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Vans & Minivans 2008 Minivans 
1261 messages, Last post on Feb 27, 2008 at 7:47 AM
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Replying to: mfletou1 (Nov 29, 2007 7:49 pm) |
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Replying to: mfletou1 (Nov 29, 2007 7:49 pm) I'm not sure exactly what package he got, but he paid $29k for an LE in Colorado. Today that money buys you an XLE with a few options. He complained when his dealer low-balled him on a wholesale trade-in value, yet he could try to sell it on his own and get more money for it. Of course a dealer will low-ball you, they have to make a profit on used cars! So really, his was a case of bad timing. He bought it when prices were high, and compares that to resale when rebates exist on the new ones, and of course he's looking only at the low-ball wholesale offer. This is not representative at all, however. When I shopped, a new Sienna LE pkg 2 was $24.7k and a 2 year old used one with 30k miles was $21k. Same dealer, apples to apples, retail price comparison. As is obvious, residual values are very strong when you compare today's new prices with today's used prices. Automotive Lease Guide gives the Sienna 4 stars for residual values: https://www.alg.com/deprratings.aspx Sienna and Ody tie for the best among minivans. Note that the Dodge scored poorly BUT that score is likely to improve with the new models. If we look at the Ody, back in May, a new 2007 Ody EX was $26.8k. Today the same van sells for $23k new. If you bought the van in May, your residuals just got slammed, too. A 6 month old EX has to cost less than new one does now, so you can expect your residual to drop. Why? Bad timing. Plain and simple. If you get a bargain on a 2007 now, your actual residual will be very strong. Much better than it would have been if you had bought the same van back in May. Timing is everything. Now, let's say you're shopping for a new T&C. Right when the new ones come out. You want to be the first on the block, so you pay MSRP for the very first one. Then compare that to the patient person who waits for the incentives to show up, and that person gets the same van for, say, $3000 less. Again, it's all about the timing. If you're shopping for a van, follow the pricing market, track the trends. Back in May, I got a $1250 rebate on the Sienna. That was the best bargain at the time. Ody had no incentives. I timed it right and got the Sienna. Right now, IMO the Ody is the best bargain. Dealers have a $2000 incentive. You can get a better deal on an 07 Ody, because the 07 Siennas are mostly gone. So if you are timing the market, get a bargain on the Ody today. I would not buy an 08 Sienna right now because the rebates are small and will likely grow. Bad timing. For the Dodge and Chrysler, again, it's a new model and rebates right now are small. I bet that a year from now, people will be paying less than you would pay today.
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To show you guys what I'm talking about, here is my price tracking for the 2007 Sienna, which I did for about 5 months. These were the no-haggle prices on the very same model 2007 Sienna LE package 3: January, right at the launch: $26,698 (no rebate, BAD timing, be patient!) Feb. 12, $500 rebate appears, prices drops to $26,337. Feb. 23, price drops again, to $26,137 March 6, price increases to $26,689 (I'm depressed, thinking I missed my chance) April 5, $25,439, must be a bigger rebate, yes! (I decide to check more often) April 20, same price April 30, same price May 2, no change May 10, no change May 14, no change I bought my van on May 22 for $25,247. Note my price tracking strategy ended up saving me almost $1500 with simple patience and good timing. If you did the same price tracking with the 2007 Odyssey, you would have seen that prices didn't drop until later, because Honda introduced the 2008s later in the year. That means the timing is NOW if you are shopping for a 2007. I'll say it again, timing is everything.
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Replying to: ateixeira (Nov 30, 2007 9:10 am) Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda.......... Now is not the time to buy a Chrysler, first model year of a new design, no incentives etc... I have the itch bad, but i'm holding off for 6 months to a year. Toyota is due for redesign for 2010 (i was working on module for it recently), Honda? |
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Replying to: dennisctc (Nov 30, 2007 9:19 am) The 2008 Odyssey is a refresh, new VCM for the engine, minor face-lift. That's probably why the 2007s are a bargain. However...the changes are really pretty minor. Good timing, IMHO. The incentives on the Sienna are only about half what they were in May. I predict they will increase, so my advice for Toyota shoppers is to wait. The redesign should come out for 2009, so towards the end of the 2008 run they will be bargains again. For Dodge, if it were me, I would wait. I agree with you. Side note: before I was ready to buy, I found a leftover 2006 Dodge Grand Caravan SXT for a whopping $20,600 price. This is without any special employee discount, just a left over they were anxious to unload. I was very, very tempted. I didn't like it as much, and that particular one didn't have side curtain air bags, but still, that's a bargain! I'll admit, it was tempting. By the time I was ready to buy, the same van was about $22k and change. Still no SAC for that price. Plus, the deal just wasn't as sweet.
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Replying to: dennisctc (Nov 30, 2007 9:19 am) But there are incentives!! $1500 rebate is not anything to sneeze at. Also the incentives will probably not get as great as they do at the end of a model's run. They probably will get greater, but not $5000 like the 07 did because that model was getting discontinued. I didn't want to wait as the 08 T&C looks like a lot of fun. Plus EC numbers are easier to come by at the end of the year as the employees can give 2 out a year and if they haven't used them yet, they will get wasted. They will get 2 more again in Jan. So it depends upon your situation.
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Replying to: ateixeira (Nov 30, 2007 9:00 am) You are totally spot on and I think a lot of people miss the point you are making. And not only was poor han's timing off in terms of pricing, he also got a somewhat inferior vehicle because of the powertrain switch, which prompted CR to move the Sienna 2 points ahead of the Ody (93-91--both exceptional scores). Han should try CarMaxing his van--he'll get a better price. I made the same calculation, which is why I went with the ody. Vehicle MSRP is around $32, give or take a few hundred depending on dealer added accessories. Reading the prices paid forums on this board prompted me to start investigating minivans when we decided that's what we wanted--I was initially surprised that the Ody was being moved with such big discounts. Like many other dumb consumers, I assumed that Honda products wouldn't see those kinds of discounts. When I started shopping in early October, my first round of quotes on the Ody were around $26.5. Just a month later, I ended up paying $25.2, which I determined was pretty much the floor in Ody prices (time will tell if I was right, but you also have to factor in diminished inventory--in my case, there were only 4 vehicles left in my color preference in my DC tristate area). And to further back up your case, there's an Ody identical to mine at CarMax only used with 11k miles, and they're selling it for $29k. (yeah, I know, CarMax, but since I sell my cars to CarMax, I see that markup on my end too). In that time, we took a hard look at the Ody AND the Sienna. I knew that the Sienna wasn't as good a deal, but I also knew that at some point in the future, it would become a better deal. So I figured that if we liked the Sienna substantially more, we would go ahead and pass on the great-deal Ody, and wait for Sienna prices to fall. I didn't want to end up with a vehicle I didn't entirely want, even if it was a better deal (like you and the DGC). As it turned out, even if all money was equal, we actually preferred the Ody EX-L to the Sienna XLE. The price difference, of course, was huge--about the same as the price difference between an 07 Ody and an 08 ($4k or so). If I wanted a Toyota, I would certainly wait. If I wanted a DGC or CTC, I'd wait for two reasons--#1, a product that new that has a $1500 rebate is a sign that demand is not as high as the manufacterer would like, and it is very likely that the rebate will increase, and #2, first year of a new model, I'd wait to see what the problem areas are if possible (sometimes its not, I need a hybrid pronto last year for HOV lane reasons and bought a Camry Hybrid in the first year--just took a chance). Anyway, great post, I hope others take your advice. |
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