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Domestics, Germans Fare Poorly In Latest CU Survey - READ ONLY

207 messages,  Last post on Sep 02, 2007 at 9:41 AM

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#1 of 207 Domestics, Germans Fair Poorly In Latest CU Survey by Mr_Shiftright HOST

Aug 08, 2007 (10:37 am)

Once again, using their most extensive survey methods to date, Consumer Reports have given most domestic makes and most German cars rather dismal reliability ratings.
 
The new report covers a number of areas (see April 2007 issue).
 
1. How Well Do Various Cars Age?
 
One survey claims to predict the RATE of INCREASE in problems as a car ages up to ten years (10). In that survey, VW cars fared the worst as they aged (175 problems per 100 vehicles), with GM and Chrysler close behind (160/100), then Hyundai, Ford and the least problems as cars aged going to Nissan, Honda and finally Toyota as the "best of the old cars".(60/100)
 
2. Predicted Reliability of 2003-2006 Makes and Models
 
Another survey covers reliability of makes and models using this criteria:
 
"based on the three most recent model years' data for models whose design hasn't changed since 2007"
 
TOP SIX:
 
Toyota/Honda/Scion/Acura/Lexus/Subaru
 
WORST SIX:
 
Cadillac/Jeep/Jaguar/Hummer/Land Rover/ Mercedes Benz (Mercedes was the worst of the worst, with a predicted 35-200% below average reliability rate).
 
No American or German make scored above average IN TOTAL, with all their models averaged in, but a few American and German MODELS were individually above average.
 
3. Most and Least Reliable 2007 model cars
 
(a few examples posted here. There are actually TEN categories)
 
BEST SMALL CAR: Fit/Yaris/Corolla
 
WORST SMALL CAR: Cobalt/Jetta/Aveo
 
BEST LUXURY CAR: Infiniti M/Lexus LS
 
WORST LUXURY CAR: Cadillac STS/MB-CLS/MB E-class/ BMW 7 series/ Jaguar S type
 
Where did domestics do well for 2007 models?
 
The domestics scored well in only three of ten categories:
 
BEST LARGE CARS: Lincoln Zephyr (in same group as Lexus 350, Acura TSX
 
BEST FAMILY CARS Ford Fusion (in same group as Prius, Accord, etc.)
 
BEST LARGE SUVs: Chevy Tahoe/Yukon (in same group as Land Cruiser, Sequoia, etc
 
SUMMARY?
 
Looks like Japan ran away with it all across the board.
 
 Most domestics fell in the middle to low-middle, and with the exception of Mercury, all domestics were in a negative mean percentile (that is, below average mean reliability).
 
German cars also fell into negative mean percentiles, with VW, Mini, Porsche and Mercedes in the bottom ten.
 
Worst domestic overall for 2003-2006?
 
Hummer
 
Second worst: Jeep
 
Third Worst: Cadillac
 
THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE NUMBERS:
 
Vehicle reports included: 1,302,575 samples (i.e., 1.3 million vehicles)
 
Models surveyed across ten years: 2,200
 
Most responses from any one model: 7,763 from Toyota Camry
 
Minimum responses required to include a model in the reliability survey: 100
 
-------------------------------------------------
 
Anything you are surprised to see, or does this survey more or less match your expectations?
 
MrShiftright
Visiting Host

#2 of 207 Re: Domestics, Germans Fair Poorly In Latest CU Survey [Mr_Shiftright] by british_rover

Aug 09, 2007 (6:49 am)

Replying to: Mr_Shiftright (Aug 08, 2007 10:37 am)
Minimum responses required to include a model in the reliability survey: 100
 
Whoa that stands out?
 
Has CR always had 100 responses as the minimum? From what I remember of my stats classes in college you need a minimum of 300-500 responses on a truly random survey in order to get accurate results. I just don't think 100 responses is enough to get a truly accurate survey result and I doubt CRs survey methods are random enough that the bare minimum of 300-500 responses works. They probably need more then 500 responses for a truly accurate survey result.

#3 of 207 NOTE by 1stpik

Aug 09, 2007 (6:54 am)

Edit the title to read "... Fare Poorly ..."
 
fare - noun, verb
 
7. to experience good or bad fortune, treatment, etc.: He fared well in his profession.

#4 of 207 Re: Domestics, Germans Fair Poorly In Latest CU Survey [Mr_Shiftright] by gagrice

Aug 09, 2007 (6:57 am)

Replying to: Mr_Shiftright (Aug 08, 2007 10:37 am)
No surprise to me. Just what I would expect from CR
 
Too bad CR does not have a result that shows how the Japanese cars have taken the joy out of driving. Last Japanese car I drove that was fun. The Honda CRX

#5 of 207 Re: Domestics, Germans Fair Poorly In Latest CU Survey [gagrice] by Mr_Shiftright HOST

Aug 09, 2007 (8:11 am)

Replying to: gagrice (Aug 09, 2007 6:57 am)
Are you suggesting CR manipulated the data for some agenda?
 
You are right about one thing you said though---there is no room in CR for a "fun factor".
 
But--they did title it a "reliability" survey, so I guess the best criticism would be on the limited nature of the survey.
 
People buy cars IN SPITE OF the reliability ratings all the time.
 
The survey does seem to imply that American manufacturers are still behind the curve, and that the Germans haven't solved their quality control issues.
 
My impressions were...yeah, it's about what I expected from the Japanese and Americans (the "best" and "mediocre" respectively) but I really didn't expect to see Mercedes in the toilet.
 
Kinda sad how the domestics couldn't even score in the Pickups category. You'd think......
 
Visiting Host

#6 of 207 Re: Domestics, Germans Fair Poorly In Latest CU Survey [Mr_Shiftright] by gagrice

Aug 09, 2007 (9:21 am)

Replying to: Mr_Shiftright (Aug 09, 2007 8:11 am)
How many MB owners do you think would bother with CR? I am surprised that they got 100 of any model MB except the cheapo models that compete with the cheapo Lexus.
 
It also surprises me they got so few Camry surveys. 7000 over 4 years, with close to 2 million sold. Maybe CR is losing subscribers and or no one bothers with the survey.

#7 of 207 Re: Domestics, Germans Fair Poorly In Latest CU Survey [gagrice] by Mr_Shiftright HOST

Aug 09, 2007 (12:19 pm)

Replying to: gagrice (Aug 09, 2007 9:21 am)
I think 7000 surveys is a pretty good statistical base for trends on a particular model. Not sure 100 minimum surveys for a particular model is valid though.
 
It does seem though that CR results roughly mirror what you see here in the Edmunds forums.
 
The part I found intersting was the rate of decline as each car aged. This would be more useful to used car buyers rather than new car buyers I'd guess.

#8 of 207 Re: Domestics, Germans Fair Poorly In Latest CU Survey [gagrice] by ateixeira

Aug 09, 2007 (12:24 pm)

Replying to: gagrice (Aug 09, 2007 6:57 am)
CRX was fun, certainly, but you must not have driven an S2000 if you can't think of a single fun Japanese car.
 
How 'bout a Miata? G35? 300ZX?
 
You gotta get out more and drive more Asian cars if you're gonna talk about 'em like that.

#9 of 207 Re: Domestics, Germans Fair Poorly In Latest CU Survey [Mr_Shiftright] by jeffmc

Aug 09, 2007 (1:25 pm)

Replying to: Mr_Shiftright (Aug 08, 2007 10:37 am)
Pretty much results as expected. Nice to see a couple of the newer American products took best in their category.
 
One little beef I have with CR's wording:
"2. Predicted Reliability of 2003-2006 Makes and Models...
...TOP SIX: Toyota/Honda/Scion/Acura/Lexus/Subaru"
 
Maybe it's just me, but I've always thought of a "make" as the manufacturer, not the brand. Scion, Acura & Lexus are brands. With CR's terminology, things get muddy. If you're in Canada, for example, buying an Acura that's really a re-badged US Honda, is your new vehicle rated #4 in reliability, or is it rated #2? CR's Top 6 really reads as a top 3 to me: Toyota, Honda, Subaru. Who cares which badge the manufacturer slaps on?
 
Even defining it by manufacturer is getting harder now, for example having Camry built at the Subaru plant in Indiana... is it really #1 in reliability or #3 (or #6?) because it's not built in a Toyota factory?)

#10 of 207 Re: Domestics, Germans Fair Poorly In Latest CU Survey [jeffmc] by ateixeira

Aug 09, 2007 (1:53 pm)

Replying to: jeffmc (Aug 09, 2007 1:25 pm)
Valid points, I think it's fair to say Toyota, Honda, and Subaru are the top 3.
 
The rest are just divisions.
 
Scion isn't really even a stand-alone division, they are models within the Toyota franchise. Notice how the stores are contained within Toyota dealerships.

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