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Sedans Luxury Lounge
21518 messages, Last post on Dec 05, 2009 at 10:07 AM
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Replying to: cyclone4 (Jul 05, 2009 8:04 pm) Agree. Fox news originally started out in the right direction, IMO, with good intentions... but then took a very wrong turn, and is clearly misguided. BTW, nice review of your recent 30-minute dirve. Very impressive. Oh... Regarding oil and gasoline prices, regardless of what analysis we use and blame we place, or trying to determine what the price of oil and gas should be... when it's all said and done, the bottom line is ultimately the actual real-life price itself. TM
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Replying to: cyclone4 (Jul 05, 2009 7:48 pm) No, in fact I've been so bored with Lexus as of late that it's been quite awhile since I've driven any of them. When we get closer to turning in our X3, I'll take one out and let you know. The Q5 still remains at the top of the list, but if my wife doesn't like it, I suppose another RX could be a possibility. Still, I have to wonder if the $5700 premium for the 450 over the 350 when both are equipped with the premium/NAV package could ever be made up in a reasonable amount of time and mileage. I think both versions look like a block of cheese, so I'm not particularly interested in the grille treatment. My biggest concern with the RX is on-center feel. I don't expect it to load in to corners or provide the feedback of an Audi setup. The RX300's steering was so incredibly over-boosted and so full of Aunt Jemima that you had to constantly seesaw the wheel just to keep it in a straight line. The amount of on-center slop was just atrocious. The most recent Toyota product I drove was a new Camry SE, and the steering was basically identical to our old RX300. Hopefully the new RX is a bit better than that. |
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Replying to: tagman (Jul 05, 2009 10:32 pm) You honestly believe the natural price of oil would have been in the $70's last week, $64 and change now in a natural market which showed no signs of oil consumption required to bring prices up from the high $30's and low $40's. Do you really think $147 was a natural price a year ago at this time? Just look at the timing of the Goldman report (which BTW was released a week earlier than it was supposed to be in order to offset a horrendous inventory report that would have crushed prices). These commodity markets are all small and easily manipulated thanks to 20:1 leverage ratios allowed in them vs 2:1 in the much much larger stock and bonds markets. The Goldman report was released early in order to catch a lot of shorts who bet on a bad inventory report and it came in even worse than the shorts hoped for. I have a hard time even thinking of oil as a "real" market. This market dropped 78% last year in less than 6 months. This year s/b a lot better though as the fall from the high should be a mere 40-45%. You want to make money. Just buy oil as soon as Nicaragua starts getting mentioned and note how it's never mentioned during declines. Get out of it ASAP when the ink dries up on Nicaragua terrorist news though.
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Replying to: cyclone4 (Jul 05, 2009 8:04 pm) Ha, don't even get me started. Mark Sanford (D). They do that every time. |
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Replying to: ljflx (Jul 06, 2009 6:43 am) NO! Never said so. But, one thing I do see as natural among many investors is greed. Another thing I see is that old "irrational exuberance". These things twist the fundamentals, sometimes for extended periods. Ultimately, reality often comes in the form of a rude awakening... but in the meantime we can end up with things like protracted high energy prices. Hope that is clearer. TM
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Replying to: tagman (Jul 06, 2009 8:42 am)
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Replying to: tagman (Jul 06, 2009 8:42 am) Here is a chart depicting the last 12 months of avg.oil/gasoline prices in SD. I still agree with ljflx that the price will drop big time. True, the speculators are another factor in the mix but fundamentals beware! The economy is NOT headed up yet as the CNBC GreenShoot Farmers are now turning into WeedHarvestors!  Regards, OW |
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OK you guys. I may have asked this question a long time ago, but I will ask it again. I decided to go with a "one payment lease". Would it be to my advantage to instead pay for the whole thing right now? With the one payment lease, the residual after 3 years is about $34K. One thing that swayed me toward the lease was the fact that hybrid technology will be improving a lot in the next few years.
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Replying to: ljflx (Jul 06, 2009 8:44 am) That's OK... I know you are just waiting for the day when oil prices drop enough to tell me "I told you so". But remember... they've been high for quite a while, in spite of fundamentals... so it's a little late for that. Consider that OW's chart shows a lot of upside potential in the future (not the present). And yes, I recognize that conventional wisdon and principles would have had us with lower oil prices than we've had... so it does stand to reason that the prices will work their way down at some point. But, as I've said before, I don't expect them to stay down very low for all too long. The economy will eventually heat up and will pressure the prices right back up again. In addition, the investors will foresee the increased demand that is around the corner and start pushing the prices higher even before the actual demand increases. On top of that, big oil has an historic appetite for big profits, and they will do what is necessary to protect their interests and the interests of their shareholders. That all said... what's the story on the market in your opinion? Still looking for the Dow to be above 10,000 by year-end? Or are you now leaning towards my more-conservative prediction of 9000+/-? TM
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