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New Toyota Camry Hybrid Owners - Give Us Your Report

558 messages,  Last post on Oct 30, 2009 at 1:05 PM

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What is this discussion about? Toyota Camry Hybrid, Car Buying, Sedan


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#396 of 558
Re: To buy a Hybrid now or to buy a regular next year [s60leaser] by mikec
Apr 03, 2008 (11:19 am)
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Replying to: s60leaser (Mar 30, 2008 7:27 am)

Allow me to clarify; the "2009 Fully Loaded Hybrid for $24K" - this basically included the opportunity costs, fuel cost, maintenance cost, lower trade-in on current car, etc.
 
I will provide this as a rough summary which helped me make my decision (I'm excluding taxes, title, licence from this scenario to keep it simple):
 
If I bought now:
Camry Hybrid (fully loaded) : $28,000
Minus Trade-in/Sales of old car :$12,000
Net on vehicle: $16,000
Minus avoided maintenace: $2,000 (was near a big maint interval in terms of miles)
Minus avoided fuel cost: $1,500 (minimum)
Plus refund on extended warranty: $250
Plus Camry Maint for a year:$250
 
Overall net cost: $12,500
 
If I bought a year later (estimate):
Camry Hybrid (loaded): $29,000 (could be higher or lower)
Minus Trade-In/Sale of old car: $9,000 (could be higher, but the trend pointed to this)
Net on vehicle: $20,000
Plus additional maint: $2,000
Plus additional fuel cost:$1,500 (minimum)
Minus refund on extended warranty: $50
Minus Camry maint (which I would not have since I didn't buy the car in the previous year): $250
 
Overall net cost: $23,200
 
So basically, it was $11,000 "cheaper" for me to buy now, than wait a year.
 
You can look at what you pay for a car as one factor - I took a more wholistic approach to determine my oppotunity cost.
 
So bascially, I am driving a new car for $12.5K, and, as Larry David would say "prettay, prettay, prettay" happy about the decision.
#397 of 558
Re: To buy a Hybrid now or to buy a regular next year [mikec] by talmy1
Apr 04, 2008 (6:18 am)
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Replying to: mikec (Apr 03, 2008 11:19 am)

You are counting items twice in a way that makes the difference greater. Looking just at expenses and assuming cars held for same period:
 
Buy now:
Net on vehicle $16000
New maintenance $250
Lost future value trading new hybrid that is a year older $3000
Additional maintenance of new hybrid held a year longer $2000
Overall net cost 21,250
 
Buy in a year:
Net on vehicle $20000
Maintenance of old car $2000
Additional fuel cost $1500
Additional extended warranty cost on old car $200
Overall net cost $23,700
#398 of 558
Re: To buy a Hybrid now or to buy a regular next year [talmy1] by mikec
Apr 04, 2008 (7:31 am)
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Replying to: talmy1 (Apr 04, 2008 6:18 am)

Your numbers do not make sense. There is no double counting. (although I should have been clearer that the Camry maint. and refund on Warranty cancel each other out in the "buy now" scenario; the net number is still correct.
 
Each transaction would need to be viewed as discrete events and compared.
 
The future value of the hybrid resale or maintenace have no relevance in the buy now vs one year later scenario. It's the opporunity cost of purchasing the Camry now, not selling it in the furture. Not only are they not relevant, your estimates for furture maint and resale are incorrect (becuase you assume them to be the same as my current vehicle.)
#399 of 558
Re: To buy a Hybrid now or to buy a regular next year [mikec] by talmy1
Apr 04, 2008 (9:06 am)
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Replying to: mikec (Apr 04, 2008 7:31 am)

You are showing the difference in cost between buying this year (let's call it A) and next (lets call it B), so you are looking at B-A. If you add an expense, say X, to B and also subtract it from A, then the difference in cost is B+X-(A-X) or B + 2X - A, so the cost is factored in twice. You've done this on several items which make a purchase this year more favorable than it actually is.
 
As a separate matter, I tried to take into account that by buying now you end up with a hybrid that is a year older, so will at any point in time have more depreciation and presumably more maintenance cost. Hard to say what those exact values are, and I just plugged in the same numbers as for your current car, but it still should be part of the equation.
#400 of 558
Re: To buy a Hybrid now or to buy a regular next year [talmy1] by jaxs1
Apr 04, 2008 (9:17 am)
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Replying to: talmy1 (Apr 04, 2008 9:06 am)

Yes, I have seen car salesmen use that type of logic to sell cars. They say you better buy it now, because if you buy later your trade-in will be worth less than it is now (ignoring that the depreciation on the new car will also start at that point).
#401 of 558
Re: To buy a Hybrid now or to buy a regular next year [talmy1] by mikec
Apr 04, 2008 (10:24 am)
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Replying to: talmy1 (Apr 04, 2008 9:06 am)

Again, nothing is factored twice - let's look at the assumptions I am using. And I will do this clearly without X-B+C formulas. And I will even simplfy it. This is a classic economics example.
 
Today, based on my assumptions, what is more advantageous by now or one year later?.
 
Assumptions - I want to drive a similar style vehicle. I want to avoid excessive out-of-warranty costs, maintenance costs, or fuel costs. I prefer to buy a new vehicle.
 
My current car is a sunk cost. I have it. It is a fact it will be have less value when I sell it one year from now with the additional mileage. (So the whole depreciation of the new vehicle (Camry) is irrelevant - it does not factor into the purchase decision. (Sure it may factor into a furture selling/purchasing decision down the road, but that is not the part of this decision scenario)
 
It is also a fact that it I stay with current car, I will have at least $2,000 in additional maintenace, and at least $1,500 in additional fuel costs. Right there, based on today, if nothing changes, I have "spent" $3,500.
 
It is an estimate that the price of a Camry Hybrid will go up by $1,000. I think this is a conservative estimate, Other's may disagree. A basic 2007 TCH was $25,900. A basic 2009 TCH is 27,160, so I think I'm in the right ballpark.
 
It is an estimate of how much my current car will be worth a year from now. I see a $3K difference, based on the trends for similar models. Maybe it wil only be $2K less. Again, I thnk I am in the ballpark, but others may disagree.
 
So if I do "nothing" I am still out the maint, additional fuel. and current resale potiential (total $6,500)
 
If I buy next year, I pay 29K, sell old car for 9K, So cost is 20K. I have to add in the maint and fuel differentials, because I had to incrur them. So that's $23.5K of "opportunity value/cost"
 
If I buy today, I pay 28K for the car. I sell my old car for 12K. So the cost is 16K.
I have to factor in the cost avoidance and fuel savings of $3,500, because I would have incurred that (even though I do not have the old car). (Some may disagree but remember, I know I will spend that if I do not buy now, so it _has_ to factor into consideration. So it's $12.5K to me in terms of "opportunity value/cost").
 
If I buy next year, I pay 29K, sell old car for 9K, So cost is 20K. I have to add in the maint and fuel differentials, because I had to incrur them. So that's $23.5K of "opportunity value/cost"
 
Buy today - $12.5K
Buy tomorrow - $23.5K
 
Again this is "opportunity cost/value", of the "what-if", not "actual dollars" examines after the fact a year from now.
#402 of 558
Re: To buy a Hybrid now or to buy a regular next year [jaxs1] by mikec
Apr 04, 2008 (10:27 am)
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Replying to: jaxs1 (Apr 04, 2008 9:17 am)

I was not presenting car salesmen logic - I was present my scenario and factors. I've talked to hundreds of car salesmen, and they have NEVER suggested "buy now because your car will be worth less". (Most freely admit I can sell on the car on my own for more than the trade-in; the trade-in is just a convience factor.)
They are usually pushing why it's nice to drive the new car. I have had them comment on resale as a selling point of the new car (ex. Honda, Toyota), but not as reason to dump current car.
#403 of 558
Re: To buy a Hybrid now or to buy a regular next year [mikec] by jaxs1
Apr 04, 2008 (10:38 am)
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Replying to: mikec (Apr 04, 2008 10:27 am)

Well, I have personally seen salesman use the the tactic of saying you should buy now because your trade in will depreciate every month you wait.
However, the new car will you purchase today will depreciate at a much higher rate than an older will over the same time period, so depreciation cost isn't a savings.
#404 of 558
Re: To buy a Hybrid now or to buy a regular next year [jaxs1] by mikec
Apr 04, 2008 (10:48 am)
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Replying to: jaxs1 (Apr 04, 2008 10:38 am)

True, depreciation is not a cost savings (unless you are buying the car as part of a business). Also true that newer cars depreciate faster than older ones (which everyone knows).
 
In my example, I am not talking the accounting term of depreciation - I am talking the value of the car today on the market vs one year later on the market. Older and more used = less value.
#405 of 558
A/C in Texas by texases
Apr 04, 2008 (12:00 pm)
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I'm considering a TCH, and was wondering how the A/C handles 100+ degree days. How about when you come out to the car after it's been in the sun all day? Any differences?

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