Edmunds.com | Inside Line | Auto Observer Your Account | Help | Directory
You are here:
![[F]](http://a332.g.akamai.net/f/332/936/12h/www.edmunds.com/media/townhall/webxicons/site.gif){kind=small}
Forums
Sedans Luxury Lounge
21356 messages, Last post on Nov 24, 2009 at 3:00 AM
You are in the Sedans Forum. Your Hosts are pat & karens
Happy new year to everyone in the forum. I'll be back next year, hopefully I'll see all of you as well. I wish you all new hybrids, diesels, and diesel-hybrids. 
|
|
| Happy New Year for everyone!!! | |
|
Happy New Year to all of you! Hope there aren't too many hangovers out there. I bid a not-so-fond farewell to 2008, and pray that 2009 is a great year. Over the recent years, I believe the unexpected events have been the significant driving forces behind so much of our lives. Some more stability and predictability would be nice for a change, but I'm not counting on it any time soon. I hope your personal lives are enriched, happy and healthy... and, of course, that you all acquire the cars you are seeking, and/or enjoy the ones you already have. One good thing about '08 was the way this forum took a turn for the better. Who knows... maybe Merc will surprise us with a post in '09.  I'm not holding my breath, but it certainly would be cool. That aside, you gentlemen are a terrific group and I enjoy spending some time here exchanging posts. I have definitely learned from all of you, and I see that my perspectives on many things have been influenced here and elsewhere, which is a compliment to all of you. I was, admittedly, dogmatic in my earlier days here, and I find myself less so recently. I sincerely hope I have not offended anyone here, and if so, I ask for your forgiveness, as we move into the new year. The kudos we now give to Asian and European cars is remarkable compared to the way it used to be here. And the auto industry landscape is undergoing so much change in such a short time, it is absolutely mind-boggling. I don't mind saying that year after year, I continue to be impressed with Lexusguy's genuine knowledge of so many automobiles and the automobile industry from a global perspective. But by recognizing LG here, I am by no means overlooking anyone else's contributions... they are all terrific... it's just all too obvious that he is a walking reference book on cars! I am envious, as it is often easier to have an opinion than to have the knowledge.  But, that doesn't mean I agree with everything he posts... because I don't. LOL. I wonder if we are entering into a polarization of the types of vehicles on the road... more gas-sippers on one end of the spectrum, and more horse-power injected machines on the other end? Or, is the entire industry truly moving towards smaller, more gas-efficient vehicles? Or, perhaps both... although technology isn't providing too many very powerful gas-sippers just yet, unless the idea of a Tesla catches on, as it doesn't sip any gas at all. My answer would be that we are in a downsizing trend, because the technology still requires smaller, lighter vehicles in order to get the fuel efficiency that people are increasingly starting to seek. I sure hope the reduced price of gas doesn't spoil the trend, because if history is any indication... well... I think maybe this time it will be different. We'll see. Anyway... best to all of you!!! And here's my toast to a ticket-free 2009. BTW, anyone here want to make any major predictions for 2009? TM
|
|
|
Replying to: tagman (Jan 01, 2009 11:14 am) Well this would certainly be a dull place if everyone always agreed with everyone else  And thank you for the complement, by the way. I wonder if we are entering into a polarization of the types of vehicles on the road... more gas-sippers on one end of the spectrum, and more horse-power injected machines on the other end? Or, is the entire industry truly moving towards smaller, more gas-efficient vehicles? I don't think high horsepower is going away, at least not yet, but we definitely are going to see it in alternate, more efficient forms. Twin turbos and superchargers are making a comeback in a big way, and I think we've probably seen the last of the 760Li, the S600/S65, and the A8 W12. Cars will also most likely stop gaining several inches in size and several hundred pounds of weight after each redesign. I don't think the Tesla itself will ever be more than a toy, and their sedan is most likely DOA. The idea though isn't necessarily flawed. If Hyundai's Lithium-on-silicon sheet batteries actually work as advertised, they could help make an excellent all electric car. Predictions for '09: Chrysler is broken up and sold off, with Jeep the most likely brand to survive under new probably Chinese owners. GM sheds at least half of its brands. Toyota becomes the #1 nameplate in the US, and unquestionably the world's largest automaker. Audi and Infiniti gain some market share at the expense of Mercedes and Lexus. Acura continues to fumble around as a second tier brand along with Volvo. Ford continues to own the shrinking full-size pickup market. I think the Fiesta will be a hit, and the Chevy Cruze will bomb. |
|
|
Replying to: tagman (Jan 01, 2009 11:14 am) Chrysler goes bye-bye unless the congress is stupid enough to keep loaning them money. Jeep and Chrysler will be bought by either a Chinese (Chery and FAW got their eyes on it already, according to CCTV) or Canadian company ( they've been trying to buy Chrysler ever since the Daimler days). They'll fight over Chrysler (300's massively popular in China) Another scenario, based on Jeep's sheer popularity in Russia, can we expect another Nikolai Smolensky coming in all of a sudden? GM will continue to downsize, outsourcing mainly to China. Malibu sales will remain steady at best, but most likely drop from the arrival of new Ford Fusion. Cruze will fare better than Cobalt, but not good enough. The Volt will continue to be delayed, can't shelf it as it'll trigger the congress to balk (we all know why). Expect Saturn and Pontiac 6ft under, Saab goes on sale. Truck based SUVs sales will falter again, weak economy not recovering yet. Overall expect GM to lose even more sales, due to the sentiments of both "failing company" and "taxpayer's money grubber" images. Ford will emerge as the strongest and most popular domestic, thanks to "We don't need any bailout". F150 continue to be the most popular. Fusion sales will rise, and possibly soar (stealing other domestics and even some japanese sales). Fiesta will be a hit, however Mercury and Lincoln will blow. Rumors about Ford selling off it's Mazda shares most likely won't become reality (Ford is realying too much on Mazda platform and parts for it's cars). |
|
|
2nd part of predictions, for non-domestics: Nissan US' sales will hurt, the popularity of it's gems will not be enough to cover the loss from Titan and other trucks/ truck-based SUVs diminishing sales. Expect them to be gone this year, save perhaps Frontier. The arrival of Cube will steal some Scion sales. Toyota will stabilize as it's started to take actions to face the economy. Lexus, arrival of hybrids will save the brand's sales. Honda will start to struggle if it can't get pass the current styling reef. Acura will struggle further from the company's own blunder for straying off mission. Mazda will most likely become the new Nissan (Nissan is starting to go soft on the sport theme) and rising. Other Japanese will continue to struggle, I don't see any of them coming with any turnaround plan. Mitsubishi's very existence will be in jeopardy, perhaps even die along with parent Chrysler. Isuzu will probably leave US market in the near future, focusing on commercial truck sales across the globe. From Europe I expect VW-Audi to become a very significant player globally, particularly since it's so ahead of competition in diesel developments, stealing sales mainly from MB. MB itself will be shaky through 09, relying too much on S and Cclass. BMW will receive a hard blow, the next gen 7 won't do well imo. But thanks to strong management BMW will persevere. Volvo and Jaguar in deep trouble, XF sales still can't cover other models' losses and Tata is starting to crumble (I failed to see this, TM's right afterall ). Land Rover will survive somehow, at least as a niche brand. Another many forgot to mention, Koreans will rise further. Many even fail to see their presence, well, bad luck for them as Hyundai-Kia is lurking in the shadow with a loaded machine gun. Expect them to become the top value player in the compact segment, a contender (but not the top yet) in midsize class. However, Kia Borrego and other non-compact SUV/crossover/minivan and such will tank.
|
|
|
Now that forecasts are being made and both Lexusguy and m4d_cow have predicted that GM's going to walk on the grey border, What do you guys in this forum think the future would be for Ford but in particular GM European Divisions? Opel Insignia has just been voted by European motorcar journalists as the 2009 European Car (321 points), closely ahead of the renewed Ford Fiesta (320 points). Interestingly, truly European car brands came after and distant: Citroen C5 (198 points), Alpha Romeo Mito (148 points), Skoda Superb (144 points) and then Renault Mégane newest generation (121 points). Opel Insignia, 2009 European Car My feeling is European Divisions are juicy enough to be kept by Ford and GM. Or, juicy enough to be sold? The outcome might well depend on the rol played by the European Divisions for their parent American Companies. Is Europe only a market for them, as has been to day IMO? Could Europe be a test place for smaller models with 4 cyl new engine tech to be eventually translated into the USA? Is the average American car owner willing to go in that direction? Regards, Jose (Edit: For global forecasts, BMW gasser and diesel technology should not be forgotten; both are among the world best if not in front of the pack.)
|
|
|
About a week ago, the crude oil futures had come down to about $35. The RBOB (gasoline futures) had plummeted to 78 cents a gallon. That would have supported gas at the pump of about $1.25-1.30. If you recall, I had posted that assuming nothing had changed from that point, this would become a reality. Well, guess what? Things have changed. The gas at the pump, did not drop fast enough to be compatible with the futures. It only reached $1.45 in my area. The crude oil futures have come up to $46-47 and the RBOB is up to $1.10 as of this writing. Thus, I would advise everyone to go fill up your gas tanks today, ASAP. Don't be surprised if it shoots up by 10-12 cents a gallon by tomorrow if not sooner. There! That's my prediction. |
|
|
Replying to: m4d_cow (Jan 02, 2009 8:06 am) VW/Audi will be strong and replace GM to become Toyota's number one competitor. However, I just don't see them to be a major player in the US market. VW is currently in an identity crisis because it is just too "luxurious" and expensive to be competitive in the mainstream market. Audi needs the A4 to be a major selling in its segment (needs something like 5k to 6k units per month) but I have yet to see that happening even with the brand new A4.
|
|
|
Replying to: cyclone4 (Jan 02, 2009 9:05 am) Regards, OW |
|
New? Join Now!
Forum Tools
Search Forums
Browse by Vehicle
Browse by Board
Browse by Topic
Today's Chats
