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418 messages, Last post on Sep 26, 2008 at 7:53 AM
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Replying to: 1stpik (Jul 16, 2008 1:14 pm) |
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Replying to: stevedebi (Jul 16, 2008 3:24 pm) I disagree about the illegality though. A company cannot be forced to jump into direct competition with another company. I doubt that there were specific statements such as 'you do this, I'll do that and you over there do this'. The appearance of this whether illegal or not is not good for those involved. I'll venture that a 'discussion' of the relative merits of one technology vs another would lead 'all the participants to come to the same conclusions'..... Honda's IMA is best suited to small cars the Toyota and Ford systems are suited best to midsizers none of the three are suited to big vehicles...but GM's 2-Mode is best suited to big vehicles. In addition.... Honda and Toyota would have a horrible time trying to 'export' their hybrid systems to the very nationalistic truck/SUV buyer but GM is perfectly placed to do just that; make hybrid converts of those who'd turn their backs on anything from Toyonda. As to profitability I'm absolutely certain that the Toyota's hybrids are profitable. The sales numbers are just TOO large now. Also a year ago May they voluntarily lowered prices $600 to $2000 on their prime seller. Remember the Prius is just a Matrix with... a battery pack two electric motors some additional wiring an inverter and converter NO transmission a simple planetary gearset. It sells for $3000 - $4000 more than the Matrix at a minimum. Honda OTOH I'm sure makes a profitable HCH because the IMA is so simple and elegant and inexpensive. They too are reaching large volumes. |
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Replying to: stevedebi (Jul 16, 2008 3:24 pm) On this point I'm of the opinion that this 'understanding' came about because the initial promoters of the technology were not at all sure how well it would succeed. With three of them in it the goals were very modest. When the Gen2 Prius arrived in 2003 the entire estimate for 2004 was 35000 units....these were sold in 60 days. In today's auto business making a large jump in the sales volumes and production volumes of a modern vehicle needs at least 6 months. There was little incentive for Toyota to fight Honda or Ford in the beginning. And as you said supply limitations in components certainly limited their interest in butting heads. But my opinion is that there was an understanding not to intrude on the other and to grow each's segment as much as possible for some period of time, say 10 years up until 2011 or so. After that all bets are off and it's every maker for itself. Thus we now see Honda and Toyota and Ford and GM all ready with multiple hybrids in the wings. Like the Okie Sooner rush.
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Replying to: kdhspyder (Jul 16, 2008 4:09 pm) Honda and Toyota are sooner. Ford is later. GM may be too late.
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Replying to: 1stpik (Jul 16, 2008 7:13 pm) Ford is preparing a hybrid Fusion, for next year. |
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Replying to: kdhspyder (Jul 16, 2008 3:57 pm) If companies conspire together so as to limit the availability of a product, that is racketeering, and illegal here in the US. There doesn't have to be a formal agreement, only proof that they conspired to limit the market, thus allowing them to keep their prices higher due to artificially inflated demand. So if you have any proof, feel free to post ... the Feds are watching! But your argument would mean that the auto manufacturers want to sell LESS cars. I think that all the car makers want, and have always wanted, to sell MORE vehicles.
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Replying to: kdhspyder (Jul 16, 2008 3:57 pm) Honda's IMA is best suited to small cars the Toyota and Ford systems are suited best to midsizers none of the three are suited to big vehicles...but GM's 2-Mode is best suited to big vehicles. " I don't think the GM hybrid is any better than Ford or Toyota. It doesn't improve the MPG of a large vehicle that much. Ford considered a hybrid Explorer four years ago, and decided that they could get the same MPG improvement with a 6 speed transmission. I assume they compared that 6 speed with a hybrid/CVT.
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Replying to: stevedebi (Jul 16, 2008 8:06 pm) But again your point about conspiring to limit availability is the key point. NONE of the players in my scenario is limiting anything they are until now fully producing as much as they can each in their chosen segment. That's good business. My original point is that the hybrid market was NOT unlimited. In fact at the beginning it was miniscule and potentially a deadend. There was no assurance that the public would accept this technology. It would certainly not accept it across the board from one or two import brands. To develop widespread acceptance in various sizes and utilizations it needed more than two horses pulling the wagon and at least one or two of the horses had to be a domestic brand. However NOW in general the public is open to considering a hybrid vehicle so IMO we will be seeing vehicle makers expanding outside their 'chosen' segment. Fusion/Milan hybrids Edge hybrid Aura/Malibu hybrids lambda hybrids from GM "x" small crossover hybrid from Toyota small Prius sedan hybrid. The first? Honda seems to be bringing out its own Prius but that vehicle is still in 'Honda's segment'. Immitation is the sincerest form of flattery so Honda is in one way staying in line but also poking a stick in Toyota's eye. This 'baby Prius' is likely to be a killer in that it has the look of the Prius, with better-than-Prius FE and a much much lower price. It's a great move on Honda's part IMO. It maintains the 'order' and potentially it grows their business significantly. We probably will see a small Prius sedan announced soon which will go after the HCH. It too will likely be in the 60-70 mpg range. |
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Replying to: stevedebi (Jul 16, 2008 8:09 pm) Ford considered a hybrid Explorer four years ago, and decided that they could get the same MPG improvement with a 6 speed transmission. I assume they compared that 6 speed with a hybrid/CVT. Au contraire. The 2-Mode is significantly better than the Toyota and Ford systems simply because these two can't be used in heavy vehicles. They are not strong enough. They might be able to power a BOF SUV somewhat but the motors would burn out if anything heavy was being carried or towed. Toyota has admitted as much themselves. The HSD, and presumably the Ford hybrid system, are not scalable upward to BOFs to be capable to do things that BOFs do. To your second point the 2-Mode is every bit as capable in terms saving fuel as are any of the other three. In fact the GM system saves MORE fuel in switching from a non-hybrid Tahoe to a T2M than one does in switching from a non-hybrid I4 Camry to a TCH. Ditto between a non-hybrid I4 Escape to an FEH. Tah FWD.....14 / 20 / 16, uses 62.5 gal / 1000 mi driven T2M FWD.... 21 / 22 / 21, uses 47.6 gal / 1000 mi driven - saves ~20 gal Camry........ 21 / 31 / 25, uses 40 gal / 1000 mi driven TCH........... 33 / 34 / 34, uses 29.4 gal / 1000 mi driven - saves about 10.5 gal Escape..... 20 / 26 / 22, uses 45.5 gal / 1000 mi driven FEH......... 34 / 30 / 32, uses 31.3 gal / 1000 mi driven - saves 14+ gal For our nation it 's much more important to address the fuel economy of SUVs before anything else. If the BOFs were required to use hybrid technology and/or diesel technology it would save much much more fuel for the nation than getting a Civic driver to switch into a Prius. This of course made sense under the previous scenario of moderate fuel prices slowly increasing. However the market appears to be intervening, imposing its will on us, by essentially killing off the BOF SUV segment.
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Replying to: kdhspyder (Jul 17, 2008 7:31 am) Correct, but, like you said, now many are also waking up to the fact that the BOF market is evaporating. The 'real' market, those that need BOF SUVs for towing, etc, may not have a lot of interest in hybrids. |
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