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Sedans Luxury Lounge
21387 messages, Last post on Nov 25, 2009 at 8:11 PM
You are in the Sedans Forum. Your Hosts are pat & karens
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Replying to: ljflx (Jul 06, 2009 8:44 am) That's OK... I know you are just waiting for the day when oil prices drop enough to tell me "I told you so".  But remember... they've been high for quite a while, in spite of fundamentals... so it's a little late for that. Consider that OW's chart shows a lot of upside potential in the future (not the present). And yes, I recognize that conventional wisdon and principles would have had us with lower oil prices than we've had... so it does stand to reason that the prices will work their way down at some point. But, as I've said before, I don't expect them to stay down very low for all too long. The economy will eventually heat up and will pressure the prices right back up again. In addition, the investors will foresee the increased demand that is around the corner and start pushing the prices higher even before the actual demand increases. On top of that, big oil has an historic appetite for big profits, and they will do what is necessary to protect their interests and the interests of their shareholders. That all said... what's the story on the market in your opinion? Still looking for the Dow to be above 10,000 by year-end? Or are you now leaning towards my more-conservative prediction of 9000+/-? TM
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Replying to: cyclone4 (Jul 06, 2009 2:12 pm) First of all best of luck with the RX. On the lease - depends on interest rate on the conventional lease. If it's real low why pay it off so fast? But I have a hard time even thinking about making one lease payment because it's too close to buying a vehicle outright. From my standpoint the purpose of a lease is to keep liquidity rather than tie it up in a vehicle. BTW - Benz dealer near me is doing a 42 month lease on a $95K S550 4 matic with 5 grand down (that covers sales tax and a down payment) and $999 a month. If I were in the market for a car I'd have a hard time passing that up unless Lexus can do better on the 460L AWD. I love both cars and in a big sedan have no interest in anything else. So far the G, LS460L and GL450 are flawless save for the LS recall which I am doing on Friday with normal service. Biggest problem I've had is on the G, if you can call the rubber around both passenger and driver side door sagging a bit and needing replacement a problem. The GL450 was the perfect SUV for my needs and I am thoroughly enjoying it. It's biggest problem so far is the man made leather stains from dark blue denim way too easily and of course the infamous brake dust. The G has far and away the best phone system in that it can have 5 active phones on blue tooth and the voice system is painlessly easy to use. On the Benz and Lexus you can only have 1 phone active at once and have to go in and manually select other phones you have paired. This is one royal pain - particularly on the LS as you can't change once you are driving unless you pull over (haven't tried it yet on the Benz so it may be the same) - and it defeats luxury. Why both brands don't do what Infiniti does is beyond me and why Lexus doesn't tie the phone to the user selection is also beyond me. Then they give you all that great technology for the phone and nav and say you can't touch it once the car is rolling. I'd strangle their stupid lawyers if I could get a hand on them.
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Replying to: tagman (Jul 06, 2009 2:50 pm) Nope - not at all. I've given up trying to figure out senserless speculation, and my POV is always tied to realism. I laugh everytime I see a bozo on CNBC saying a market is not tied to fundamentals and trades to its own beat. I hear that and I just wait for the TIMBER warning.. If you note everything I post about is fundamentals. If oil had better fundamentals I'd be with you in a second. But it doesn't and manipulation runs out of gas (no pun intended). I was'nt happy about selling Apple at $128.50 even after it fell to 118 because that 118 was fear overlooking fabulous fundamentals. I'm kicking myself for not buying it back at that point. I have an auto buy in at $130 if it falls that low. I see it at $160-$180 by early next year. My thinking is that earnings propel the stock market much higher in the 4th quarter thanks to great cost efficiencies that have now been set up but that we see very little uptick in oil demand. Mid next year I can see some fundamental support for oil but we are 6-8 years away from anything resembling demand like last year - IMO - of course. Re - Dow 10,000 - I'm still there thanks to my thinking of a furious late year rally driven by increasing 3rd quarter results and rosy outlooks.
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It is hard to tell on the photo, but the grill is quite different (more sporty and nicer looking) than that of the RX350. Here is the link. http://s567.photobucket.com/albums/ss120/PatsSoxFan/ |
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Replying to: tagman (Jul 06, 2009 2:50 pm) One thing to note is that the NY times ran a story today about governments of the world starting to meet and come up with legislation against excess oil speculation. If that starts to happen than oil can really tank and speculators will have a hard time propping up prices in advance of increasing demand as per your post. One has to take into consideration this is a very real possibility. As well we can't have such vital markets being priced to speculators dreams and hopes given the monster crashes such folks have caused. Take away the speculative bubbles in oil that happened in the 70's, gulf war, 9/11 and last year and oil has been quite stable and very cheap. Governments of the world are a lot more hardened to do something about this, this time bcause of all the bail out money they've poured in. Many are quite angry about the unwarranted oil speculation of the past 4-5 months. One report I read had oil at 80% speculation - which is even higher than last year. If that unwinds too quickly it's another reason why this market could unravel and collapse in a hurry. Link to times story: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/06/business/06oil.html?_r=1
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Replying to: ljflx (Jul 06, 2009 6:49 pm) You are so right about these phone and navigation restrictions with Lexus. Overall however, it sounds like we are both very happy with our vehicles.
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Replying to: cyclone4 (Jul 06, 2009 7:38 pm) Completely agree. The LS460L has been phenomenal and I don't think I could ever get tired of the color we both chose. I also love the ash interior and grey wood I got. Everytime I look at it i think it's granite instead of wood. |
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Replying to: ljflx (Jul 06, 2009 7:34 pm) Either way, it's all messed up, Len. Not healthy. IMVHO, of course. But, I still see some recovery down the road... just not as quick as you seem to. Which makes me wonder just how it is that you see the recovery, yet you don't see the oil demand increasing along with that recovery, which would theoretically support the higher prices.  TM
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Replying to: tagman (Jul 06, 2009 9:08 pm) I think you will find the following article from early this morning extremely interesting. It very much jives wqith Len's thinking. 07/07 05:53 CDT Limits on energy futures to be aired Limits on energy futures to be aired By MARCY GORDON AP Business Writer WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal regulators will examine whether the government should impose limits on the number of futures contracts in oil and other energy commodities held by speculative traders, the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Tuesday. The agency will hold a public hearing later this month to gather views from consumers, businesses and market participants on the idea of new limits for energy futures contracts, CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler said in a statement. It will be the first in a series of hearings in July and August on various topics to determine how the commodities agency "should use all of its existing authorities to accomplish its mission," he said. The move comes against a backdrop of concern in Congress and complaints by traders over speculation in the oil futures market. By law, the CFTC sets limits on the amount of futures contracts in some agricultural products that can be held by each market participant to protect the market against manipulation. But for energy commodities _ crude oil, heating oil, natural gas, gasoline and other energy products _ it is the futures exchanges themselves that set the position limits if they desire to do so. "This different regulatory approach to position limits for agriculture and other physically delivered commodities deserves thoughtful review," Gensler's statement said. "It is incumbent upon the CFTC to ensure a fair and transparent price discovery process for all commodities." Oil traders and brokers have griped that funds traded on exchanges, such as the United States Oil Fund, have pumped billions of dollars into energy commodities _ enough to artificially prop up energy prices. For example, benchmark crude oil prices have roughly doubled since March even though government reports show U.S. supplies brimming with surplus oil. Investors have been buying oil barrels not because of traditional supply and demand, but on the expectation that the economy will eventually improve. Some are also buying crude oil as a hedge against inflation, betting that the dollar will get weaker and push the price of energy commodities even higher. Merrill Lynch estimates that investors are currently plowing $125 billion into commodity indices like the S&P GSCI Commodity Index, up from $80 billion in February. However, much of the increase is due to a rebound in commodity prices, Merrill Lynch analysts said. In Congress, the House approved measures last fall aimed at curbing excessive speculation and trading abuses in oil and other commodity markets, despite a threatened veto by President George W. Bush. The bipartisan legislation called for giving the CFTC broader authority and limiting the size of the position that traders can hold in certain markets. It stalled in the Senate, however. The CFTC twice last year took the unusual step of disclosing investigations into the possible manipulation of prices _ of crude oil and cotton futures. Gensler also said the agency will make improvements to its weekly report on the futures contracts positions held by commercial and noncommercial traders that will provide fuller disclosure of the market data. __ AP Energy Writer Chris Kahn in New York contributed to this report. [Related Stories]
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Replying to: ljflx (Jul 06, 2009 6:57 pm) Futures Limits Timber! Regards, OW |
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