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194 messages,  Last post on Nov 20, 2009 at 7:24 PM

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#185 of 194
Colts win over Patriots... 4th and 2! by jipster
Nov 20, 2009 (6:49 am)
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At the time I thought it was a bad decision for Bill Belicheat to go for a first down from their own 28 yard line with 2 minutes left in the game. I correctly called the sideline slant that was broken up on 3rd down. Playing the percentages it was probably the correct call. The Pats have a 66% success rate on 3rd and 4th and two. The Colts would have to go 60 or 70 yards to score in 2 minutes, not that difficult a feat for the Colts,or 28 yards with a short field. I liked the fact the Patriots went for it, I liked it even more when he didn't make it.
 
Just when I think the Cowboys have turned the corner in becoming a real Super Bowl front runner, they turn in a very immature and uninspired effort against the Packers. Hopefully they have learned their lesson and won't take any remaining opponents so lightly. Romo has been playing better though. Go Cowboys!
 
Also, Go Bengals!
#186 of 194
Re: Colts win over Patriots... 4th and 2! [jipster] by steve_ HOST
Nov 20, 2009 (7:47 am)
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Replying to: jipster (Nov 20, 2009 6:49 am)

I'm a Peyton fan, and I thought it was the best call by Belichick under the circumstances. If Eli had been across the line of scrimmage, then maybe a punt would have been better but if there had been no ball bobble on the 4th down catch, then the game is essentially over.
 
Belichick didn't manage the timeouts so well, so there was no chance to dispute the spot on the juggled pass. Peyton on the other hand managed to score slowly on their last series so that time was about out when the Colts made the go-ahead score.
#187 of 194
Re: Colts win over Patriots... 4th and 2! [steve_] by jipster
Nov 20, 2009 (10:37 am)
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Replying to: steve_ (Nov 20, 2009 7:47 am)

Gutsy call... no doubt. Most other coaches would have ran the ball 3 times then punted. As a head coach you can't be worried about the ramifications (i.e media) of calling a play that doesn't work, especially one that goes outside the norm of what is considered "smart" football. If that play suceeds, everyone is calling "Belichick" the greatest coach that ever lived.
 
I can't remember the name of the reciever on that forth down play, but he reached up, the football hit his hands,dropped down, then he caught it near his chest. There really wasn't a bobble. Looking at the replays it looked like the Patriots got a bad spot, looked to be either good or short by a few inches (not a yard short). But, like you said, burn your timeouts you risk not having any for what could have been a game changing challenge.
#188 of 194
Re: Colts win over Patriots... 4th and 2! [jipster] by steve_ HOST
Nov 20, 2009 (11:22 am)
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Replying to: jipster (Nov 20, 2009 10:37 am)

Yeah, I haven't seen much in the way of replays - just a few YouTube ones. The ref near the scene was moving his hands in the "juggle" signal, but yeah, the spot was probably closer to inches being too short or just enough.
 
I like the Arkansas high school coach who looked at all the odds, and now his team never* punts. And they keep winning.
 
*"Coach Kevin Kelley and his Bruins won the state championship in Arkansas' third-largest classification last season and did not punt. This year, they are 7-2 with one punt - the other team was so surprised the ball went 51 yards with no return."
 
Leader Telegram
#189 of 194
Not claiming I'm right... by kyfdx HOST
Nov 20, 2009 (3:54 pm)
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...but, when they went to the line, I said to myself, "Must be trying to draw them offsides"..
 
When they snapped it, I said out loud (also to myself), "What an idiot!". And, that was before I saw the result.. I really expected them to make it, but I still thought it was the wrong call.
 
They held Indy to 17 points over the first three quarters... Punt the ball, and make them go 70 yards.... They need a touchdown, not a field goal.. Peyton Manning may be the best quarterback of all time, but even he doesn't score a TD on 2/3 of his possessions (if we are playing the odds..)
 
Bill Belichick may be a football genius (and, a snappy dresser!), but that was just a boneheaded call..
 
That Arkansas high school team is a great story... and, it should serve as a lesson to coaches to not be so conservative.... But, that coach does some pretty dumb stuff, as well.. (Runs out of bounds after fielding the kickoff?). Even that guy should keep an open mind..
 
Who Dey!
#190 of 194
Re: Not claiming I'm right... [kyfdx] by steve_ HOST
Nov 20, 2009 (4:27 pm)
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Replying to: kyfdx (Nov 20, 2009 3:54 pm)

Some interesting comments over at Advanced NFL Stats (this is really more of Tidester's bailiwick):
 
"according to the NFLN the Patriots have converted 78% of all 4th downs in recent years"
 
"Since 2000, including postseason, Bill Belichick had gone for it 16 times on fourth down against the Colts -- and converted 12 (75 percent)."
 
"Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position."
 
Another angle - take a safety to kill a little time and then try to pin the Colts at their end of the field. Or let Addai score on his 13 yard run, leaving Brady 1:20 to go for the win.
#191 of 194
Re: Not claiming I'm right... [steve_] by kyfdx HOST
Nov 20, 2009 (4:41 pm)
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Replying to: steve_ (Nov 20, 2009 4:27 pm)

I will say this about that..
 
Addai getting tackled on the 1, resulted in me winning this week in Fantasy Football... If he goes in for the TD, I lose...
 
But, getting back to the real game.... If it was such a good idea, and they have that much faith in Brady... then Brady should have just handed the ball to Dwight Freeney, and let him run it in for a touchdown... Then, when Indy kicked the ball back to them (say.. on their 30?), the Patriots would have only needed a field goal to win, and had a whole two minutes to get it.
 
No, wait.. that would be dumb, right?
#192 of 194
Oh yeah....one more time.. by kyfdx HOST
Nov 20, 2009 (4:43 pm)
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WHO DEY!!
 
Dang, that feels good!
#193 of 194
Re: Not claiming I'm right... [kyfdx] by steve_ HOST
Nov 20, 2009 (5:20 pm)
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Replying to: kyfdx (Nov 20, 2009 4:41 pm)

No, wait.. that would be dumb, right?
 
Unless the Pats win, then it'd be a brilliant gutsy call that has the added bonus for Pats fan of thumbing their noses at the Colts (and Vegas, for messing with the spread).
#194 of 194
Re: Not claiming I'm right... [kyfdx] by jipster
Nov 20, 2009 (7:24 pm)
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Replying to: kyfdx (Nov 20, 2009 3:54 pm)

Bill Belichick may be a football genius (and, a snappy dresser!),
 
LOL... no kidding. As he was walking off the field after the game I commented that his shirt looked like something most people would do their gardening in. Not a professional look at all... should be fined about 10 grand by the NFL and be required to take some type of class in how to dress and accessorise.

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