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Classic Cars What Will Be a Future Classic?
588 messages, Last post on Sep 06, 2009 at 3:54 PM
You are in the Classic Cars Forum. Your Host is mr_shiftright
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Replying to: andre1969 (Jul 09, 2006 7:09 pm) Horsepower Sensation with the public when new smashing good looks respected and admired Those would be 5 MINIMAL requirements that modern cars would have to meet to have any top tier value in the future. If you think of all the "hot" collectibles you're talkinga about, just about all of them would meet at least 4 out of the 5 categories. Remember also that the public drives the market, not the other way round. The muscle car market is hot because baby boomers with money want them. They are the engine of the market. Too many buyers and too few special cars. I don't think the 20 somethings of today will be lusting for today's modern cars, because they can own them now, on credit or by having daddy buy them. And there are very very few cars produced today in very limited numbers, like the high dollar Hemis. For a Hemi to be worth $1,000,000, just any old Hemi won't do. It would have to be 1 out of maybe 10 or 35 cars in existence. You don't see that today. A Hemi stuck in a Satellite coupe isn't going to sell for anything like that. A '58 Corvette is valuable, but you can't hardly give away a '79 or '80 (no power, no respect). Yet an 86 (or was it '87?) Buick GNX brings big bucks (there's the rarity and power) Even a 1996 Impala SS can bring decent money--the very rare case of a 4-door sedan being collectible. Why? It was rare, it was cool, it had some decent power, relative to all other American 4-doors of the time. Will it ever sell for big bucks? No, but it will always be of interest. |
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.... when my 7-year old hits my age (20 years old for the 28th time) and the baby boomer's are long gone there may be a serious reduction in Car Show content. I can't envision the car show & auto nostalgia trend fading to much. It seems like it has to encounter some sort of transition into something that will retain an interest beyond the old school auto's. ____________________________________________________ andre1969 Savings Bonds??  NAW! That's boring! Besides that; by having things that my son will have to work at selling will make him more appreciative to what things are really worth and give him some control in deciding what to keep and what to sell (for his kids). He is already showing a great interest and aptitude in what is being done to improve his mental and educational development. He is going to learn that even if it is JUST handed to him, it still won't be an easy walk in paradise. We have collected a ton of unusual stuff for him and even some acreage. Actually; if I were to sell off everything - I would be able to do a FULL & COMPLETE restore on my Coup De and still get another classic daily driver. Taking a savings bond to a bank won't teach him much about valuing things in life - not that he doesn't already have some bonds (but 30 years isn't going to pay for college in 10 years - right?)... He isn't going to be a trust fund baby that gets everything handed to him! It's about that hand up not out!
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is what's going to happen to the really old cars, like Model A's and 30's and 40's cars and such. I imagine that something like a nice Duesenberg, Pierce Arrow, Auburn, etc will always be worth a small fortune, but as these older people who have the real old cars die out, what will happen to them? Even with something like DeSotos, I let my membership with the DeSoto club of Maryland expire because I just didn't have much in common with most of the other members. I bought the thing when I was 20. I'd say that the three next youngest members were old enough to be my father, and most of the rest were so old they were practically swapping Civil War stories and tales of the Great Flood and that loon who built the big boat and rounded up all the animals! I did notice at Carlisle this past weekend though, there was a pretty good turnout of DeSotos. Probably at least 15. I remember the first time I went to the Mopar show in 1997. There was only one DeSoto, as I recall, a blue 1959 Firesweep hardtop made to look like a convertible. It had been used in the movie "Mystery Date". Now I can always see 50's cars, at least from about 1955 and onward, having some interest, just because they were so wild by today's standards. Tailfins, chrome, a vast array of colors and interior choices, and the dawn of performance. Your typical V-8 50's car, even a mild one, can still keep up with modern traffic. In contrast, many cars older than that just aren't that adept at coping with today's higher speeds. And I'm sure that the musclecars, ponycars, and any convertible from the 60's onward will continue to hold interest. But I do wonder about the really old cars. They're nice as curiosities and museum pieces, but as their owners die off, I just can't imagine many of the future generations who don't remember them having much interest.
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Replying to: reallandyacht (Jul 09, 2006 10:15 am) Lets just say that the gas situation gets really bad (6 or 8 dollar gas) in the next 20 or so years. Something as common as a V-8 F-150 or Hemi 300 may be worth big buck because the represent a bygone era just like the muscle cars do today and the Cord's and Duesenburgs did before that, when they were the gem of the collector market. What if it goes the other way and alternative fuels are found, cars become more effiecient and there is no longer a need for Prii, Fit's etc? Do they become collectible? Shfty is right (as usual) in that small production numbers, buzz at the time of launch and power usually bode well for a car's future collectability. Problem is, in the car manufacturers zeal to make money, there are few and far between examples of that situation anymore. My guess is that there are a few that have always had a following (Vette, Mustang) and will continue, but none of those will fetch a few million at the 2035 Barett-Jackson. Could be lean times for the car collector hobby in the not so distant future.
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Replying to: au1994 (Jul 10, 2006 6:08 am) Sounds trite but rings true. If fewer and fewer people want Model Ts in the future, then they will go down and down in value to the point say, of old farm machinery---you'll have a few collectors who have the old barn to store them, but their value will stagnate and eventually, the families (inheritors) will be pulling their hair out deciding what to do with yet another old Model T or tractor. Remember they made 15 million Ts at least and there's still a good aftermarket. Abundance + loss of interest do not bode well. The Hemis of today could be the tulips of long ago Holland---one day, people might just wake up and say "Hey, wait a minute, a Plymouth isn't worth one million dollars"--and boom, the whole thing collapses in a heap in a matter of weeks. Maybe some of these collectibles are indeed "works of art" but they are big smelly, leaking works of art filled with gasoline that need constant repair and maintenance. Last of all, people get tired of seeing the same cars over and over again....I think only truly unique automobiles can capture people's imagination over the course of time. My predictions for which OLD cars will retain value? 1. Capable of driving on modern roads 2. Somewhat reliable 3. Parts supply/aftermarket support 4. Retention of the mythology surrounding the car (what was its STORY?) What's the story behind a '54 Studebaker 4-door? Pretty obscure to most of us today, totally lost to someone ten years from now----but a Hemi still might have a mythology.
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Replying to: Mr_Shiftright (Jul 10, 2006 6:35 am) I know whomever ends up having to liquidate my estate when the time comes probably won't be pleased. Presuming I still have them, I guess the DeSoto and Catalina might be worth something. Probably the junkyard for the rest of them though. Unless by some off-chance someone rights a story about a possessed 1979 5th Avenue in a shade of red that wasn't offered from the factory that kills people and falls in love with its teenaged owner, and then a movie gets made about it, and there ends up being a rush of people who want a 1979 5th Avenue bad enough that they're willing to snatch up regular NYers, St. Regises, Newports, etc and try to make them look like that particular movie car. 
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Replying to: reallandyacht (Jul 10, 2006 3:58 am) Compare it to 20s cars 20-30 years ago. Many can be bought cheaper now than then. From the old magazines I have, it seems a nice Model A roadster was more in 1981 than today. You want a good investment? The old standby...property.
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Replying to: andre1969 (Jul 10, 2006 4:52 am) Funny about the estate thing...I plan to have my fintail forever anyway...I am sure that won't have any heirs fighting. |
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Replying to: fintail (Jul 10, 2006 7:12 am) That's true. Land is one thing they can't make any more of, and the population is going nowhere but up. I had thought about maybe buying the place behind my grandmother. It sold in 2003 and the owner started fixing it up, but then slowed down and it sat empty forever. A family just moved into it about a week ago. They're doing the rent-to-buy thing. The buy price? $375,000! He paid about $143K for it 3 years ago. I tried to buy it back then, but my agent said it needed so much work to not offer any more than $100K for it. The biggest strike against it was that it was hooked up to a septic tank of questionable reliability. And it was about 400 feet off the road, which would have cost a ridiculous amount to hook up to the sewer! I also don't think it would have been quite as easy to put a 4-car garage on its half acre lot, either. 
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Among the common brands (neglecting rare cars such as the Lotus Elise, Acura NSX, etc), these are the closest to classics that I can think of since about 1990: 1. Ford Mustang Bullit model (2001-?) Pros had limited release, common name, movie association Cons not particularly fast among Mustangs - some of the SVT Cobra models will likely be more sought after 2. Toyota Supra Twin Turbo (1994-1997) Pros limited availability due to price shifting with later Supra models, good reputation among racers - already seeing high prices Cons might have been some turbo reliability issues since Toyota is out of the turbo market now 3. Honda Civic SI (1999-2000) Pros moderate availability, however, very few are left that haven't been trashed by teenagers Cons not particularly fast 4. Chevrolet Typhoon and Cyclone (late 1980's early 1990's) - not sure of the production dates - might be earlier than 1990
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Classic Cars What Will Be a Future Classic?
