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What Will Be a Future Classic?

588 messages,  Last post on Sep 06, 2009 at 3:54 PM

You are in the Classic Cars Forum. Your Host is mr_shiftright

What is this discussion about? Future Vehicle, Coupe, Convertible, Sedan


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#31 of 588
Re: Cars Shows [m1miata] by Mr_Shiftright HOST
Jul 17, 2006 (12:18 am)
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Replying to: m1miata (Jul 16, 2006 6:03 pm)

Old BMWs have been historically very poor performers as collectibles for some reason. There are a few rare exceptions but even those aren't worth the cost of restoring them (I was thinking of 2002 Tii and 3.0 coupes).
 
As for Crossfires, it seems to fall under one rule of collectibles, which is "unloved when new, unloved when old".
#32 of 588
Options by john500
Jul 17, 2006 (11:50 am)
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One of the things touched upon by others that is lacking in the current automobile lineup is the option packages. The Honda Prelude that m1miata mentioned comes to mind as a good example of a potential collector car. However, Honda seemed to offer one or two factory options and let the aftermarket manufacturers take car of alternatives. The $1,000,000 Barracudas were generally for 1970 cars (an aggressive and desirable year for the body style) and had a rare option package. There were probably four or five engine packages in that year (318, 383, 440, Hemi, etc) along with carb options.
 
If Honda, for example, made in the final production year a special factory assembled supercharger option with enhanced handling for the Acura RSX type S and sold 3,000 or so units, then this would likely go down as a collector car. As it is, Honda will only build the RSX and RSX type S base units and rely upon Jackson Racing or some aftermarket company to supply superchargers. In 20 years, if an RSX type S with a supercharger is on the market, the thought process of a collector will be if the supercharger was installed by a hack and this will likely decrease the value instead of exponentially increasing the value if the manufacturer did the install.
#33 of 588
Re: Options [john500] by fintail
Jul 17, 2006 (12:46 pm)
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Replying to: john500 (Jul 17, 2006 11:50 am)

I wonder if that would make a big difference. Not many limited production performance options anywhere these days. I see only minor difference for early M-series BMWs, and early AMG Mercedes are usually little more than curiosities sought by die-hard enthusiasts. I can't see Japanese cars being any different. Maybe time will change this, but I doubt there will be much change.
#34 of 588
Re: Options [fintail] by Mr_Shiftright HOST
Jul 17, 2006 (12:52 pm)
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Replying to: fintail (Jul 17, 2006 12:46 pm)

If a car is even ten years old, 1996 models that is, it should already be showing signs of collectibility. If there's no buzz after a decade, there won't ever be IMO. If the ten year old car isn't bringing "over retail blue book", then it's not happening.
#35 of 588
Re: Options [Mr_Shiftright] by fintail
Jul 17, 2006 (1:15 pm)
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Replying to: Mr_Shiftright (Jul 17, 2006 12:52 pm)

Cars like old M3s and C36s (now 10 years old) have solid enthusiast bases, but no real common-market collectibility. I bet most non car people think of them as newer cars. I've actually had a couple people recognize my C43 as being unusual...but it's not a mass market thing.
 
The same for Supras...they have a following, but aren't really appreciating from what I can see, and it seems impossible to find one that hasn't been messed with.
#36 of 588
Re: Options [fintail] by Mr_Shiftright HOST
Jul 17, 2006 (3:41 pm)
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Replying to: fintail (Jul 17, 2006 1:15 pm)

That brings up an interesting point. The collector car hobbyists can't be told to appreciate certain cars, or prvented from liking ones that seem unworthy of admiration.
 
Sometimes what is and isn't collectible doesn't make any sense.
#37 of 588
Re: Options [Mr_Shiftright] by fintail
Jul 17, 2006 (5:42 pm)
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Replying to: Mr_Shiftright (Jul 17, 2006 3:41 pm)

I think some of these low production tuned cars will be "collectible" in the special interest sense...I just can't see an explosion in values like the current musclecar fad. Should we have gas in 20-30 years, the Ms and AMGs and Supras etc will be worth something to someone - they won't depreciate to (relative) zero like normal cars...but I can't imagine prices 50x original MSRP for any of them.
#38 of 588
Re: Options [fintail] by Mr_Shiftright HOST
Jul 18, 2006 (6:45 am)
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Replying to: fintail (Jul 17, 2006 5:42 pm)

No, I think you're right---these "special interest" cars will bottom out at some point and just sit there for eternity....like they are doing now actually.
 
It's interesting to see how the "cellar price" works...let's say an old Mercedes 6.3 sedan or a BMW 3.0 coupe....they can't go above a certain price range no matter how nice they are and never seem to drop below a certain price range no matter how ratty.
 
You'd think that normal attrition would drive the price up but it doesn't seem to---perhaps the number of cars that die off and the number of people who want them also die off at the same rate.
 
With Mopar muscle, it seems the opposite. The number of Hemis is increasing as the dastardly counterfeit or honest clone market increases (both are booming) and the number of buyers who like them are still only in their 50s and 60s, so they're survivors, too.
 
What's interesting to me is that this supply and demand equation doesn't need large numbers to operate.
 
e.g., there seems to be 100 Citroen DS cabriolets out there and 101 people who want them, so the price stays strong ($40,000 and up!!) even though it's an obscure car pursued by equally obscure collectors (they rarely own anything else). And yet, if a gaggle of these old cabriolets is found, say 3 or 4, then the market is "saturated" for a few months...it's that close in balance.
#39 of 588
Re: Options [Mr_Shiftright] by lemmer
Jul 18, 2006 (7:51 am)
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Replying to: Mr_Shiftright (Jul 18, 2006 6:45 am)

I wonder how far the value of a DS would drop if they had an international owners club meeting, and 50 of the owners were wiped out in a building fire but their cars were spared.
 
I can't find anyone my age (mid-late 30s) that would pay significantly more for an original Hemi than a '60s Camaro, Jag, Porsche, etc. I hope the current buyers plan on holding those cars for a long time.
#40 of 588
. by fintail
Jul 18, 2006 (8:53 am)
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I guess it all comes down to buying what you like, and don't expect to make a penny. There will always be a good amount of affordable fun old cars out there.

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