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What Will Be a Future Classic?

608 messages,  Last post on May 09, 2013 at 10:13 AM

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What is this discussion about? Future Vehicle, Coupe, Convertible, Sedan

Messages Page 1 of 61

#1 of 608 What Are Tomorrows Classics From Today's Market? by reallandyacht

Jul 09, 2006 (11:15 am)

Somewhere on the web I saw a topic which mentioned the the BMW M3 was tomorrows high dollar classic.
 
I have 2 questions for everyone.
 
#1 - Does anyone else concure that this is possible?
 
#2 - What else will make the grade?
 
Like the '57 Chevy convertible in mint shape is worth a nice 6 digit figure for a $3,000.00 (give or take) new priced car in it's hayday!

#2 of 608 Re: What Are Tomorrows Classics From Today's Market? [reallandyacht] by Mr_Shiftright HOST

Jul 09, 2006 (3:07 pm)

Replying to: reallandyacht (Jul 09, 2006 11:15 am)
BMW M3s have never been a high dollar collectible, so why would they suddenly become one? Makes no sense to me.
 
And six figures is not the going rate for '57 Chevy convertibles...dont' confuse real world prices with an occasional drunken bidding orgy on TV.
 
Having said that, perhaps a mint '57 Belair with Fuel Injection and restored to perfection might approach 100K, but it would have to be an exceptional car at an exceptional event on an exceptional day.
 
Real money for a restored one? Maybe $75,000 for a quality item. A clean driver? $40--50,000 is plenty.
 
But BMW M cars? Geez, they've always tanked in the collectible market as soon as they get old.
 
Maybe that's because a '57 Belair convertible looks so much better and glamorous than a '57 Chevy 4-door, but an M3 looks pretty much like any other of the gazillion BMWs on the road.

#3 of 608 Re: What Are Tomorrows Classics From Today's Market? [Mr_Shiftright] by reallandyacht

Jul 09, 2006 (7:06 pm)

Replying to: Mr_Shiftright (Jul 09, 2006 3:07 pm)
From what I recall - the logic was that is wasn't made for many years like a lot of other cars.
 
.... but that's why I am asking!
 
Trying to figure out what has a potential to be a future victim of insanity !
 
Looking to get an edge up on my 7-year old's college fund!

#4 of 608 . by fintail

Jul 09, 2006 (7:09 pm)

I think very few modern cars will become wild collectibles like the current muscle car fad. They are too complex and are doomed to fail sooner or later unless impeccably maintained. I'd buy something I can drive for fun and hope to break even when costs are considered. Even AMG and M cars etc hit a low value over time, and don't seem to budge. Modern cars are not an option.

#5 of 608 Re: . [fintail] by reallandyacht

Jul 09, 2006 (7:51 pm)

Replying to: fintail (Jul 09, 2006 7:09 pm)
but back in the late 70's I picked up a '68 GTO convertible with a slap stick for $400.00 and before that I had a '62 or there abouts Chevy Biscayne that I bought for $50.00 running. Also had a '70 AMC Javelin that was had for $300.00 in about '79.
 
The kids now a days are tricking out Mercury Merkur's, Subaru's, and those cars from J. A. Pan with computer chips and nitrous, and who knows what else.
 
Look at car shows this year! They accept up to 1984 - that is getting away from the old round head lights. I haven't seen any winning at the shows but they are starting to be entered.
 
It would be nice to figure where the trend is heading!

#6 of 608 Re: What Are Tomorrows Classics From Today's Market? [reallandyacht] by andre1969

Jul 09, 2006 (7:53 pm)

Replying to: reallandyacht (Jul 09, 2006 7:06 pm)
Looking to get an edge up on my 7-year old's college fund!
 
I'd say try stocks, mutual funds, or even CDs for investment value before you mess with old cars. To put it in perspective, my Mom took out a bunch of savings bonds for me starting in 1970 when I was born. She actually put them away somewhere ages ago and forgot about them. After all, savings bonds don't hit final maturity for 30 years, and 30 years is a long, long time. Or so it seems.
 
Suddenly, I was 33, and she found the things and gave them to me. I had 3 years worth of savings bonds to cash in at that point, and since then I've been cashing them in, a few at a time, as they hit the 30 year mark. On average, the typical $25 bond that she paid $18.75 for 30 years ago is now worth about $133. Or, a total return of about 709%. How many cars from 1976 are worth 7+ times their original purchase price today? Heck, how many cars from 1976 are even worth their original MSRP!
 
Even if you go back to a more "golden" era, such as 1957, once you factor in for inflation, how many cars would even be worth their original purchase price? According to an inflation calculator, $1.00 in 1957 is like $7.00 today. And that hypothetical 1957 fuelie Bel Air convertible, if decently equipped, was probably damn near $4000 back then. So figure that's like about $28,000 today. So if you could get $100K for one today, that's not even a 4x return on your investment. Then figure insurance for all those years. Repairs, maintenance, storage, etc. And if it wasn't maintained lovingly, figure that to get it to a value of $100,000, you might actually spend close to that in restoring it!
 
By and large, cars are not investments. The name of the game is usually seeing how little you lose, instead of how much you make.

#7 of 608 Re: . [reallandyacht] by andre1969

Jul 09, 2006 (8:09 pm)

Replying to: reallandyacht (Jul 09, 2006 7:51 pm)
Look at car shows this year! They accept up to 1984 - that is getting away from the old round head lights. I haven't seen any winning at the shows but they are starting to be entered.
 
That's just more of a fact that most car shows cut it off at 20 or 25 years, and many jurisdictions let you put historic tags on a car when it reaches 25 years of age. FWIW, I've put my '79 New Yorker in the Chrysler show at Carlisle for 5 years now. And in 2003 it actually won 3rd place in its class! However, that still doesn't change the fact that it's still just an old car that only I and maybe 5-6 others in the Western Hemisphere really have any appreciation for.
 
There's a big car show in Macungie, PA, where the car has to be 25 years old. Same for the car show in Hershey, PA in October. I'm putting my '76 LeMans in the Macungie show this year (if I'm not too late). Still, the reason that you now see Vegas, Chevettes, Pintos, 70's mastodons, etc at these shows doesn't mean that it's because they're suddenly ultra-valuable. It just means that they're finally 25+ years old!
 
Now, sometimes there are cars that do become very valuable as they age, and sometimes you can get really lucky. For example, around 1974-75 you probably couldn't give anything with a Hemi away. And if it was one of those winged Daytonas or Superbirds, it was actually common for the wing and the nose cone to get thrown in the dumpster and a conventional Satellite or Charger front-end fitted on, to make the thing more saleable! Yet today, I guess if you had a pristine, numbers-matching Hemi, you just might get $1 million for it.
 
I think it's going to be hard for modern cars to do that. First off, in the old days, it was almost always the hardtop coupes and convertibles that commanded a premium. Today the hardtop is pretty much history, and the few convertibles that are left are fairly high-quantity items like a Sebring or Mustang convertible. Cars today are so standardized and mass-produced that you just don't get that much uniqueness anymore. While they might have only made 13 or so 1971 Hemi Barracuda convertibles with a 4-speed, fast forward to today and something like 40% of all Chrysler 300's leave the door with a a Hemi. And an automatic transmission and 4-doors.
 
In many ways, I think cars have become a victim of their own success. Any modern Hemi would be much more comfortable and driveable than any old Hemi, but at the same time, it's just that much less unique, special, raw, dangerous, and exciting. Cars today may have improved, but it seems like they've sold their soul somehow.
 
I know I've made this analogy before, but it makes me think of that old Twilight Zone episode where Ellie Maye Clampett was considered ultra-ugly, and these pig-nosed people were the norm, and after a series of operations, they just couldn't make Ellie Maye Clampett look like a pig! In his epilogue, Rod Serling said something like "Without ugliness, there can be no beauty". And I think in many ways that applies to cars. These days, a V-6 Accord sedan with an automatic tranny could beat many 60's musclecars in the quarter mile, yet do it with niceties such as air conditioning, an automatic tranny, power everything, and so on. Nowadays, a slow car is one that does 0-60 in more than 10 seconds. Back in the 60's, you had many cars that would take damned near a half-minute to hit 60! So these days, a car that can do 0-60 in 6-7 seconds is really nothing special, but back in the 60's, it really was. Now that even the weak, mundane ones are much more competent, it kind of takes away from the stronger, more special ones. Because they're just not THAT much stronger, special, luxurious, etc.

#8 of 608 Re: . [andre1969] by Mr_Shiftright HOST

Jul 09, 2006 (9:34 pm)

Replying to: andre1969 (Jul 09, 2006 8:09 pm)
Rarity
Horsepower
Sensation with the public when new
smashing good looks
respected and admired
 
Those would be 5 MINIMAL requirements that modern cars would have to meet to have any top tier value in the future.
 
If you think of all the "hot" collectibles you're talkinga about, just about all of them would meet at least 4 out of the 5 categories.
 
Remember also that the public drives the market, not the other way round. The muscle car market is hot because baby boomers with money want them. They are the engine of the market. Too many buyers and too few special cars.
 
 I don't think the 20 somethings of today will be lusting for today's modern cars, because they can own them now, on credit or by having daddy buy them. And there are very very few cars produced today in very limited numbers, like the high dollar Hemis.
 
For a Hemi to be worth $1,000,000, just any old Hemi won't do. It would have to be 1 out of maybe 10 or 35 cars in existence. You don't see that today. A Hemi stuck in a Satellite coupe isn't going to sell for anything like that.
 
A '58 Corvette is valuable, but you can't hardly give away a '79 or '80 (no power, no respect). Yet an 86 (or was it '87?) Buick GNX brings big bucks (there's the rarity and power)
 
Even a 1996 Impala SS can bring decent money--the very rare case of a 4-door sedan being collectible. Why? It was rare, it was cool, it had some decent power, relative to all other American 4-doors of the time. Will it ever sell for big bucks? No, but it will always be of interest.
 

#9 of 608 So, it seems that ..... by reallandyacht

Jul 10, 2006 (4:58 am)

.... when my 7-year old hits my age (20 years old for the 28th time) and the baby boomer's are long gone there may be a serious reduction in Car Show content.
 
I can't envision the car show & auto nostalgia trend fading to much. It seems like it has to encounter some sort of transition into something that will retain an interest beyond the old school auto's.
____________________________________________________
 
andre1969 Savings Bonds?? NAW! That's boring!
Besides that; by having things that my son will have to work at selling will make him more appreciative to what things are really worth and give him some control in deciding what to keep and what to sell (for his kids).
He is already showing a great interest and aptitude in what is being done to improve his mental and educational development.
He is going to learn that even if it is JUST handed to him, it still won't be an easy walk in paradise.
 
We have collected a ton of unusual stuff for him and even some acreage.
Actually; if I were to sell off everything - I would be able to do a FULL & COMPLETE restore on my Coup De and still get another classic daily driver.
 
Taking a savings bond to a bank won't teach him much about valuing things in life - not that he doesn't already have some bonds (but 30 years isn't going to pay for college in 10 years - right?)...
 
He isn't going to be a trust fund baby that gets everything handed to him!
 
It's about that hand up not out!

#10 of 608 One thing I really wonder about... by andre1969

Jul 10, 2006 (5:52 am)

is what's going to happen to the really old cars, like Model A's and 30's and 40's cars and such. I imagine that something like a nice Duesenberg, Pierce Arrow, Auburn, etc will always be worth a small fortune, but as these older people who have the real old cars die out, what will happen to them?
 
Even with something like DeSotos, I let my membership with the DeSoto club of Maryland expire because I just didn't have much in common with most of the other members. I bought the thing when I was 20. I'd say that the three next youngest members were old enough to be my father, and most of the rest were so old they were practically swapping Civil War stories and tales of the Great Flood and that loon who built the big boat and rounded up all the animals!
 
I did notice at Carlisle this past weekend though, there was a pretty good turnout of DeSotos. Probably at least 15. I remember the first time I went to the Mopar show in 1997. There was only one DeSoto, as I recall, a blue 1959 Firesweep hardtop made to look like a convertible. It had been used in the movie "Mystery Date".
 
Now I can always see 50's cars, at least from about 1955 and onward, having some interest, just because they were so wild by today's standards. Tailfins, chrome, a vast array of colors and interior choices, and the dawn of performance. Your typical V-8 50's car, even a mild one, can still keep up with modern traffic. In contrast, many cars older than that just aren't that adept at coping with today's higher speeds.
 
And I'm sure that the musclecars, ponycars, and any convertible from the 60's onward will continue to hold interest. But I do wonder about the really old cars. They're nice as curiosities and museum pieces, but as their owners die off, I just can't imagine many of the future generations who don't remember them having much interest.

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