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The Inconvenient Truth About Ethanol

921 messages,  Last post on Oct 07, 2009 at 10:53 AM

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#512 of 921
Re: Ethanol a history lesson..... [gagrice] by jkinzel
Jun 01, 2008 (10:17 am)
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 01, 2008 7:20 am)

Great History lesson Gary. Thanks
#513 of 921
$1.34/Gallon for Ethanol by avalon02wh
Jun 02, 2008 (3:08 pm)
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http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/verenium-commis.html
 
Good old Zymomonas mobilis may save the day.
 
I see that Canada has decided to dip their toe in the alcohol, so to speak, by requiring an E5 mix by 2010.
 
In 2004, Canada used 10.5 billion gallons of gasoline per year. The E5 mix will require about 500 million gallons of ethanol. In 2007 Canada produced 211 million gallons. Canada will need to build 5 to 6 new ethanol plants, if they are not already in the works.
 
Those extra 289 million gallons of ethanol will require about 100 million more bushels of corn. Canada already imports about 43 million bushels a year.
 
The ethanol needed in Canada pales when compared to the 4 billion gallons of U.S. ethanol production coming on line in 2008. Corn will be in high demand. Makes me glad I don't own any livestock that eats corn.
 
I wonder what happens in 2009 or beyond when there is a problem with corn production. Weather happens.
 
http://www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/statistics/
https://topcropmanager.annexweb.com/content/view/1481/67/
http://www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/outlook/
#514 of 921
Re: $1.34/Gallon for Ethanol [avalon02wh] by gagrice
Jun 02, 2008 (4:05 pm)
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Replying to: avalon02wh (Jun 02, 2008 3:08 pm)

I believe the Canadians are close to going into production with a biomass to ethanol plant. They were going to build their first one in Idaho. Not sure what has happened with their funding.
 
If Canada is hoping for a quick fix with Corn ethanol, they are in for a big surprise.
#515 of 921
Re: $1.34/Gallon for Ethanol [gagrice] by avalon02wh
Jun 03, 2008 (3:18 am)
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 02, 2008 4:05 pm)

Looks like the Idaho plant has moved.
 
Canadian company nixes Idaho for ethanol plant, picks Saskatchewan May 8, 2008
http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5jVhFVIjScxoTrAR8kwpFjTlEZrOg
 
"If Canada is hoping for a quick fix with Corn ethanol, they are in for a big surprise. "
 
The Canadian plants under construction are going to use corn, wheat and canola.
http://www.greenfuels.org/lists.php
 
I get a kick out of the spin they are putting on the whole fuels vs. food debate. The idea that you can divert 25% of the corn to fuel and claim it is not contributing very much to the increase in food is nonsense. There are several major drivers for the increased food costs; demand for food, transportation, increased inputs like fertilizer and biofuels.
 
If you go back a few years you will see that I was for a modest amount of ethanol production. The local jobs helped in many mid-western towns. They should have stopped the ethanol mandate at about 5 billion gallons (corn part), however.
 
I've actually stopped buying the E10 (89 octane) fuel. The 10 cent difference does not cover the 3% loss in fuel mileage. The car runs very well on 87. I need to compare my mpg with and without ethanol to see if I can tell what the actual difference is between E10 and plain RUG. So far it looks like it is at least 3%.
#516 of 921
Re: $1.34/Gallon for Ethanol [avalon02wh] by gagrice
Jun 03, 2008 (4:58 am)
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Replying to: avalon02wh (Jun 03, 2008 3:18 am)

I've actually stopped buying the E10 (89 octane) fuel.
 
I think in CA they put 10% ethanol in our regular 87. I know the times I have driven to AZ in both my 05 GMC PU and our Sequoia we would get better mileage with the gas over there that does not say ethanol added. We usually fill at the ARCO in Yuma, AZ. The last trip was in the Sequoia and the trip from home to Yuma we got 15 MPG over the 200 miles, much of it down hill into the desert. From Yuma to Phoenix we got just over 17 MPG driving mostly 75-80 MPH. It has to be the crap E10 gas in CA that kills mileage. That is about a 12% loss in mileage. Same results on the return trip.
#517 of 921
Re: $1.34/Gallon for Ethanol [avalon02wh] by gagrice
Jun 03, 2008 (5:09 am)
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Replying to: avalon02wh (Jun 03, 2008 3:18 am)

This kind of bothers me in respect to ethanol.
 
McDaniel said that without greater loan guarantees, Iogen and backers Royal Dutch Shell and Goldman Sachs weren't comfortable building in Idaho.
 
What risk will Shell and Sachs have if Canada is putting up the money to build the plant? Will Shell reap the benefits if it is a booming success? To my way of thinking if tax dollars are spent on these ethanol plants, the profits belong to the taxpayers. We did this in the late 1970s with corn ethanol. Our tax dollars guaranteed the investment in those ethanol stills. When the market went flat and 90 stills went out of business you and I were the ones that lost money. I consider that corporate welfare. I would love to have a multi million dollar business without investing my own money.
 
I do think the Iogen system shows promise and that using government funds would be good as long as they get repaid if the project is successful.
#518 of 921
Re: $1.34/Gallon for Ethanol [gagrice] by bpizzuti
Jun 03, 2008 (5:29 am)
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 03, 2008 5:09 am)

"Loan Guarantees" is a euphemism for subsidies. Remember Congress is looking at lowering subsidies for corn ethanol.
#519 of 921
Re: $1.34/Gallon for Ethanol [bpizzuti] by gagrice
Jun 03, 2008 (5:46 am)
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Replying to: bpizzuti (Jun 03, 2008 5:29 am)

I like to think of it as a government handout to the wealthy. If I loan you money to go into business and the government guarantees you will pay me back. When your business goes broke, who pays the bill? Yes the tax payer. I have not risked anything, you have not risked anything. Only the tax payer has taken any risk. And he has no recourse to say wait a minute that was my money you flushed down the ethanol toilet.
#520 of 921
Re: $1.34/Gallon for Ethanol [gagrice] by bpizzuti
Jun 03, 2008 (5:52 am)
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 03, 2008 5:46 am)

That's right, welcome to the brave new world of neo-capitalism, where the people must not only subsidize their own business ventures with no safety net, but also make sure those who can hire powerful lobbyists never lose their shirts on their business ventures.
 
Of course, the whole corn ethanol thing was corny to begin with. Laugh har har. I still think we should have just licensed Brazil's sugarcane technology..it's a better starting point. At least Hawaii would be able to grow it's own fuel.
#521 of 921
Re: $1.34/Gallon for Ethanol [bpizzuti] by gagrice
Jun 03, 2008 (6:14 am)
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Replying to: bpizzuti (Jun 03, 2008 5:52 am)

At least Hawaii would be able to grow it's own fuel
 
Sadly most of the sugar growers are gone from Hawaii. None left on the Big Island. A bit left on Maui. I think they are selling off the last of the cane land on Kauai. It seems that I read Oprah and Bette Midler are buying a lot of it.
 
If Congress were serious about ethanol replacing any of our fossil fuel they would lift the 53 cent tariff on Brazilian ethanol. The sooner if becomes a fair market commodity the sooner we will know if it is viable.

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