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Off Topic Chatter The Stock Market and Investing
66 messages, Last post on Dec 06, 2009 at 8:57 AM
You are in the Off Topic Chatter Forum. Your Host is KarenS
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Replying to: tagman (Nov 29, 2009 6:38 pm) Going nowhere but also going to the moon and back during that period  . I have also had my ups and downs in the stocks I bought lately. The Dubai news back on Friday obviously did not help. I am hoping and thinking that it is an isolated case and not something that will spread like wildfire. We need Len over here to give us some of his expert insight.
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Replying to: cyclone4 (Nov 30, 2009 9:15 am) His previous post would suggest that Apple is still a good buy, and I am inclined to agree with that. I think I should weed out some of the poor performing stocks (out of the 21), and consider buying some more Apple. Also, I think solid large cap stocks that pay dividends are probably a good idea right now. TM
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Replying to: tagman (Nov 30, 2009 9:53 am) I don't remember if I told you several weks ago that I actually did buy a little Apple stock at 191.
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Replying to: cyclone4 (Nov 30, 2009 11:30 am) No, you didn't mention it, but that's very good in the long run. I wasn't all that much ahead of you... it was 187 and change when I bought some. I only bought 53 shares because I bought 20 other stocks at that same time. But now, as I mentioned, I am thinking of weeding out some of those that aren't doing very well and focusing more on the better ones, and I also intend to focus on quality stocks that pay dividends. I'll update you on this soon, as I am seriously thinking about making these adjustments possibly tomorrow or Wednesday. TM
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Replying to: tagman (Nov 30, 2009 9:56 pm) I kind of like what I have been hearing and reading (if one believes it) about the domestic and world economies the past few days. 11,000 Dow by the end of the year is not at all out of the question. I am optimistic about 2010 as well. I think now that Dubai was indeed an isolated case. One of these days maybe Len will join in this discussion. |
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Replying to: cyclone4 (Dec 02, 2009 3:14 pm) To me, 12,000 for the Dow next summer seems realistic. Also, consider the possibility of a surge in small caps first half of next year if the economy gets healthy enough. And, let's just keep hoping that Len enlightens us with his presence here soon. In the meantime, you and I will make sure we stoke the fire. TM |
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Replying to: tagman (Dec 02, 2009 9:30 pm)  !
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Replying to: tagman (Dec 02, 2009 9:30 pm) I've got to love you Tag. You thought I was nuts with Dow 10K by end of this year when I said that last March or so and now you're trumping me 20%. Just kidding you my friend. I've been real busy. Stopped in a few weeks back but didn't see any new posts. So no I'm not abandoning my friends. Briefly, I've loved the large caps till now because of the dollar and their international trading ability but I also am thinking small caps are ripe to get into. So Tag I'm 100% with you on that. But I do Ithink there's going to be tremendous resistance near 11.000 on the Dow and 1200 on the S&P. I hope I'm wrong but that's my gut. If that resistance isn't there than we will run to 12,000 by next summer and then fall back to a trading range in the 11-12,000 range IMO. I always thought Dow 10K by now was an easy call for two reasons. 1. getting some valuation realism back into Wall Street and 2. the tremendous productivity and margin improvements due to the massive layoffs (both of these occuring with just marginal or even no economic growth). All of this so far has been jobless and oil-less. The fact that we are still building tremendous gas stocks (+4mln more this week) in the face of refinery utilization that's been constantly decreasing and is now lower than after Katrina (actually has been for weeks now) shows there is simply no demand at all, and in fact we are still waning there and will be for quite a while to come. What I am amazed at in oil is the level of patience speculators have shown to keep buying something that has so little demand. I was right about consumption but dead wrong about speculation interest lasting in the face of such terrible data. Anyway to get the next leg up to a firm 12,000 that is buildable higher we are going to need to see unemployment start to fall and we are going to need a very slow Fed tightening and we can't have tax increases. I don't agree with anyone that sees the Fed tightening soon simply because inflation is at bay and there are still way too many reasons not to tighten. I'm loving the $5,000 gold predictions. Reminds me of Dow 36,000 and oil $500. Whenever you see that level of extremism predicted get the hell out and take your profits. Anything predicted to that extreme may run up a bit more but those are the first signs of a big fall in the not to distant future. Number 1 rule of investing to me is you don't have to sell at the peak, nor do you have to buy at the bottom. Getting 80-85% of peak will do wonders for you all the time. As for the speeding ticket - It's been handled. Damm Mercedes has to be so quiet at 82mph! Still absolutely love it Tag, It's a phenomenal SUV. Charlie - Have you seen Barrow recently? Ocean frozen and snow covered. How anyone lives there is beyond me. The webcam site had a beautiful full moon yesterday shining on the frozen ocean in the waning days of twilight. Hope you guys all had a great Thanksgiving.
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Replying to: ljflx (Dec 04, 2009 9:20 pm) In my opinion, you have not gotten enough credit for your stock market and economic predictions. You have been dead on. I'm sure Tag will agree . I am rather optimistic that we will indeed see a slow improvement in unemployment and I very much doubt that the Fed will do anything that is aggressive. The gold "freaks" got really pummeled yesterday and I believe this is just the start. |
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Replying to: ljflx (Dec 04, 2009 9:20 pm) Ha... yes, I originally thought your 10K Dow prediction was a bit optimistic, true... but not by such a huge margin to think you were nuts... although I might find other reasons to think you are a nut... haha. IIRC, I was expecting it's highest year-end achievement could reach around 9250. Not only were you right about the 10K, but the market reached your prediction much earlier than anyone suggested. You impressed all of us. Your predictions of a major drop in oil prices earlier in the year, however, were frustrated by continued high prices... and that time you thought I was the nut on my prediction that they would stay high. But...I want you to know that even though you missed the timing on that one... I predict they will indeed finally drop next year. The truth is that your reasoning was sound, but the market was illogical and irrational. Yes, let's hope for minimum resistance at the 11-12K level for the Dow, and let's hope the jobs situation starts to improve with VERY careful fed tightening. I am concerned that the fed might tighten too early or quickly and kill the recovery. Your prediction for Apple stock to go above 300 is encouraging, as I have purchased even more Apple this week on the dip, and now have over 100 shares, along with numerous other stocks. The thing about Apple that is bothering me, however, is that they have recently missed two key opportunities to kick butt. One is on the operating system side, as Windows 7 will force folks to purchase a new OS, Apple has missed this golden opportunity to really promote their OS as a better alternative. Second, regarding the explosive netbook category... the so-called Apple "tablet" is already later to the game than it should be, and they should also have another piece of hardware that is smaller than the Macbook Air, and they don't. That said, I have enough confidence in Apple to own its stock. Anyway, I weeded out a fair number of stocks, took profit on some and cut losses on others, and I will share my latest picks next week when I get a chance. I was pleased to realize how well I've been doing with Advanced Micro Devices lately. I completely agree that it is better to be satisfied with 80-85% of the peaks and dips and not get all too greedy. Glad the MBZ is treating you so well. The GL is still the best large SUV out there... hands down, IMO. Charlie and I will continue to look forward to your posts... and, depending upon the topic, we will either find you here or at the LL. TM |
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