, because they have a show in August dedicated entirely to the Corvette.
I'd imagine that a lot of middle class/blue collar/etc enthusiasts have also been taken out of the market, over the past few years. A lot of people lost their jobs and had to raid their 401k, IRA, and other assets, at a considerable loss, just to make ends meet. Chances are, many of those people will never completely financially recover.
Checking the local real estate listings, it looks like about 3/4 of all listings in my neighborhood are short sales. And those that aren't appear to fall into two categories: 1) people who have lived in their homes a long time, well before the run-up in prices and 2) listings that probably will become short sales or foreclosures, but for the time being are priced way too high, because of the amount owed on them. So, it looks like that HELOC gravy train has left the station.
So, even though the stock markets have made some major gains, a lot of that easy money for the masses has dried up. I'm sure the high-end market, Barrett-Jackson and the like, is doing fine, still getting drunk and over-bidding on cars like they're the Great Gatsby or something. But, they're usually not the types hanging out at Carlisle and similar places.
I'm thinking about getting another car this year. The common sense side of me is telling me to get something new and fuel-efficient, like a 4-cyl Altima, Fusion, etc. But, there's another part of me that is thinking about seeing if there's something that catches my eye at Carlisle this year.
#289 of 314 Re: Dow @ 12,950 and S& P 500 @ 1,361 Up Smartly [andre1969]
by MrShift@Edmunds HOST
Feb 19, 2012 (6:37 pm)
I haven't seen much panic selling. If anything, people are sitting on their cash more, and bargaining a bit harder when they do bite--but they are still shopping.
#290 of 314 While watching Mecum
May 28, 2012 (11:23 am)
I'm constantly amazed at the number of common looking guys having the money to afford the purchases made on that show. And while observing the process I think, "What Depression?"
Remembering there are a few buyers (for others) with boyish smiling faces, the majority are old men with younger women paying through the nose for the car she wants as well.
Not all could be retired government employees with unlimited retirement funds, forever.
#291 of 314 Re: While watching Mecum [euphonium]
by MrShift@Edmunds HOST
May 28, 2012 (6:16 pm)
Well there's been a tremendous transfer of inherited wealth in the USA in the last 10 years or so, so that might explain it. I certainly know a lot of people like that.
#292 of 314 Re: While watching Mecum [Mr_Shiftright]
May 29, 2012 (4:45 pm)
That's true. The greatest generation has been dying off en masse, and because of their depression era childhoods, a lot of them were "thrifty" (to put it nicely) and socked away savings and other investments. That generation beget the boomers, who are still spending like it is going out of style. My generation is the children of those spenders, and we won't benefit so much from parental largesse. My mother will inherit more than I, and I will wager everything that's a standard pattern.
I wonder if there will be much market for a lot of these cars once the boomers are gone, especially if the economic spectrum continues to devolve.
#293 of 314 Re: While watching Mecum [fintail]
by MrShift@Edmunds HOST
May 29, 2012 (5:16 pm)
No I don't think so. The collector car hobby is an end game, for sure. I mean, how many people collect stagecoaches?
it's not like the horse lovers or dog lovers, where each generation can renew the same adoration for the object of their desires. Lots of young people could care less about old cars---I mean, they'll point and say how neat they are and all that, but restore them, or pay $80K for one? I don't think so.
it's hard to say, but I'd guess the car hobby will devolve back to what it once was before mass media whipped it into a frenzy. You had the Model T and Model A people quietly doing their thing, you had some car museums, and you had a few wealthy people collecting historically significant cars that were hand-built works of art.
But really, cars built after the 1930 are slammed together mass produced products, and I just don't see the inheritors of these cars wanting to care for them.
So then you'll have a tremendous glut of old cars, which will drive down prices, which will dampen the motivation of the "investors", which will shrink the hobby, which will make lavish car shows untenable, etc etc.
They'll always be people who love old car, in the same way that a niche right now loves brass era stuff---but it'll be a lot smaller group of people---maybe 5% of what it is now, IMHO.
#294 of 314 Re: While watching Mecum [Mr_Shiftright]
May 29, 2012 (6:15 pm)
I wish brass era stuff would collapse, I have always loved Brighton era cars. But there seems to be more than enough demand to work up the small supply.
In another 40 or so years, I suspect a lot of these muscle cars that people have chased will be real white elephants, and common cars will simply be relics. Model T-A era stuff is going that way already, and when the boomers are gone, few will want it, I think.