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What to expect from the next model year Prius - READ ONLY

311 messages,  Last post on Apr 26, 2009 at 6:43 AM

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What is this discussion about? Toyota Prius, Hybrid Cars, Car Buying, Hatchback, Sedan

Messages Page 9 of 32

#79 of 311 Residual after 3 yrs for cars bought in 2004 and those on sale today by nm_socal

Sep 04, 2007 (4:00 am)

Friends:
  
This does not seem to make sense. New cars are going for $21-25k, while used ones from 2004 with comparable options are being listed in autotraders within $17-22k range.
  
This makes the 3-yr residual for cars bought in 2004 at over 80%. That seems believable for a Toyota (or a Honda for that matter). But why is the residual value on new Prius's as low as 52-54% (as reported by other posters)?
  
Does it mean that the resale values of today's cars, after three years (2010-2011), would be substantially lower, when the new generation of hyrids (80-100 mpg) hits the market?
  
If this is true, then, for those who can afford to defer their decision by a year or so, does it make sense to wait?
  
Please advise. My lease ends in a month ... I love the car, despite its heavy fuel consumption, which forces me to actively consider a hybrid ... but I'm concerned about how much value I might lose in 3-4 years. Is there anyone with access to a crystal ball???
  
Thanks in advance,
NM

#80 of 311 Re: Residual after 3 yrs for cars bought in 2004 and those on sale today [nm_socal] by kdhspyder

Sep 04, 2007 (8:23 am)

Replying to: nm_socal (Sep 04, 2007 4:00 am)
Don't confuse residual value with retail resale value or trade-in value for that matter.
 
The fact is that residual values on leased vehicled always will show about a 50% loss after 3 or 4 yrs no matter what vehicle you are discussing. The auto finance company is protecting itself because it is required to 'buy back' your vehicle at the guaranteed residual value.
 
Trade in value is usually lower still because the trading company has to consider that it has to add costs to bring the traded vehicle back to market and it has to pay a commission to the sales person and it has to make a profit on the resale.
 
Retail resale value depends on a huge array of factors which might distort the figures dramatically. If your local community has a relative 'shortage' of used hybrids then the ones trying to sell theirs in the paper and online will certainly be looking to get top dollar. You also have to make sure you are comparing apples to apples in equipment. There is a significant different in price between a base Prius and a loaded '04 model. It might be $4000-$6000.
 
Finally supply is the key factor in resale pricing. Toyota just jumped the supply of Prius' by nearly 60% this year as opposed to 2004 when they had a true shortage situation.
~ 70000 sold in 2004
~150000 will be sold this year.

#81 of 311 Can this be... by wwest

Oct 11, 2007 (1:30 pm)

Article in the NYTimes seems to indicate the next Prius will be rear engine RWD....

#82 of 311 Re: Can this be... [wwest] by kdhspyder

Oct 11, 2007 (5:23 pm)

Replying to: wwest (Oct 11, 2007 1:30 pm)
I can only imagine that it will be one of the 'Prius' models that were discussed last year. At that time there was talk about an A, B and C model coming as Toyota might go with a whole 'Prius' mini-lineup like the Scions.

#83 of 311 09 Prius by bennb

Oct 13, 2007 (2:46 pm)

From what I've heard the '09 will be a mild re-fresh (different headlight style and the like) ... the major change will be in 2010. Also heard '09 may have lithium ion batteries that will get better fuel economy, but that may wait till 2010 as well.

#84 of 311 Re: 09 Prius [bennb] by 210delray

Oct 13, 2007 (7:51 pm)

Replying to: bennb (Oct 13, 2007 2:46 pm)
That's correct about the '09 -- just a refresh. I believe the next generation car has been delayed to calendar year 2010, so when it appears, it will be a 2011 model. The lithium-ion batteries won't show up until the new generation debuts.

#85 of 311 Re: 09 Prius [210delray] by stevegold

Oct 14, 2007 (10:10 pm)

Replying to: 210delray (Oct 13, 2007 7:51 pm)
What about the turbo and the auto parallel parking feature?

#86 of 311 Re: 09 Prius [stevegold] by 210delray

Oct 15, 2007 (1:29 pm)

Replying to: stevegold (Oct 14, 2007 10:10 pm)
No turbo for this generation; I don't know about the parallel parking feature.

#87 of 311 Re: 09 Prius [stevegold] by wwest

Oct 16, 2007 (11:54 am)

Replying to: stevegold (Oct 14, 2007 10:10 pm)
I don't believe that an Atkinson Cycle engine would have enough energy/heat left in the exhaust output to drive a turbo. Barely enough to keep the catalyst at optimum temperature as it is.
 
On the other hand a small lightweight (carbon fiber??)variable speed positive displacement SuperCharger (w/intercooler) driven by an AC motor, itself driven by yet another variable frequency AC solid state inverter, might be an ideal solution.
 
Or maybe an SC primarily belt driven by the engine but via another e-CVT controlled by a light duty/hp (5-7HP??) AC motor on the opposite end of the planetary reduction gearset. 4:1 reduction would yeild 25-28 HP to the SC and allow continously variable BOOST through the Full RPM/load range of the ICE.
 
Minimal or no BOOST at all just cruising along and no high RPM OVER-boost to provide a WASTE bypass for.

#88 of 311 Re: 09 Prius [wwest] by stevedebi

Oct 16, 2007 (1:12 pm)

Replying to: wwest (Oct 16, 2007 11:54 am)
"I don't believe that an Atkinson Cycle engine would have enough energy/heat left in the exhaust output to drive a turbo. "
 
Turbos are driven by exhaust pressure, not temperature.
 
Keep in mind that a supercharger is mechanically driven and requires energy to run - it boosts power at the cost of economy. To make the net use of SC workable, the engine would have to be smaller or use less fuel.

Messages Page 9 of 32

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