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Classic Cars, Coupe, Convertible, Truck, Sedan, Wagon
#473 of 527 Re: When did things get too electronic? [astphard]
by MrShift@Edmunds HOST
Jan 29, 2011 (5:36 pm)
it all depends on whether or not some enterprising capitalist will see an aftermarket opportunity that is viable.
If you're asking do I think people will be saving most cars made today, I would say definitely NOT. They are too similar, generic and mass produced.
#474 of 527 Re: When did things get too electronic? [Mr_Shiftright]
Jan 29, 2011 (5:56 pm)
Hard to generalize. None of us who owned musclecars in the mid sixties ever thought they would be worth anything today. As a matter of fact, when gas prices jumped in the 70's, no one wanted them. And look at what they sell for today.
Now, I doubt a current Toyota Camry will ever be collectible, but some of the rare high end performance cars certainly could be.
#475 of 527 Re: When did things get too electronic? [jwilliams2]
Jan 29, 2011 (9:28 pm)
"...some of the rare high end performance cars certainly could be."
Only time will tell, of course, but I tend to agree with Shifty on this.
Most if not all of us seem to agree that no recent or current Camry or Accord will ever have the collector status of, say, a '55-'57 Chevy, or anywhere close to it. Which rare high end performance cars are you thinking of? they're the most complex cars on the market, and their components are produced in small quantities, so where will you get replacements for even a sky high price in 2036 and beyond? As for certain luxury car models - Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, etc. - well maybe, maybe, but I don't know which models would achieve affordable collector status. Help, anyone?
Can anyone think of a modern day counterpart to a mid-late '60s Mustang, in terms of future collectable desirability? I sure can't.
#476 of 527 Re: When did things get too electronic? [hpmctorque]
Jan 30, 2011 (8:16 am)
Most if not all of us seem to agree that no recent or current Camry or Accord will ever have the collector status of, say, a '55-'57 Chevy, or anywhere close to it.
I know they'll never have the appeal of the hot '55-57 styles, like the hardtops, convertibles, top V-8's, Nomad, etc. But I wonder if something like an Accord or Camry would even reach the status of something like a low-demand model? Say, a 4-door 150 stripper with the straight-6?
I have a feeling that they probably won't even achieve that. Those low-line Chevies still probably benefit a bit because there are people who want a '55-57 Chevy, but can't afford a glamorous hardtop, convertible, fuelie, or whatever. But they want one so bad they'd settle for a basic 4-door.
I just can't see people clamoring for current-gen Accords in 30, 40, or 50 years. Every once in a blue moon, I've seen a 1980 or so Accord show up at the big Das Awk Fescht car show in Macungie PA, but they're hardly a common occurrence.
#477 of 527 Re: When did things get too electronic? [hpmctorque]
Jan 30, 2011 (9:26 am)
There isn't really a complete counterpart for an old Mustang or a Tri-Chevy, especially in the Euro or luxury lineup. The closest to an old Mustang is a new Mustang - and just like the old one, there are so many of them made that values will always be reasonable.
I don't see many modern Euros becoming big collectibles - maybe special interest cars at best. AMG/M/S-RS etc cars will be curiosities, but not particularly valuable, if they survive at all. Then they'd just be affordable to purchase, but like a 25 year old MB now, maybe not affordable to maintain unless you are really devoted. Perhaps something like an AMG Black Series will be coveted.
#478 of 527 Re: When did things get too electronic? [jwilliams2]
by MrShift@Edmunds HOST
Jan 30, 2011 (10:12 am)
yes sure, hard to generalize, and no doubt some car or another will defy the odds---but in general, we CAN learn from past history of collectible cars.
Here's what I've learned, or think I've learned:
1. If a car is loved passionately when new by real car enthusiasts (not the "I think my XX is cute" or "this is the best little car I ever owned"---not *that* kind of love)....than this type of car has a chance of being loved and preserved in later time. I think the owner of a '70 Hemi Cuda most definitely knew he had something special. The fact that *so many* of these rare cars still exist suggest that this is true.
2. Cars with huge amounts of usable, demonstrable horsepower will generally survive, although not perhaps with great value. By *huge* I mean awesome, not 278HP in a minivan or even 325HP in a big sedan. I mean tire-burning, street-ripping HP in a car that can use it.
3. Most ultra-expensive exotics will survive---but again, maybe not at anything near their original MSRP.
4. Cars with legendary names or history tend to survive more. Again, I don't mean "endurance history" as in "the longest running 4D sedan in production", or "this car is celebrating its 100th anniversay"---what did that do for Oldsmobile after all? So *most* Ferraris, Porsches, etc---but not all. A Cayenne? I don't think so. A dime-a-dozen base level Boxster? I don't think so.
5. Cars of superior and highly specialized utility may survive, oddly enough, like some race cars, some 4X4 Jeeps, some 4X4 dually 3/4 ton pickups. Why? Because they can still do the work they were built for--they can "pay for themselves" in other words, by either racing, hauling or hunting,etc.
I realize these "rules" aren't hard and fast, and can get mushy, but this is my interpretation of the future. Like most Swamis, I could be wrong
Where does this leave 97% of all modern cars? In the junkyard, that's where.
#479 of 527 Re: When did things get too electronic? [fintail]
Jan 30, 2011 (10:24 am)
"...unless you are really devoted."
Ah, you nailed it; "devoted" is the key word. As I see it, there just don't seem to be as many people devoted, to the extent that those of us who regularly post on Edmunds are, to classic and collector cars as there once were. Sure, a lot of people are interested in cars today, but not devoted to the hobby.
#480 of 527 Re: When did things get too electronic? [Mr_Shiftright]
Jan 30, 2011 (3:58 pm)
Good post. I've got a 2002 v6 Toyota Tacoma 4-door, 4X4 that is pretty much cherry that I plan to hang onto.
With collectible cars it is always a crapshoot. In a few years we all may be driving street modified golf carts !!
#481 of 527 Re: When did things get too electronic? [hpmctorque]
Jan 30, 2011 (6:05 pm)
You have to be devoted to keep a lot of old Euros on the road, so it comes with the territory in a way - probably why a 30 year old MB or BMW etc isn't rare - enough people take care of them to keep some around.
I don't know if there were ever a lot of people really into the hobby...it'll just be tougher for modern cars as their electronics decay, and the socio-economic devolution makes so less people can play with such toys.
#482 of 527 Re: When did things get too electronic? [Mr_Shiftright]
Jan 30, 2011 (7:36 pm)
Your lesson #1 really does work for musclecars in general and maybe even BJ auctions too. This has come up before and I suppose it may always evoke anecdotal stories. My own experience was that real musclecars were always prized--right through the gas crunch malaise and all. But for every example I can recall about high-priced well-kept musclecars in the 70s it usually draws an opposite recollection from another. But there are other supporting resources...
A quick google of the Chicago Trib classified gave this result for May 20, 1979: "1970 HEMI CUDA $8500. 1970 HEMI ROADRUNNER $5500. Both mint Southern Cars." Someone with a collection of late 70s Hot Rod may find similar asking prices in the classified section.
In todays money $5k to $8k is nothing for a Hemi musclecar, but in 1979 that was not just "old 1970 used car" money either! How much did a new 1979 Olds Cutlass sell for back then? About the same? I never understood why some people claim that the gas crunch 70s was some sort of dumping ground for musclecars. Personal experiences and anecdotes aside, there are enough surviving newspaper and magazine ads to refute the "dumping ground" theory.
What makes rule #1 ring so true is car fanatics knew that a 1970 Hemi Cuda was something special and that allure has never changed. Sure nobody predicted that musclecars would ever approach blue chip auction status such as classic $200k Duesenbergs in 1979, but real car guys loved them anyway.
Wasn't the musclecar era the very last gasp at the same kind of reckless freedom which also created Duesenbergs? Life was never the same after the early 70s, not the the cars, the people, or the future. What's the next big thing in store for BJ auctions after musclecars? The end of that wild and crazy auction era, I think!