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#514 of 558 Article From Today's NY Times...
by hpmctorque
Mar 17, 2012 (7:22 pm)
"As Cars Are Kept Longer, 200,000 Is New 100,000"
It sounds about right to me. Do you agree?
#515 of 558 Re: Article From Today's NY Times... [hpmctorque]
by Mr_Shiftright HOST
Mar 18, 2012 (12:23 pm)
Might be a bit of a stretch, since most people still ditch their cars (or have them ditched for them by drunks) after about 10 years---so saying that the average american drives 20,000 miles a year isn't correct.
I'd say 150K is the new 100K, and I'd also offer the opinion that 150K is a very good time to bail out of a car. "nice enough to sell, old enough to be risky".
The problem with modern cars is that after 10 years, they are vastly depreciated, even though they become more expensive to repair as time goes on. This means that their market value is often more or less equal to the cost of a major repair. So if your 150K car is running well, maybe you can get $6000 for it, but as soon as the transmission goes, you lose MORE than the price of a new transmission--essentially your vehicle becomes a parts car in the snap of the fingers.
#516 of 558 Re: Article From Today's NY Times... [Mr_Shiftright]
by steve_ HOST
Mar 18, 2012 (5:30 pm)
Sounds about right to me. I'm in the waning days of a 3 week road trip in my '99 minivan and have 172,000 miles on it. Back in the day, I'd be afraid to drive a ten year old car with 100k on it around the back pasture.
My nephew's Chevy Avalanche is newer than my van, and he's got 270k on it (yeah, I'm jealous). He drives it all over and has towed a lot with it. He's not buying another one until this one dies.
#517 of 558 Re: Article From Today's NY Times... [steve_]
by hpmctorque
Mar 18, 2012 (5:51 pm)
So, since you agree with Shifty, are you going to drive your minivan until it dies, or trade it shortly after you return from your road trip?
#518 of 558 Re: Article From Today's NY Times... [hpmctorque]
by Mr_Shiftright HOST
Mar 18, 2012 (7:27 pm)
makes sense to just drive it and when something big breaks, just walk away..presuming that the car/van is essentially worthless. And at 250K, most vehicles are essentially devoid of any significant market value anymore. So you blow the engine, you're out maybe..what...$1500 bucks? But when you blow the engine on a $10,000 German car, that hurts.
#519 of 558 Re: Article From Today's NY Times... [Mr_Shiftright]
by hpmctorque
Mar 19, 2012 (8:15 am)
"150K is a very good time to bail out of a car."
That's reasonable. However, at 173,000 (by the time he returns to the UP) Host Steve is in that large grey area between 150,000-250,000. At 173,000 the condition of the vehicle, the reputation of the model for reliability (Yugo vs. Camry, to cite extremes), the owner's financial situation and how much the owner likes the vehicle vs. the desire for a different one, are among the factors to consider in deciding whether to spend as much as the value of the vehicle on a single major repair. Other factors include an owner's risk tolerance and patience, ability to perform repairs and how the vehicle will be used in the future. Since some factors are quantifiable, while others are subjective, conclusions about what to do and how much to spend will vary a lot in the 150,000-250,000 mileage range.
Circling back to an earlier question, about whether 150,000 or 200,000 is the new 100,000, I think the risk of a vehicle dying a premature death due to an accident is not relevant, even though accident risk is mileage related.
#520 of 558 Re: Article From Today's NY Times... [hpmctorque]
by Mr_Shiftright HOST
Mar 19, 2012 (8:38 am)
Well accidents are relevant if you're the type of owner that has made all his decisions based on the assumption that the vehicle will last 250K miles--that is, for instance, putting lots of $$$ into the vehicle at 150K because "I intend to keep it another 10 years".
Lots of cars...LOTS of cars, get wiped out every year by accident. Your odds of at least getting smacked are pretty good actually.
Since most people wouldn't be carrying collision insurance on a 10 year old car with 175k on it and worth $2000--$3000 bucks, it's kind of a heart-breaker to have a perfectly good running car suddenly with a bashed in tailgate, smashed in unworkable door, etc.
It changes the entire equation of one's lifetime goal for the vehicle.
#521 of 558 Re: Article From Today's NY Times... [Mr_Shiftright]
by andre1969
Mar 19, 2012 (11:58 am)
Since most people wouldn't be carrying collision insurance on a 10 year old car with 175k on it and worth $2000--$3000 bucks, it's kind of a heart-breaker to have a perfectly good running car suddenly with a bashed in tailgate, smashed in unworkable door, etc.
I'm thankful I still had full coverage on my 2000 Intrepid when it got wrecked. Even though I only got $2,000 for it, the full coverage was only adding about $100 per year to the insurance policy, so I figured it was worth it.
Actually, in my case, my car might have been covered even if I didn't have full coverage. It was a victim of hit and run, which in Maryland is covered under the Uninsured Motorist portion of your insurance coverage. My '69 Dart, which just had liability, was covered by that when I got run off the road and ended up playing pole-vault with a traffic light post.
And, it looks like I'm in line to average totaling roughly one car every 10 years. I've been driving for 25 years now (got my license in December 1986, and Mom's old car in January 1987). Totaled the Dart in 1992. Got T-boned delivering pizzas in my '86 Monte Carlo in 1998. And in 2009, my Intrepid got hit-and-runned. Actually, that's three cars in 25 years...hope that doesn't mean I'm gonna average one every EIGHT years!
#522 of 558 Re: Article From Today's NY Times... [andre1969]
by Mr_Shiftright HOST
Mar 19, 2012 (12:23 pm)
er...maybe not Andre. The way uninsured motorist reads is that you're covered IF you can identify the hit and run driver. But if you can't, tough duck.
#523 of 558 Re: Article From Today's NY Times... [Mr_Shiftright]
by andre1969
Mar 19, 2012 (12:39 pm)
er...maybe not Andre. The way uninsured motorist reads is that you're covered IF you can identify the hit and run driver. But if you can't, tough duck.
I wonder if it's changed over the years? Back in 1992, I wasn't able to identify the truck that ran me off the road, beyond it being a dark blue 1987-91 Ford F-series. I couldn't get a license number, as it all happened too quickly. The policeman wrote up the accident as hit and run, and the insurance company paid me.
Unfortunately, I also had the state of Maryland trying to come after me for about 4 years, in an attempt to pay for that traffic light. Even though the accident wasn't my fault, was classified as hit and run, they didn't want to hear it. Eventually they dropped it though, once they finally saw the police report.
I guess it's possible that I just lucked out in that case, though?
I think the full coverage portion of my insurance is actually a little cheaper on my Park Ave, so I'm probably going to keep it, for the forseeable future, at least.