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Are gas prices fueling your pain? - READ ONLY

10042 messages,  Last post on Jul 12, 2008 at 3:07 PM

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What is this discussion about? Fuel Efficiency (MPG)


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#8670 of 10042
Re: oh goody! [imidazol97] by nippononly
Jun 11, 2008 (7:44 pm)

Replying to: imidazol97 (Jun 11, 2008 6:42 pm)

Cool chart! It shows the $0.14 here in San Francisco since a week ago. I guess my local rise being $0.18 is within the norm of that chart.
 
It also shows that while we here in SF don't see jumps or spikes in our gas price, it is also true that our price slowly but surely rises all the time, without any of the jumps down that Dayton (and crude) experience.
 
I guess I should be glad (and I do remember taking note) that for a lot of May we weren't paying much above the national average. Now we are back to our norm of $0.50 above the national average. But I know the folks in Chicago and a few other big cities are feeling our pain too.
#8673 of 10042
Re: Oil Could Hit $400 a Barrel by 2018 [avalon02wh] by bpizzuti
Jun 12, 2008 (2:34 am)

Replying to: avalon02wh (Jun 11, 2008 6:37 pm)

Remember, most of those organizations who are predicting oil futures HOLD oil futures. That means they A: want it to go up, and B: have the capability of making it go up by using their own buys and sells to tweak the market.
 
So they're not delusional. Not only are they saying it will, but they're informing you where their next major value increase is going to come from: your wallet.
#8674 of 10042
Re: Based on today's info [larsb] by avalon02wh
Jun 12, 2008 (2:43 am)

Replying to: larsb (Jun 11, 2008 12:21 pm)

"No one can see into the future - but with the best info, it is possible to make an "educated guess" based on hundreds and maybe thousands of data points. "
 
The problem, as you mention, is getting the best data points. Predicting oil prices means predicting what people will do. That is still a very difficult proposition. You have scientists, economists and engineers trying to understand the oil market that is actually made up of a lot of irrational people.
 
How can you predict when OPEC will raise or lower production?
Can you predict when the CEO of an oil company will decide to drill in a certain area?
Does our thousands of data points help us decide when or if countries will drop a fuel subsidy?
Do we know what the breaking point is for the average American diver? $4 $5 $19.37?
How will the politicians react or what legislation will they pass?
 
Back in 04, 05 & 06 the EIA predicted that Mexican oil production would rise despite the fact that it had leveled off in 04 and 05. Mexican investment in exploration and production was inadequate. The EIA knew that yet they kept up with their rosy forecast.
 
The EIA and the IEA are worthless pieces of when it comes to predicting. Sure they collect millions of pieces of data, but they cannot see the forest for the trees.
#8675 of 10042
Re: Oil Could Hit $400 a Barrel by 2018 [bpizzuti] by avalon02wh
Jun 12, 2008 (3:08 am)

Replying to: bpizzuti (Jun 12, 2008 2:34 am)

"So they're not delusional."
 
I was actually referring to the retired Admiral, not every future trader.
 
" Not only are they saying it will, but they're informing you where their next major value increase is going to come from: your wallet"
 
No, they might be able to temporarily tweak the market, but as prices rise people stop buying. For example:
at $100 a barrel 10 % of the people world wide stop buying oil
at $200 a barrel 20 % of the people world wide stop buying oil
at $300 a barrel 30 % of the people world wide stop buying oil
at $400 a barrel 40 % of the people world wide stop buying oil
 
Demand would plummet as the price rises. People would find substitutes, drive less or whatever. You really should do some searching for energy/oil/gasoline/diesel news stories on Google news or theoildrum to see how people are already reacting to high energy prices. It is not going to take $400 a barrel or $10 a gallon for RUG to have the you-know-what hit the fan.
 
RUG is at $4.06, another record.
Diesel is at $4.79 also a record.
 
And how about Hawaii, their diesel has hit $5.18. Me thinks I need to search Google News later today to see how the Hawaiian folks are reacting to all this good news. Good thing they do not need heating oil to heat their homes. I predict they will be using Lava powered cars and trucks in the not to distant future.
#8676 of 10042
Re: Oil Could Hit $400 a Barrel by 2018 [avalon02wh] by snakeweasel
Jun 12, 2008 (3:47 am)

Replying to: avalon02wh (Jun 12, 2008 3:08 am)

And how about Hawaii, ....... I predict they will be using Lava powered cars and trucks in the not to distant future.
 
Oh Hawaii isn't that big, plus its broken down into many smaller pieces (islands) so they can ride bikes everywhere. Heck I have driven the road to Hana a bike might just be faster.
#8677 of 10042
Re: Oil Could Hit $400 a Barrel by 2018 [avalon02wh] by lemko
Jun 12, 2008 (4:16 am)

Replying to: avalon02wh (Jun 12, 2008 3:08 am)

Just think. Ninety thousand independent truckers in Spain have stopped their vehicles at $7-$8 a gallon and gone on strike. American truckers probably have a lower threshold.
#8678 of 10042
Re: Oil Could Hit $400 a Barrel by 2018 [avalon02wh] by bpizzuti
Jun 12, 2008 (4:27 am)

Replying to: avalon02wh (Jun 12, 2008 3:08 am)

How much do you want to bet that AEA holds oil futures as part of their investments? That's the company that that admiral is CEO of now. He would therefore consider $400 a barrel in 2018 a good thing because he'll get it 5 years from now. Oil futures are having less and less to do with the realities of supply and demand, and MUCH less to do with the real oil and gasoline market. Everyone could stop using gas and, the way things are, people would still be trading these futures for inflated prices...probably because they know no one would pay that much for actual delivery (which is what futures were originally for...to lock in a later delivery price).
 
Oh and $5.18 for diesel doesn't impress me. Up here in my area I saw diesel for $5.34 yesterday.
#8679 of 10042
Re: Mileage Vs Speed [tankbeans] by andre1969
Jun 12, 2008 (4:40 am)

Replying to: tankbeans (Jun 11, 2008 6:03 pm)

Now for me I recently found that all things being equal, for me, if I travel at 65 in my 03 Accord 4-cyl I get about the same mileage as I do going 55. What does this mean, I don't know, but I like it because 55 is a hard speed to maintain especially on the freeway, I can't take the monotony and all the dirty looks.
 
The '03 Accord has a 5-speed automatic, and I think both 4th and 5th gear are pretty tall. I wonder if at 55 mph, the engine just isn't revving enough in top gear to have much power, so it might downshift more often, in situations like when you come to a hill, have to pass a slower moving car, etc? At 65, it might rev just high enough that it can do most of its highway driving in 5th gear.
 
Also, the faster you drive, the further you can coast when you take your foot off the gas, so that will partially negate the increased fuel burned getting up to those higher speeds.

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