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GM News, New Models and Market Share

8270 messages,  Last post on Nov 23, 2009 at 5:01 PM

You are in the Automotive News & Views Forum. Your Hosts are steve_ & claires

What is this discussion about? Automotive News


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#2976 of 8270
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [nippononly] by 62vetteefp
Dec 29, 2008 (1:29 pm)
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Replying to: nippononly (Dec 29, 2008 12:57 pm)

I never said those two would go off. I was referring to the Cobalt and Prius but Corolla/Civic will drop if gas stays at $1.50 and those with little money at teh bottom of the wage scale continue not to buy. What is selling is vehicles to those at the upper end of the middle class and above who are more confident of their jobs. Then again even at that end things can go bad pretty quick.
#2977 of 8270
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [62vetteefp] by circlew
Dec 29, 2008 (2:27 pm)
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Replying to: 62vetteefp (Dec 29, 2008 12:52 pm)

The numbers come from the Wall Street Journal. I do not have answers for the differences. A3 = Asian 3
 
Let's see what happens in December. Goldman Sachs predicts GM is down 42%.
 
Regards,
OW
#2978 of 8270
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [circlew] by steve_ HOST
Dec 29, 2008 (2:36 pm)
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Replying to: circlew (Dec 29, 2008 2:27 pm)

Doesn't look like next year is going to be any better either.
 
Edmunds Forecasts 5 Percent Further Decline in Vehicle Sales in 2009
 
I don't see a breakdown by make.
#2979 of 8270
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [circlew] by 62vetteefp
Dec 29, 2008 (2:57 pm)
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Replying to: circlew (Dec 29, 2008 2:27 pm)

Took a look at WSJ. This is a list of top 20 vehicles for November. So the cars I listed (Cobalt and G6) were not in the top 20 for November but would be for the year.
 
What I do not understand is where I got my data for Cobalt/Civic/Corolla that said 65% drop. I know I posted it here yet the WSJ does not show that. Need to investigate.
 
Found the data. It was a 65% from May to November. May was the height of the gas price mania and November is at the low. And with that data it looks like the Compacts will probably keep their relative positions.
 
The Civic that was hot in May 2008 with 53,299 sales was not in November
   with 17,690 sales,(that is a 70% drop!!) according to the Automotive News Data Center. Ditto the Corolla, 52,826 sold in May 2008 versus 21,807 (60% drop) sold in November; and the Focus, 32,579 sold in May versus 8,194 sold in November.(75% DROP) Cobalt was down 65%.
#2980 of 8270
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [62vetteefp] by 62vetteefp
Dec 29, 2008 (3:18 pm)
Reply

Replying to: 62vetteefp (Dec 29, 2008 2:57 pm)

But if you look at the chart it shows that before the price increase of gas in May trucks outsold cars and then from May til August cars outsold trucks and now trucks are now outselling cars.
 
Also Malibu was the only vehicle in November to actually increase volume from 2007 (35%).
 
Ram truck is 7th on the list. That shows that Chrysler has at least something to bargain with. If Nissan had the money they should pick up the truck part.
#2981 of 8270
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [62vetteefp] by circlew
Dec 29, 2008 (4:21 pm)
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Replying to: 62vetteefp (Dec 29, 2008 2:57 pm)

Interesting and thanks for that insight. Hopefully the economy turns soon but it looks rather bleak for now.
 
I am going to post a yearly sales chart after I format it later on.
 
Regards,
OW
#2982 of 8270
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [steve_] by circlew
Dec 29, 2008 (4:43 pm)
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Replying to: steve_ (Dec 29, 2008 2:36 pm)

Here is the chart for trailing twelve month sales Nov. '07 - '08. If December is as low as the last 2 months (very likely) and the economy worsens, there will be much turmoil in the auto industry in Q1 2009...and everyone will need more bailout cash!
 

 
Regards,
OW
#2983 of 8270
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [steve_] by kernick
Dec 30, 2008 (6:27 am)
Reply

Replying to: steve_ (Dec 29, 2008 2:36 pm)

I think Edmunds is being far too optimistic, as I think the following supplier estimate (12/16/08) of the 2009 market is more valid. It looks like 9.3M is the expected number for North American sales.
 
"In October, Glendale-based Johnson Controls said it assumed there would be production of 12.3 million vehicles in North America and 21.2 million in Europe. The company's latest production estimates for 2009 are 9.3 million units in North America and 16.2 million in Europe."
 
http://www.jsonline.com/business/36225934.html
 
This downturn in the economy is not yet thru, with more dominos to fall. Commercial real estate is going to go bust next, unless they get several hundred billion in bailouts. And banks have not yet started taking losses on people's defaults on credit cards en-masse.
#2984 of 8270
Re: Top 20 Nameplates through 11/08 [kernick] by circlew
Dec 30, 2008 (6:42 am)
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Replying to: kernick (Dec 30, 2008 6:27 am)

I would think between 9 and 10 million units would be what to expect...unless things get worse and more jobs are lost. Don't need a car to go to unemployment...just apply on-line.
 
Regards,
OW
#2985 of 8270
GMAC by 62vetteefp
Dec 30, 2008 (6:59 am)
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It was asked before if GMAC would actually lend the money they have now received from the TARP funds, unlike the rest of the banking industry. Looks like they will be using the money for what it was intended.
 
How good is 621 vs. 700? Is a 621 a very high risk? What are the GM competitors doing? Are they also limited to 700 or can they go lower?
 
Fresh off of receiving a hefty bailout, GMAC says it is opening up its loaning channels to potential buyers with credit bureau scores of 621 or higher. Two months ago, GMAC limited its loans to potential buyers with credit scores of 700 or higher, but the financial institution says it will begin loaning to those who meet the lower criteria effective immediately.
 
“The majority of GMAC’s auto financing has been in the prime arena,” GMAC President Bill Muir said in a statement released earlier today. “Therefore, opening access to credit for those with CB [credit bureau] scores of 621 or better will allow us to return to more normal levels of financing volume, and should help in efforts to stabilize the U.S. auto industry.”

 
OK I found this:
 
Up to 499: 1%
500 - 549: 5%
550 - 599: 7%
600 - 649: 11%
650 - 699: 16%
700 - 749: 20%
750 - 799: 29%
Over 800: 11%
 
So the number of eligible buyers went from 60% to about 80%.

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