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330 messages, Last post on Nov 13, 2008 at 12:13 PM
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Replying to: larsb (Jun 11, 2008 1:57 pm) Yours: EV-1 Gasoline/Electric Hybrids PHEVs ? Fuel Cell? Mine: -High-efficieny ICE (lose the excess weight and power, max emissions controls) -Current hybrids, light cars only (max Camry sized, larger don't make $$ sense) -Turbo diesels for larger vehicles if a drop in relative fuel cost -PHEVs once batteries available -100% electric city cars using those batteries Right now, I don't see: -Fuel cells (no reasonable hydrogen source, better to use the electricity charging batteries) -Turbo diesel hybrids ($$ don't make sense) -NG vehicles (too much $$ for filling equipment, no major advantage over gasoline). |
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Replying to: larsb (Jun 11, 2008 2:58 pm) I don't think so. Toyota does not plan to sell their Plug-in Hybrid to you or I. Toyota Motor plans to produce lithium ion batteries next year for a plug-in hybrid vehicle available in 2010. The company on Wednesday said that the plug-in hybrid will be "geared toward fleet customers in Japan, (the) United States, and Europe." Could mean a few things. 1. They know they cannot make them price competitive with NiMH for the individual. 2. They do not want to warranty the batteries for 10 years. 3. They are not convinced they will not burn your house down while they are charging in the garage. For me, I will not live to be old enough to feel comfortable with any Lithium Ion hybrid in my garage.
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 11, 2008 5:32 pm) Neither Toyota nor GM nor Mitsu not Honda nor any other car maker is going to sell a lithium battery system which will catch fire in your garage. They just won't. It will be safety tested a thousand different directions before it's on the road. And the fact that 'Yota says "fleet customers FIRST" only means they are going to a little additional "real world testing" before launching it to the masses. You think for one second the driving public is going to tolerate seeing a 100 miles per gallon Prius driving down the road and not clamor to have one themselves? It would be a MARKETING DISASTER/NIGHTMARE for 'Yota to make those available and then not sell to the public. 'Yota ain't that stupid mi amigo.
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Replying to: larsb (Jun 12, 2008 5:03 am) Did you read point number two? If the cost of the battery has not diminished considerably, you may want a plug-in Prius, but cannot justify $50k that it costs. Just like GM is talking about LEASING the battery in the Volt. Toyota probably will have the same cost issues to deal with. It will be interesting and I am sure Toyota announcing the PHEV is to try and sway the buyers away from the Volt in favor of their own vehicle. It is just marketing vapor ware until you see the car on the dealers lot. Finding a battery company that will warranty a Li-Ion for 10 years will be a challenge also. The technology does not have a good longevity record. Another reason for leasing the batteries.
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 12, 2008 6:00 am) And the battery is not going to cost $50K Gary my gosh !! The company that does plug-in Prius conversions charges $10K for their smallest one, and you know they have a good solid profit margin in there. And that's batteries which they buy AT MOST in quantities probably of 10 at a time. Didn't you see all the recent news about 'Yota's new hybrid battery factories? They are going to use economy of scale to reduce those prices to reasonable amounts. They are going to build a huge number of batteries every year. Don't be such a cynic mi amigo - life is too short..........
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 11, 2008 1:02 pm) I thought the EV-1 used lead acid batteries?
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Replying to: stevedebi (Jun 12, 2008 3:42 pm) |
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Replying to: larsb (Jun 12, 2008 6:14 am) You need to do some more research on Lithium Ion batteries. Longevity is their Achilles heel. Not to mention catching on fire. I have not had a Li-Ion battery in a laptop last more than a 1.5 years. The same exact AA cells that are in the Tesla. They expect 6000 plus AA cells to keep on ticking for How long? Supposedly GM has a supplier that has overcome some of the runaway heat problems. Have not heard on longevity or shelf life. I would assume Toyota and Panasonic are addressing those issues. Cheapest actual conversion I find for the individual is $21,600. That will give you a low speed range of 15 miles battery only. You will get 100 MPG up to 30 miles on a full overnight charge. After 30 miles it drops back to normal Prius mileage. No one I can find will convert a Prius to Li-Ion PHEV for $10,000. They claim the batteries are that much or more. All the conversions I could find are limited to ONE YEAR warranty. Lots a money for so LITTLE gain. http://www.hybrids-plus.com/ht/products.html I am a cynic. I have seen too many WA claims with no results. You have talked about a 100 MPG Prius for 3 years. I have yet to see one being sold anywhere. That is a Prius with an EPA rating of 100 MPG combined. I'm waiting patiently. Just as I was waiting for a small diesel PU. They are both NA to the US market.
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 12, 2008 7:57 pm) That problem will be SOLVED in the PHEVs and EVs which use the technology !! GM and 'Yota will not put out a product that is likely to self-combust and KILL people or burn houses down !!! And you are still talking about prices. Did you not read my last post? 'Yota is going to have a battery FACTORY making ALL of them they need - the price will be driven WAY WAY down from the onesey-twosey prices that converters charge now !!! I personally have not talked about a 100 MPG Prius for three years. I know the existing Prius can do that. - not EPA, but on the road it has been shown multiple times to do that. What are those same techniques going to get on a PHEV Prius with an EPA rating of 70+ MPG? Probably over 200 MPG. That brings up a thought - is the EPA going to have to modify their test AGAIN to account for the extra mileage a PHEV will get like the Volt? I mean, they can't just run a "city" test on a short run, because the car will stay in electric mode the whole time. What will that show on the test? A Million Miles Per Gallon? Something creative will have to be done to that part of the test to account for the all-electric portion, right? |
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| Its probably importnt to also note that a lot of different battery companies are bringing a lot of different battery chemistries to market, they are not the same Lithium Ion that is in your laptop. | |
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