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How The 35 mpg Law By 2020 Will Affect The Cars We Will Drive - READ ONLY

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#1 of 543 How The 35 mpg Law By 2020 Will Affect The Cars We Will Drive by hpmctorque

Dec 15, 2007 (7:44 am)

If the newly revised 35 miles-per-gallon law by the year 2020 becomes law, as now appears very probable, it will have a profound effect on the auto industry and the vehicles we drive. It's difficult to predict the widespread effects of this law, without knowing such things as how consumers will react, what technological breakthroughs lie ahead, the effect fuel efficiency gains will have on sticker prices and the demand for new vehicles, and the value of used ones, etc., What's almost certain is that we'll see a lot of changes, as well as some unintended effects.
 
It's likely that most motorists haven't focused on the significance or this legislation, and are in for a surprise. I'll acknowledge that, other than an increase in hybrids and diesels, and reductions in average size and weight, the future of vehicle designs is hazy to me. What are your thoughts on this subject?

#2 of 543 Re: How The 35 mpg Law By 2020 Will Affect The Cars We Will Drive [hpmctorque] by volvomax

Dec 15, 2007 (8:40 am)

Replying to: hpmctorque (Dec 15, 2007 7:44 am)
In essence, what happened in the early 80's will happen again.
Cars will get smaller and less powerful.
Big SUV's will probably become extinct, at least until technology allows big cars to make a comeback.
The difference this time is, no manufacturer will have a headstart on the market.
Even the japanese make big gas sucking cars and trucks.
That is one of the reasons why Toyota is lobbying so ahrd against this legislation.

#3 of 543 Re: How The 35 mpg Law By 2020 Will Affect The Cars We Will Drive [volvomax by andys120

Dec 15, 2007 (2:51 pm)

Replying to: volvomax (Dec 15, 2007 8:40 am)
Big SUV's will probably become extinct, at least until technology allows big cars to make a comeback.
 
The technology already exists to meet 35 MPG standard in larger vehicles. Big Mercedes and BMW diesels do it all the time in Europe where fuel costs more than $6-$7/gal.
 
Toyota is resisting out of solidarity with the other makers and because businesses instinctively resist regulation.
 
IMO the legislation is a bit of a joke. Gas will probably cost as much as in Europe and Japan now so the market will demand better than 35 MPG well before 2020.
 
And yes I confidently predict that cars will cost more.

#4 of 543 I agree with everyone else. by boaz47

Dec 15, 2007 (3:40 pm)

cars will become slower, maybe smaller and more hybrids and diesels. I doubt if SUVs will cease to exist however. I have wondered if Gas is 8 bucks a gallon in the US what is the world will Asia and Europe do? It would seem to me they could be spending 16 bucks a gallon by then. If the fuel is increasing because oil costs more then it has to cost more in Europe and with all of their taxes they will get hammered. Because unlike the US they are already driving smaller lighter cars and using diesel to boot.

#5 of 543 Doomsday by 1stpik

Dec 15, 2007 (8:10 pm)

All these "oh, the humanity" cries regarding the new CAFE standards are nothing new. They began in 1975, when Congress first enacted the Energy Policy Conservation Act.
 
It applied to model year 1978 cars, and required the average fuel economy ratings of 18 mpg. Auto enthusiasts at the time recoiled in horror at such a requirement; said it would ruin the auto industry. It didn't. Then from 1978 until 1985, the CAFE standards increased gradually to 27.5 mpg. Auto makers whined all the way, but they met the standards, and the world did not end.
 
Then, from 1985 until the present day, a funny thing happened. The CAFE standards never increased. Not once. They're still set at 27.5 mpg. So car makers today aren't required to produce anything more efficient than what they made 22 years ago.
 
But now Congress has finally agreed to move up CAFE from 27 to 35 over the next 12 years, and all we hear is whining again. What B.S.! I guess the financial downfall of the Big Three has cut into the bribe money ..... OOPS! I mean "campaign contribution" money ..... that allowed auto makers to enjoy a 22 year free ride from Congress.
 
As usual, car companies simply want to churn out the same junk decade after decade, and have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the future.
 
Keep this in mind; the internal combustion engine is 100-year-old technology. Since its invention, we've seen the development of nuclear power, space travel, and the personal computer. Are we supposed to believe that in all that time, GM, Ford and Chrysler simply couldn't come up with anything better than a gasoline engine?
 
.

#6 of 543 : How The 35 mpg Law By 2020 Will Affect The Cars We Will Drive (andys120) by hpmctorque

Dec 15, 2007 (10:05 pm)

"The technology already exists to meet 35 MPG standard in larger vehicles. Big Mercedes and BMW diesels do it all the time in Europe..."
 
The '08 Mercedes E320 diesel gets 23 mpg city/32 highway. While they probably sell smaller Mercedes and BMW diesels in Europe, it's unlikely that they get 35 mpg in mixed driving. I think we're a long way off from what the proposed new law requires. It's a case of so close, yet so far, as it gets increasingly difficult to increase average fuel economy after you've done what's already been done, without big reductions in size and weight, or expensive technology, that will make cars significantly less affordable for the average motorist.
 
The '08 Toyota Yaris, with manual transmission is rated at 34 mpg city/40 highway, while the Prius is 48/45.

#7 of 543 Re: : How The 35 mpg Law By 2020 Will Affect The Cars We Will Drive (andys120) [hpmctorque] by andre1969

Dec 16, 2007 (7:19 am)

Replying to: hpmctorque (Dec 15, 2007 10:05 pm)
Where, exactly, are they pulling this 35 mpg number from? If it's, say, the average of the EPA/s unadjusted numbers for city/highway driving, 35 mpg for a fleet average shouldn't be too hard to attain. Basically, the numbers that the EPA used to publish throught 1984, before they adjusted them downward.
 
For instance, a 1984 Accord with a 5-speed manual got 30/42 in the lab tests, and they gave it a combined number (I think 55% city/45%highway) of 34. Once they started adjusting those numbers downward for 1985, to reflect more realistic driving conditions, it came out to 27/33, with a combined number of 29. And now that they've adjusted those numbers downward again for 2008, it's only rated at 23/30 with a combined number of 26.
 
Using the old, unadjusted numbers, even a big car like a 1984 Caprice with a 305/overdrive automatic scored pretty well, 17/28 with a combined number of 21. Using the 1985 numbers (or rather, a 1985 Caprice) equipped that way, the figures drop to 17/24, with a combined number of 19. With the 2008 numbers, it's down to 15/22, with a combined number of 18.
 
A 2007 Camry with the 4-cyl/automatic is EPA-rated at 24/34, with a combined number of 28, using that 1985-2007 style of rating. With the new 2008 ratings, it drops to 21/31 with a combined figure of 25. Those combined numbers really aren't that far off from the figures that the 1984-85 Accord posted. So I imagine that the combined raw number for Camry could be something like 28/44, with a combined figure of 33.
 
So when you figure that something like a 2007 Camry is basically the stereotype of a mass market car today, that 35 figure might not be too hard to meet, if it's that raw, unadjusted average number they're using. At least, with passenger cars. Where we're really going to get screwed is with trucks.

#8 of 543 Re: How The 35 mpg Law By 2020 Will Affect The Cars We Will Drive (andre1 by hpmctorque

Dec 16, 2007 (8:23 am)

Your overriding point, as I interpret it, that we need to know more details before we can discuss this topic intelligently, is very true. I presume the newest method of calculation (the 2008) will be used, but I'm not certain, and am basing my argument that achieving 35 mpg is likely to be challenging and expensive. Help, anyone?

#9 of 543 Re: How The 35 mpg Law By 2020 Will Affect The Cars We Will Drive (andre1 [hpmctorque] by andre1969

Dec 16, 2007 (9:09 am)

Replying to: hpmctorque (Dec 16, 2007 8:23 am)
I did some digging on the internet, and found that the CAFE fuel economy ratings actually come from NHTSA. Here's the website: http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/cars/rules/cafe/overview.htm
 
Here's an excerpt from it...
 
"EPA is responsible for calculating the average fuel economy for each manufacturer. CAFE certification is done either one of two ways: 1) The manufacturer provides its own fuel economy test data, or 2) the EPA will obtain a vehicle and test it in its Office of Transportation & Air Quality facility in Ann Arbor, MI. EPA will do actual tests on typically about 30% of the existing vehicle lines, using the same laboratory test that they use to measure exhaust emissions. The entire certification test procedure, including the vehicle test preparation, the actual running of the test on the dynamometer, the recording of the data, etc., is specified in Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations."
 
"Three different sets of fuel economy values- NHTSA’s CAFE values, EPA’s unadjusted dynamometer values, and EPA’s adjusted on-road values exist. NHTSA’s CAFE values are used to determine manufacturers’ compliance with the applicable average fuel economy standards and to develop its annual report, the Automotive Fuel Economy Program Annual Update. The EPA’s unadjusted dynamometer values are calculated from the emissions generated during the testing using a carbon balance equation. EPA knows the amount of carbon in the fuel, so by measuring the carbon compounds expelled in the exhaust they can calculate the fuel economy. EPA’s adjusted on-road values are those values listed in the Fuel Economy Guide and on new vehicle labels, adjusted to account for the in-use shortfall of EPA dynamometer test values. "
 
I find it a little confusing, but it sounds to me like the number they use for CAFE averaging is probably similar to the EPA's raw,unadjusted laboratory numbers.
 
I also found this blurb from a Wikipedia article on CAFE:
"The EPA laboratory measurements of MPG have consistently overestimated fuel economy. This results in a shortfall of about 15% in actual vs. measured CAFE goals. Starting with vehicles in model year 2008, the EPA is improving their estimates of MPG. This change does not affect CAFE ratings, only Consumer Guide values will change to reflect more realistic fuel efficiencies."
 
So it sounds like these down-rated EPA ratings they're putting on the Monroney stickers on cars have no bearing whatsoever on the CAFE standards.

#10 of 543 Re: How The 35 mpg Law By 2020 Will Affect The Cars We Will Drive (andre1 [ by gagrice

Dec 16, 2007 (9:23 am)

Replying to: andre1969 (Dec 16, 2007 9:09 am)
So it sounds like these down-rated EPA ratings they're putting on the Monroney stickers on cars have no bearing whatsoever on the CAFE standards.
 
That is how I would read that also. It seems that GM was given a 31.5 MPG rating on their PU trucks that are able to burn E85.
 
Manufacturers can earn CAFE “credits” to offset deficiencies in their CAFE performances. Specifically, when the average fuel economy of either the passenger car or light truck fleet for a particular model year exceeds the established standard, the manufacturer earns credits.
 
It makes it profitable for Toyota to sell lots of Prius to offset the Tundra and Sequoia gas guzzlers.

Messages Page 1 of 55

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