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8053 messages, Last post on Nov 08, 2009 at 9:59 PM
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Replying to: 62vetteefp (Nov 30, 2008 5:30 pm)
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Replying to: joshuag (Nov 30, 2008 10:15 pm) That's not a huge number, if you consider that the Explorer alone used to sell 40,000 or more a month. Take that 40,000 and divide it by 19 SUV/CUV models and you get an average of 2,100 units per model. And that's really poor.
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Replying to: torque_r (Nov 30, 2008 11:23 pm) Again there is a large market for Subs/Tahoes, enough to keep at least two plants going once we get past this economy.
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Replying to: 62vetteefp (Nov 30, 2008 5:30 pm) |
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Here's an interesting article that addresses the auto sales "bubble" that existed over the past several years. What's interesting is the US market AVERAGED 16.9 million new car sales from 1999-2006. Prior to this time period, new car sales had reached 16 million only once. Analysts are also saying the US market will probably stay depressed (under 16 million sales) until 2011 or 2012 at the earliest. http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/30/news/companies/auto_bubble/index.htm?cnn=yes
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Replying to: dtownfb (Dec 01, 2008 6:46 am) And these strong years came at a time when the number of licensed drivers was posting a modest 1.1% annual gain, suggesting that the sales increases were way ahead of fundamentals. In other words, people bought new cars or trucks because they could, not because they necessarily needed to. So we have way more cars and trucks than we need right now, when you take a look at the used car lots. It seems lending practices are back where they should be. That will slow down sales to poor risk buyers. You don't have a job, you don't get a loan to buy that Escalade, DUDE.... 
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Again there is a large market for Subs/Tahoes, enough to keep at least two plants going once we get past this economy. . Your post clearly said it, the only question is either "WHEN" or "IF" we get past this economy.
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Replying to: m4d_cow (Dec 01, 2008 7:32 am) But no one really knows what will happen. Bankruptcy would put this back 3 years.
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Replying to: 62vetteefp (Dec 01, 2008 3:53 am) The "I need a suburban to toll my boat/trailer and carry 8 people" community is relatively small (nationwide speaking). The cnn article is dead on, if not for the easy credit for the consumers and the manufacturers, you will not see the explosion in sales of these type of vehicles. When the sales numbers go back to the preboom levels, can it sustain the development and production costs?
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Replying to: 62vetteefp (Dec 01, 2008 7:57 am) You are more optimistic than me. I figure at least 3 years to get back to 15 million, and I think there will STILL be production overcapacity for that volume among the domestics unless the big 'B' happens before then. Obviously, the bailout under consideration, and crucially its conditions, will change that picture if it goes ahead.
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