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GM News, New Models and Market Share

8076 messages,  Last post on Nov 11, 2009 at 4:54 PM

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#2979 of 8076
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [circlew] by 62vetteefp
Dec 29, 2008 (2:57 pm)
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Replying to: circlew (Dec 29, 2008 2:27 pm)

Took a look at WSJ. This is a list of top 20 vehicles for November. So the cars I listed (Cobalt and G6) were not in the top 20 for November but would be for the year.
 
What I do not understand is where I got my data for Cobalt/Civic/Corolla that said 65% drop. I know I posted it here yet the WSJ does not show that. Need to investigate.
 
Found the data. It was a 65% from May to November. May was the height of the gas price mania and November is at the low. And with that data it looks like the Compacts will probably keep their relative positions.
 
The Civic that was hot in May 2008 with 53,299 sales was not in November
   with 17,690 sales,(that is a 70% drop!!) according to the Automotive News Data Center. Ditto the Corolla, 52,826 sold in May 2008 versus 21,807 (60% drop) sold in November; and the Focus, 32,579 sold in May versus 8,194 sold in November.(75% DROP) Cobalt was down 65%.
#2980 of 8076
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [62vetteefp] by 62vetteefp
Dec 29, 2008 (3:18 pm)
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Replying to: 62vetteefp (Dec 29, 2008 2:57 pm)

But if you look at the chart it shows that before the price increase of gas in May trucks outsold cars and then from May til August cars outsold trucks and now trucks are now outselling cars.
 
Also Malibu was the only vehicle in November to actually increase volume from 2007 (35%).
 
Ram truck is 7th on the list. That shows that Chrysler has at least something to bargain with. If Nissan had the money they should pick up the truck part.
#2981 of 8076
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [62vetteefp] by circlew
Dec 29, 2008 (4:21 pm)
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Replying to: 62vetteefp (Dec 29, 2008 2:57 pm)

Interesting and thanks for that insight. Hopefully the economy turns soon but it looks rather bleak for now.
 
I am going to post a yearly sales chart after I format it later on.
 
Regards,
OW
#2982 of 8076
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [steve_] by circlew
Dec 29, 2008 (4:43 pm)
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Replying to: steve_ (Dec 29, 2008 2:36 pm)

Here is the chart for trailing twelve month sales Nov. '07 - '08. If December is as low as the last 2 months (very likely) and the economy worsens, there will be much turmoil in the auto industry in Q1 2009...and everyone will need more bailout cash!
 

 
Regards,
OW
#2983 of 8076
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [steve_] by kernick
Dec 30, 2008 (6:27 am)
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Replying to: steve_ (Dec 29, 2008 2:36 pm)

I think Edmunds is being far too optimistic, as I think the following supplier estimate (12/16/08) of the 2009 market is more valid. It looks like 9.3M is the expected number for North American sales.
 
"In October, Glendale-based Johnson Controls said it assumed there would be production of 12.3 million vehicles in North America and 21.2 million in Europe. The company's latest production estimates for 2009 are 9.3 million units in North America and 16.2 million in Europe."
 
http://www.jsonline.com/business/36225934.html
 
This downturn in the economy is not yet thru, with more dominos to fall. Commercial real estate is going to go bust next, unless they get several hundred billion in bailouts. And banks have not yet started taking losses on people's defaults on credit cards en-masse.
#2984 of 8076
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [kernick] by circlew
Dec 30, 2008 (6:42 am)
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Replying to: kernick (Dec 30, 2008 6:27 am)

I would think between 9 and 10 million units would be what to expect...unless things get worse and more jobs are lost. Don't need a car to go to unemployment...just apply on-line.
 
Regards,
OW
#2985 of 8076
GMAC by 62vetteefp
Dec 30, 2008 (6:59 am)
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It was asked before if GMAC would actually lend the money they have now received from the TARP funds, unlike the rest of the banking industry. Looks like they will be using the money for what it was intended.
 
How good is 621 vs. 700? Is a 621 a very high risk? What are the GM competitors doing? Are they also limited to 700 or can they go lower?
 
Fresh off of receiving a hefty bailout, GMAC says it is opening up its loaning channels to potential buyers with credit bureau scores of 621 or higher. Two months ago, GMAC limited its loans to potential buyers with credit scores of 700 or higher, but the financial institution says it will begin loaning to those who meet the lower criteria effective immediately.
 
“The majority of GMAC’s auto financing has been in the prime arena,” GMAC President Bill Muir said in a statement released earlier today. “Therefore, opening access to credit for those with CB [credit bureau] scores of 621 or better will allow us to return to more normal levels of financing volume, and should help in efforts to stabilize the U.S. auto industry.”

 
OK I found this:
 
Up to 499: 1%
500 - 549: 5%
550 - 599: 7%
600 - 649: 11%
650 - 699: 16%
700 - 749: 20%
750 - 799: 29%
Over 800: 11%
 
So the number of eligible buyers went from 60% to about 80%.
#2986 of 8076
Re: GMAC [62vetteefp] by kernick
Dec 30, 2008 (8:52 am)
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Replying to: 62vetteefp (Dec 30, 2008 6:59 am)

Well there are about 300M people in the U.S. Of that roughly 200M(?) are old enough to buy a vehicle? And we've been buying 16M vehicles per year. So that works out to roughly 8% of the population buy a new vehicle any given year.
 
Seeing that it is the wealthier part of the population that buy new vehicles, and these people are likely to have better credit scores, I don't see where GMAC lowering their acceptable score is going to help drive sales much.
 
In fact there have been plenty of local banks and credit unions where you could get an auto loan, all thru this period, with lower credit scores.
 
I just don't see the lower 40% of the credit-score population, who are struggling from paycheck-to-paycheck, going out shopping for a typical $25K vehicle. And if they do go out and buy something like this then they are a higher risk to default on the loan.
 
I think this society needs to live within its means, rather than giving people loans for houses and vehicles which they can not afford. When enough of these sorts of loans are given out and defaulted on, that's what damages the whole economy.
#2987 of 8076
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [circlew] by cooterbfd
Dec 30, 2008 (9:35 am)
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Replying to: circlew (Dec 29, 2008 12:16 pm)

I notice your Genesis is doing REAL well. Sold a WHOPPING 1,151 cars in Nov., as opposed to the old, dusty, outdated, Lucerne which sold 3,134. Even the CTS outsold it with 2,902 sales. Even the Enclave outsold it with 2,288.
 
I guess everybody knows it's STILL just a Hyundai, even though they hide the emblems real well.
#2988 of 8076
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [cooterbfd] by bpizzuti
Dec 30, 2008 (10:05 am)
Reply

Replying to: cooterbfd (Dec 30, 2008 9:35 am)

I notice your Genesis is doing REAL well. Sold a WHOPPING 1,151 cars in Nov.
 
How many cars showed up on our shores? Are you willing to quote all of these numbers as percentage of inventory sold versus just pure volume?
 
(Incidentally, i have no clue what percentage of available inventory each one sold, but I am curious).

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