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Classic Cars What Will Be a Future Classic?
588 messages, Last post on Sep 06, 2009 at 3:54 PM
You are in the Classic Cars Forum. Your Host is mr_shiftright
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Replying to: fintail (Jul 18, 2006 8:53 am)
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Replying to: Mr_Shiftright (Jul 18, 2006 10:52 am) Oh well, there's really just as much if not more fun in the under 10K market. |
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I wait for the really old collectors to pass on so I can pick up a Mercer Raceabout or a Simplex Speedster on the cheap.
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Replying to: turboshadow (Jul 18, 2006 12:01 pm) I really like the early pre-1905 material, and you can get simple 1-2 cyl cars from that era for not a fortune. But the huge locomotive like things still carry big pricetags. I wonder if that will change. |
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Replying to: turboshadow (Jul 18, 2006 12:01 pm) |
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I think despite the fact that the market for pre-WWII cars in general is probably not the greatest, the classics will remain classics. Nobody is going to 'forget' about Stutz Bearcats, Deusenbergs, Cords, custom-bodied Lincolns or V-16 Cadillacs, even when the people who grew up around them are gone. Coming full circle....I half-watched some car restoration show recently (computer and TV in the same room, bad combo for the ADD-inflicted), where the restoration shop bought a '71 Pontiac LeMans coupe for $1000 and 'transformed' it (sort of) into a '70 GTO. The show was really irritating to me on several levels. I mean, the shop probably did an excellent 'quality' job of physically and mechanically creating the end result, and I don't think the shop/seller was trying to deceive anyone into thinking this was a 'real' 1970 GTO, as if that were something exotic anyway (presumedly, the process wouldn't be on video). The mission was basically to create a fast, pretty car with a high profit margin, I guess. They spent ~$45k (according to seller, probably grossly inflated) to 'restore' this car, which included, to the ire of the shop owner, having to graft an eBay-bought nose of a '70 GTO onto the '71 LeMans (not an exact fit: a surprise to everyone). The car was beautiful, and I'm sure quite fast, but I guess I just didn't see anything like $45k in value. Um, it was a '71 LeMans hardtop tarted up with a big engine, a 'cool' interior, nice body work and a '70 GTO front end...pretty much what my uncles did when I was a teenager but at a higher level, except beginning with the real thing. I mean, as a buyer, if all you want is a nice real '70 or '71 GTO hardtop, couldn't you buy one for less than $45k? And if you just want something fast, aren't there better ways to achieve that? The whole excercise just seemed really stupid to me. The shop owner had zero interest in maintaining any vehicular integrity, other than his perception of the market value of a 'correct' GTO, which isn't what he had anyway (he wanted pie-in-the-sky GTO money with a 'GTO' he created). I guess I just think it would have been smarter to fix up the '71 LeMans nicely, not over-restore and represent and sell it as such. End result, the car went unsold at $40k 'real money', which was less than break-even for the shop (so much for the Grand Plan). It was laughable, but like I said, irritating, only because it really put the level of greed into perspective, and for the fact that the 'builder' jumped through many hoops to make one car into another, had it all on video, had an idiot with too much money, IMO (who clearly didn't care that this wasn't a real GTO, either) in hand to buy the car, then turned it down. Oh yeah, and the 'restoration' was mostly done by students. 
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Replying to: ghulet (Jul 22, 2006 11:19 pm) And if the muscle car market correction co-incides with an actual economic correction in the U.S., then it could get ugly, because the first things to go out most people's doors in a recession are the "toys". All that is fine with me, as corrections return the market back to the hobbyist, so I can hardly wait. |
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This seems prety clear to me. There are a few reasons behind why anything (not just cars) becomes collectible. 1. Rarity (increasing over time) 2. Performance (not applicable to baseball cards and the like) 3. Nostalgia (Things you wanted or used to have when you were a kid ) 4. Historical Value or fame (a specific race car for instance, or a old master painting) 5. Mob mentality (ex. "investors" buying muscle cars because everyone else is) I really think that covers pretty much the whole psychology of value appreciation in collectibles. It is a mix of the personal and the social values we set for these objects. A lot of the muscle car Barret Jackson freaks are in their late 50s-60s etc... they are Boomers looking for the cool car they wanted as a kid. That's why the 50s style stuff was so big in the 80s (not that it isn't still but there is much less direct connection now because guys who drove the 55' chevys new off the lot are not neccesarily driving anymore) Now my generation (I'm 26) loves the cars we saw as kids and teenagers as well. For me despite the lack of perfomance typified by 1980s vehicles there was a certain square design esthetic which I loved. Cars I would collect would be Volvo 240s, The Volvo Bertone Coupe, BMW 6 series cars, any 80s ferrari or lambo obviously, Jag xj6s (nightmares I know) grand wagoneer jeeps, etc... these are the cars we drove around in with our families or aspired to at an impressionable age. In high school I would have killed for a last generation M3 so I still favor it over the newer more powerful version. Supras, the 96'ish Impala sleeper, or Mazda Rx-7s were also cool at the time. Even the Mitsubishi eclipses before they got fat and slow. Wrxs and evos will probably be the big thing for current high schoolers if any last long enough to be collected. All of these cars fill one or more of the needs listed above. The muscle car segment will slow down significantly I predict as the years go on because the late 70s-1990s American muscle cars were anemic to say the least. I just don't see anyone saving up to buy that Mustang 5.0 or mid 90s firebird anytime soon. For me the fact that Vanilla Ice had a white 5.0 in his video pretty much killed it for me. I think though that rarer good conditioned higher performing German Sports sedans and Japanese sports cars will rise sooner rather in later. These segments really didn't exist until the mid 1980s so they are only hitting 20 years now. I bet in 15 years you will be kicking yourself for not having picked up that 87' M6 for $15k when you had the chance, or not holding onto that low milage Supra with the full hoop wing.
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Replying to: teds1 (Jul 26, 2006 8:04 am) If I may throw in my two cents, the only item missing from your very thorough list is that every single really "hot" collectible today generated a LOT of excitement when it was new. The cars people went completely bonkers over back then they are still going bonkers over. They still love the Hemi 'Cuda and they still yawn at a 318 Satellite. The Bertone put them to sleep, the Ferrari 308 disappointed them ultimately (too slow). Of course, if you are talking about "collectible" as a cheap hobby car under $10K, or even under $5K (the XJ6 qualifies here) then some of the cars on your list will or have made the colectible gradesomeday I think--just because they have some character to them. But I think the only person who will kick themselves over an M6 is the one who paid a lot of money for it expecting it to rise in value. It's a car you buy, enjoy and use up doing fun things with it. If anyone wants to kick themselves, it should be over cars like the early 911s, which have only recently nearly doubled in price. But that took 35 years and these cars were always well-liked and admired....the problem was that there were too many surviving---so now attrition is working in the early 911s favor. |
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Hope that the future museums for automobiles feature all the significant cars of each decade. While I too love the 'Cuda, Hemi or not, or a fine Stang, I do recall how cars like the Datsun 510 and Z made the day for Nissan. Supra's to Falcons, fast or slow, there were a lot of significant cars. I did see a Corvair in the National Auto Museum in Reno, and some other cars, like the first Toronado. This is good. This Hemi and performance car craze is just like the other poster said, a mob mentality. Sure we all knew a friend or two in high school that had a quick car, many of which ended up totalled, but for the most part, they are more dream cars of the era. A classic slant six Dart or Demon is just as important to preserve as is a more limited sold V8. This deal about popular or unpopular is interesting. Most popular in the 70's is gonna be the four cylinder and six cylinder gas saver cars. Maybe it is popular dreams. I admit to a major lapse in judgment in buying a four cylinder Mustang. Please, preserve only the V8 in this case -- OK, unless you own one, sorry about that folks. I think the cars, like the first Z, are precious for collecting. Excellent example of a great car - not your typical appliance car from Japan, but a true fun, performer with looks. A good one, without rust would be cool. I may not want to drive one around California freeways, with all those SUV bullies, but it truly is a collectable, and I think a classic. Not many good ones, without rust out. What of the Pinto Stangs? I heard they sold like hotcakes. Now I see very few on the road. Perhaps a classic. If you don't mind the Pinto stigma.  More ya think of it, they looked OK. For awhile there, everyone and their brother collected those '79 Sevilles, but I see few these days. Actually, what of the Eldo's? Many people liked the rectangular ones. I really liked the last rendition. The 2002 last of Eldo should be a classic. And what about the last Cadillac Deville which looked classic Caddy, back in say 1998? Maybe it is just me, but the new ones, while good cars, no doubt, lost that Cadillac image somehow. How about those BMW which still looked BMW, like the 325? I bet people are mistaking some of the new ones for say a Japan make. Seems to me the most popular of all times though was the 320. I know, too bland. How about the 633 csi? -Loren |
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Classic Cars What Will Be a Future Classic?
