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How The 35 mpg Law By 2020 Will Affect The Cars We Will Drive

538 messages,  Last post on Jul 31, 2008 at 6:28 AM

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#108 of 538
Re: This will never happen [smithed] by nippononly
Dec 26, 2007 (7:10 am)
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Replying to: smithed (Dec 26, 2007 7:05 am)

Nah, even if you have a fear of new technology or the cost of it, this law shouldn't worry you. Most of the big automakers are not far off meeting this goal now, and CERTAINLY people will not be forced to drive golf carts.
#109 of 538
Re: This will never happen [nippononly] by smithed
Dec 26, 2007 (7:24 am)
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Replying to: nippononly (Dec 26, 2007 7:10 am)

Yeah, this is not just cars, but SUVs and pickups, too. Businesses that need trucks are not going to like this.
#110 of 538
Re: This will never happen [smithed] by nippononly
Dec 26, 2007 (9:17 am)
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Replying to: smithed (Dec 26, 2007 7:24 am)

But businesses may actually benefit from this, financially. Don't they get to write off the expense associated with buying a truck, and the subsequent depreciation? So if they have to pay a bit more to buy their trucks, they will get their money back, won't they?
 
Plus, as I understand it, the bigger they make the truck, the less fuel economy it has to have. So just like they did before to get around CAFE in the 90s (trucks over 8500 pounds GVWR were exempt from regulations), I assume they will just giant-size the new trucks after 2010.
#111 of 538
Re: King Harald at Hastings (dtownfb) [dtownfb] by tpe
Dec 26, 2007 (9:27 am)
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Replying to: dtownfb (Dec 23, 2007 5:42 pm)

There is fuel technology available today that would increase the fuel efficiency by 40%. It would require oil companies to change their refineries, i.e. invest money that they currently don't have to now.
 
That's a totally false statement. There is a fixed amount of energy (hydrocarbon molecules) in a barrel of oil. Nothing is going to change that. The refineries have become extremely efficient at extracting the maximum amount possible for useable/saleable products. In fact out of a 42 gallon barrel of oil the result is around 46 gallons of different hydrocarbon products, eg butane, propane, petrochemicals, gasoline, distillates. lubricants, asphalt, etc.. Not sure how that works but it's true. It is not in the refineries best financial interest to waste any portion of a barrel of oil. Certainly not 40%.
#112 of 538
Re: This will never happen [nippononly] by gagrice
Dec 26, 2007 (9:28 am)
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Replying to: nippononly (Dec 26, 2007 9:17 am)

So if they have to pay a bit more to buy their trucks, they will get their money back, won't they?
 
Not really. It means you pay less taxes on that money. It still behooves a business to get the best deal possible on vehicles.
#113 of 538
Re: This will never happen [smithed] by kdhspyder
Dec 26, 2007 (9:29 am)
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Replying to: smithed (Dec 26, 2007 7:05 am)

This is always your choice if in 2020 you wish to drive around in a 90s vintage vehicle then go for it. But...
 
The problem with this is if you do keep your 80s or 90s vintage large vehicles which presumably will be getting 16-20 mpg and fuel costs $7-$10 per gallon how satisfied will you paying $150 - $200 on each fill up when others are paying half that amount, driving further with the same power that you have.
#114 of 538
Re: This will never happen [nippononly] by tpe
Dec 26, 2007 (9:39 am)
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Replying to: nippononly (Dec 26, 2007 9:17 am)

My personal opinion is that this 35 mpg mandate will be totally irrelevant long before 2020. Afterall, you can't consume more than the supply and we are getting very close, on a global level, to the demand matching the production capacity. At that point it becomes a bidding war between the consuming nations but there is still only so much to go around. By 2020 this 35 mpg CAFE will be the equivalent of a law being passed in Ethiopia that limits average food consumption to no more that 2,000 calories per day. It's meaningless. People will be driving 35+ mpg vehicles by this time not because they were forced to by these CAFE standards but because they were forced to by financial constraints and limited supplies. Of course the CAFE proponents will see how the fleet efficiency has improved and will congratulate themselves on this effective legislation.
#115 of 538
Re: This will never happen [smithed] by kdhspyder
Dec 26, 2007 (9:40 am)
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Replying to: smithed (Dec 26, 2007 7:24 am)

Please ...
 
Businesses will love these new improvements. Think man. If a business owner uses a truck now that gets 18 mpg, drives 20000-30000 mi/yr now and costs $4500 per year in fuel think what his fuel bill will be if diesel or gas is $9 / gallon. It's will be $13500 annually.
 
Now in 2020 if that same sized truck, with improvements, 'only' gets 25 mpg and fuel is $9 /gallon then the cost to drive the same 27000 miles is less than $10,000.
 
But this is not the main issue. The main issue is that if we don't stretch out the fuel supplies so that each vehicle uses less then it doesn't matter what vehicle the business uses or how efficient it is or isn't. If there is no fuel then that vehicle will just sit and the business owner can't use it. Is this what you'd like to see? Workers show up on the job and have to sit around because the vehicles and machines have no fuel?
#116 of 538
Re: This will never happen [tpe] by kdhspyder
Dec 26, 2007 (9:47 am)
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Replying to: tpe (Dec 26, 2007 9:39 am)

Well stated. The price of fuel will force our hand well before any of this goes into effect. In addition since the technology is already in place for even larger vehicles ( not the largest ) to meet the 2020 standards - today - it's not much a of a stretch to see where the path leads us.
 
For those demanding full-sized vehicles there's two likely scenarios that I can imagine. Some will still be made but they will be small numbers because the public just doesn't want to pay $200 to fill them up. Or these will be mandated to run exclusively on some form of locally produced biofuels, making them exempt from CAFE alltogether.
#117 of 538
Re: This will never happen [kdhspyder] by tpe
Dec 26, 2007 (10:04 am)
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Replying to: kdhspyder (Dec 26, 2007 9:47 am)

Or these will be mandated to run exclusively on some form of locally produced biofuels, making them exempt from CAFE alltogether
 
I'm not sure you could make a vehicle that would only be able to run on a biofuel. If you couldn't then it wouldn't make much sense to give them any kind of CAFE break because it would be just like this E85 flex fuel vehicles boondoggle. The only way most of these see any ethanol in their tanks is if its the oxygenation agent.
 
In addition to that I think one needs to consider how much oil is involved in producing a gallon of biofuel. If producing 2 gallons of biofuel requires 1 gallon of petroleum then I might be inclined to give this type of vehicle 2x it's mileage rating for CAFE purposes. Again that would require it only being capable of running on biofuel, which I question whether or not that is possible.

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