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The Inconvenient Truth About Ethanol

921 messages,  Last post on Oct 07, 2009 at 10:53 AM

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#838 of 921
Re: Year-2008 and Oil [yerth10] by gagrice
Jun 18, 2009 (7:42 pm)
Reply

Replying to: yerth10 (Jun 18, 2009 5:07 pm)

We dont need Qatar gas, it can be shipped to Japan & Korea where there are too many Oil-fired power plants.
 
It would be nice for Hawaii to get some Qatar LNG, as they produce most of their electricity with diesel generators. Qatar is also on the leading edge of GTL (gas to liquids). The diesel produced from natural gas is super clean and NO sulfur. Great fuel for all the diesel cars that are being sold.
#839 of 921
Re: Year-2008 and Oil [yerth10] by avalon02wh
Jun 19, 2009 (4:21 pm)
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Replying to: yerth10 (Jun 18, 2009 5:07 pm)

"BTW, US has become independent in natgas with the discovery of Shale-gas. "
 
At the present time we are importing natural gas (Canada & Mexico), so we are really not independent nor will we be anytime soon.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/natural_gas_mon- - thly/current/pdf/figure_01.pdf
 
Energy independence is a pipe dream. The only way the U.S. will be energy independent is if we cut our consumption by about 2/3.
 
"With nearly 10 million vehicles hitting the world's roads every year, its high time that Oil is replaced wherever possible. "
 
Actually I think the net increase in vehicles is higher than that. This site
http://www.serendipity.li/fe/car_fact_sheet.htm
suggests that the actual number is closer to 55 million new vehicles a year.
 
And as to replacing oil wherever possible, every fuel has issues be it ethanol, natural gas, diesel, hydrogen or cooking grease. I do not see any one fuel taking over 99% of the market. We are likely to have a broad range of fuels available for decades to come.
#840 of 921
Re: Year-2008 and Oil by yerth10
Jun 19, 2009 (8:15 pm)
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This website has got it wrong
http://www.serendipity.li/fe/car_fact_sheet.htm
 
70 million vehicles were sold every year. They mentioned that 15 million old vehicles were scrapped. In USA alone 14 million old vehicles were scrapped, if you include Europe, Japan and rest of the world the figure should be somewhere between 50-55 million old vehicles beind scrapped.
 
That means some 10-15 million new vehicles are sold.
 
gagrice : Yes, Qatar-gas can certainly go to Hawaii. Meanwhile Hawaii has 62 MW of wind energy, it can easily be increased and combined with natgas to replace the Diesel fired power generation.
Yes, no fuel will be able to take 99 % of the market. If Biofuels can capture 10 % with CNG another 10 %, atleast 20 % of the Oil consumption can be reduced.
#841 of 921
Re: Year-2008 and Oil [avalon02wh] by bpizzuti
Jun 20, 2009 (3:33 am)
Reply

Replying to: avalon02wh (Jun 19, 2009 4:21 pm)

And as to replacing oil wherever possible, every fuel has issues be it ethanol, natural gas, diesel, hydrogen or cooking grease. I do not see any one fuel taking over 99% of the market. We are likely to have a broad range of fuels available for decades to come.
 
Of course we will....to be honest, that's the natural order of things. The oil producers don't want that, of course, they want the current oil-universal-cureall status-quo that they helped manufacture instead, and it's gotten people used to the idea of one energy source having to make a big splash and replace oil in all ways. Hence all the hot air about ethanol as a new cure-all.
 
Real life isn't going to work that way. We'll see a lot more like the following instead:
 
Electric: Wind, Solar, Nuclear. Hydroelectric where water flow is available.
 
Heat: Geothermal (heat pump), natural gas, possibly direct solar. Biodiesel for the oil fired heaters until they can switch over to something else.
 
Transportation: Natural gas, biodiesel, possibly combined with some hybrid tech. Maybe some ethanol, but it's going to be regional because of the problems transporting E100.
 
Oh, and by the way:
 
At the present time we are importing natural gas (Canada & Mexico), so we are really not independent nor will we be anytime soon.
 
I'll settle for getting us independent of the regimes that hate us first, like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia (well, maybe not hate us but they don't really like us either), etc.
#842 of 921
Re: Year-2008 and Oil [yerth10] by avalon02wh
Jun 20, 2009 (5:18 am)
Reply

Replying to: yerth10 (Jun 19, 2009 8:15 pm)

I would agree that 55 million new vehicles a year is a bit high but only 10 to 15 new vehicles to the market is a bit low. If you just look at China, of their 10 million vehicles sold a year most are new to the market. If you add in India, Eastern European and the Middle East countries the total number of new cars to the market is probably 20 to 30 million depending on the years you look at.
 
"...motor vehicle ownership will increase from about 800 million vehicles today to more than 2 billion in 2030."
http://www.hart-isee.com/index.php?page=world-transport-growth
 
2,000 million - 800 million = 1,200 million
1,200 million/20 years = 60 million/year new to the market vehicles
 
The above is just an estimate. I do not think the world has the resources (ethanol,oil,steel,rare earth metals) to maintain more than 1.5 billion vehicles.
 
Vehicles are lasting longer. (Tables 3.9 & 3.10)
http://www-cta.ornl.gov/data/tedb27/Edition27_Full_Doc.pdf
#843 of 921
Ethanol the big hazard to transport. by gagrice
Jun 20, 2009 (6:16 am)
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(CNN) -- At least one person is dead after a cargo train derailment and fire in Rockford, Illinois on Friday, officials said.
 
Winnebago County Coroner Sue Fiduccia said the fatality was a woman. The cause of death had not been determined, because Fiduccia had not been able to get close enough to examine the body.
 
Fiduccia said she did not know whether there were other fatalities.
 
Crews were still fighting the blaze early Saturday from the derailment of the 114-car Canadian National Railway train.
 
Officers were called to the scene at around 8:30 p.m., a city police spokeswoman said. The derailment involved automobiles, but it was unclear whether they were on the tracks, the spokeswoman said.
 
Three motorists who were stopped at a train crossing were burned, one severely, said Rockford Fire Chief Derek Bergsten.

 
One victim who tried to run from the blaze suffered second-degree burns on his hand while trying to shield his neck from flames, Bergsten said.
 
Seventy cars on the train were carrying ethanol, a colorless, highly flammable liquid, fire officials said.
 
The derailment and subsequent fire forced the evacuation of about 600 nearby homes, authorities said.
 
We don't want your ethanol on the West Coast. Keep it in the Midwest. We have enough fire problems without trainloads of ethanol burning down our towns.
#844 of 921
Re: Ethanol the big hazard to transport. [gagrice] by bpizzuti
Jun 20, 2009 (7:43 am)
Reply

Replying to: gagrice (Jun 20, 2009 6:16 am)

That is one of the problems of transporting ethanol, yes. There is of course the slight risk of accident and fire. That's why oil and natural gas get pipelined. And no, you can't pipeline ethanol..something about the chemical makeup, it absorbs too much water or something. Then you have drunks with drills going after the pipes and all...
#845 of 921
Re: Ethanol the big hazard to transport. [gagrice] by pafromfl
Jun 20, 2009 (5:20 pm)
Reply

Replying to: gagrice (Jun 20, 2009 6:16 am)

At least one person is dead after a cargo train derailment and fire in Rockford, Illinois on Friday, officials said.
I wonder if the engineer was fueled by ethanol.
#846 of 921
Re: Ethanol the big hazard to transport. [bpizzuti] by avalon02wh
Jun 21, 2009 (7:43 am)
Reply

Replying to: bpizzuti (Jun 20, 2009 7:43 am)

" And no, you can't pipeline ethanol..something about the chemical makeup, it absorbs too much water or something. "
 
Yes, ethanol is very corrosive, however they are working on the issue.
 
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2009/03/16/u-s-ethanol-pipeline-idea-gets-push-from- -poet/
 
"Then you have drunks with drills going after the pipes and all..."
 
Really, do we have drunks running up to trucks carrying ethanol trying to get a swig????
#847 of 921
Re: Ethanol the big hazard to transport. [avalon02wh] by bpizzuti
Jun 21, 2009 (4:17 pm)
Reply

Replying to: avalon02wh (Jun 21, 2009 7:43 am)

Really, do we have drunks running up to trucks carrying ethanol trying to get a swig????
 
Leave them unattended and it's possible. Ethanol = 200 proof vodka, pure and simple (in more ways than one, heh). What happens when its cheaper per gallon than hard liquor?

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