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#283 of 418 Re: Unfortunately.... [kdhspyder]
May 16, 2008 (9:09 pm)
This is simple actually if the right tools are used. A spreadsheet is good but pencil works fine too.
Two 4c 5-door hatchbacks from Toyota
2008 Prius package #2 priced at $24000
2009 Matrix base with Stability Ctl priced at $20500
case 1..13000 mpy
case 2.. 20000 mpy
Length of ownership:
Case A .. 4 yrs
Case B .. 10 yrs
Resale values ( from Edmunds )
Case A 4 yrs .. 50% of MSRP
Case B 10 yrs = $1000 flat.
Cost of fuel: ( $.50 increase per gallon per year )
2008 .. $3.25
2010 .. $4.25
2012 .. $5.25 ---> the 4 yr average is $4.25 / gal
2014 .. $6.25
2016 .. $7.25
2018 .. $8.25 ---> the 10 yr average is $5.75 / gal
Fuel economy figures: 2008 / 09 EPA values
Prius 46 mpg Combined
Matrix 27 mpg Combined
The equation: Cost of purchase and fuel usage
( MSRP - Resale= Net Veh Cost ) + ( Ann Miles * Length of ownership = Tot Mi Driven ) * ( Avg cost of fuel ) / ( Avg Fuel Economy )
Case 1A: 4 yrs 13000 mpy
Prius ( $24000-$12000 ) + ( 13000 * 4 * 4.25 ) / 46 = $12000 + 4805 = $16,805
Matrix ( $20500-$10250 ) + ( 13000 * 4 * 4.25 ) / 27 = $10250 + 8185 = $18,435
Case 1B: 4 yrs 20000 mpy
Prius ( $24000-$12000 ) + ( 20000 * 4 * 4.25 ) / 46 = $12000 + 7390 = $19,390
Matrix ( $20500-$10250 ) + ( 20000 * 4 * 4.25 ) / 27 = $10250 + 12590 = $22,840
Case 2A: 10 yrs 13000 mpy
Prius ( $24000-$1000 ) + ( 13000 * 10 * 5.75 ) / 46 = $23000 + 16250 = $39,250
Matrix ( $20500-$1000 ) + ( 13000 * 10 * 5.75 ) / 27 = $19500 + 27685 = $47,185
Case 2B: 10 yrs 20000 mpy
Prius ( $24000-$1000 ) + ( 20000 * 10 * 5.75 ) / 46 = $23000 + 25000 = $48,000
Matrix ( $20500-$1000 ) + ( 20000 * 10 * 5.75 ) / 27 = $19500 + 42600 = $62,100
That's 4 separate cases. Every one favors the Prius over the 2009 Matrix, it's natural companion for comparison purposes. The trends are obvious. In the short term the two vehicles are approximately equal in cost. As the miles increase and the vehicles are kept for longer periods of time the numbers are far in favor of the Prius.
Factors like opportunity costs of money not spent and financing will reduce these differences. Other factors like taxes, insurance, maintenance, and repairs are approximately equal according to Edmunds TCOs. Local incentives may swing the decision solidly in favor of the Prius...or any of the other hybrids.
BTW there is a reason that the Prius is the single hottest vehicle in the US, now that fuel is jumping up towards $4.00 per gallon everywhere. The US public knows that these figures make sense personally. If they are looking for a mid-$20K vehicle then the Prius is money in their pocket.
If they are looking to minimize total transportation costs then a bicycle is the best choice as a purchase.
#284 of 418 Re: Unfortunately.... [kdhspyder]
May 17, 2008 (6:03 am)
Your gas prices are totally hypothetical with no basis in reality. You like to quote the oil men. Well look back at some of their quotes from 1980 when oil was over $30 per barrel. If you had said it would be a steady rise back then as you do now you would have been totally wrong, as were the doomsayers back then.
Basing the payback on a hybrid with gas prices that are not likely, makes all your calculations shaky at best. See $4 per gallon gas
#285 of 418 Re: Unfortunately.... [gagrice]
May 17, 2008 (12:05 pm)
No 'basis in reality'? C'mon. Since the early part of the decade this $.50 / gal increase is exactly what the reality has been. Since 1-1-2001 the price of gas has gone from about $1.25 to $3.50. Now what were we saying about reality?
I agree though that gas prices are very likely to fluctuate but I'm certain that they will increase at least this amount if not more. I'm personally betting on this in my own daily life. IMO, thus far borne out by the last 6 yrs, not to plan for such increases is to hide under the covers against the oil boogeyman. I prefer to face it and deal with it.
Precisely see the $4/gallon gas thread. All the signs point to oil and fuel prices doubling over the next 10 yrs....minimum.
#286 of 418 Re: Unfortunately.... [kdhspyder]
May 17, 2008 (3:26 pm)
All the signs point to oil and fuel prices doubling over the next 10 yrs....minimum.
I would say many of the opinions point to higher prices. I just don't think they have good sound information backing the opinions. Buying a hybrid as a hedge against possible future gas hikes would probably be good for someone that puts a lot of miles on a car. Then I have always said that. Those of us that want to keep a car for 20 years and under 100k miles would not be the targeted audience for a hybrid.
#287 of 418 Re: Unfortunately.... [gagrice]
May 17, 2008 (8:11 pm)
Agreed, as always.
#288 of 418 My experience
May 19, 2008 (11:53 am)
I have driven my prius for 5.5 years and 98,000 miles. I have never had a mechanical or electrical maintenance issue with the car (but have replaced tires twice). Day to day operating and cost of maintenance to date it is the lowest I have ever had (only used American cars before the Prius).
When I was looking at hybrids as an early adopter the cost of the replacement battery spooked me, so I planned to trade it in before the battery warranty expired (8 yrs/98000 miles). I think it would be fair to compare the Prius up to that point with any other car with similar powertrain warranty. Now that I am used to and comfortable with my Prius I don't intend to turn it in anytime soon.
As to gas prices and the side by side comparison, I think kdhspyder did a great job above. Even if you disagree with the numbers, the trend will still bear out. That is to say into the future gas prices will rise, the more they rise the more economical a car with higher mileage becomes, that is all.
I think the more pertinent discussion would be with plug in hybrids coming in the next two years, and anticipating not only rising gas prices but actual fuel shortages. How much more valuable will a PHEV be than a conventional when the conventional can't be fueled at all?
#289 of 418 Re: Unfortunately.... [kdhspyder]
May 19, 2008 (1:21 pm)
A few things t consider:
Nice trick, btw, in comparing the Prius' mileage to the Matrix's lowest (city) mileage. That one almost got by us. The Corolla gets 27/35 with the 1.8L engine. this is lot closer to the Prius, which is rated at 48/45. Please recalculate with 31mpg for the 1.8L engine.
1: Any smart person buys the Vibe and gets GM's financing or their 1-3K rebates(dep on time of year, ~2K is common). This makes the short and middle-term comparisons very nearly even, other than a couple of things: Insurance, interest, registration, and so on - all are marginally higher for the Prius. This adds up every year, bit by bit.
2:The long term scenarios don't include a replacement battery pack or the fact that a ten year old Prius will sell for NADA minus the cost of a new battery pack. This is the same as buying a car with 100K on the original automatic transmission. Please deduct the price of a new one when it comes to actually getting it sold, because no buyer will offer you anything else. That battery pack is a huge minus. It's a very close comparison between the two. Well, sort of...
3: The real problem is that you should compare base models with automatic. The typical person who is interested in truly saving money will buy one with as few options as possible and add a better after market radio and so on themselves. Only faker Yuppies will load out a Prius to 25K+.
I get a 2008 Vibe 1.6L with automatic selling for 18,706 from Cars Direct(including delivery charge). This is a base model with automatic, power windows and entry, and A/C. $1250 cash back right now. $17,456 net cost.
I get a Prius in base trim for 21,760 from Cars Direct
Case 2B: 10 yrs 20000 mpy
Prius ( $21700+300 ) + ( 20000 * 10 * 5.75 ) / 46 = $22,000 + 25000 = $49,300
Vibe ( $17500-$3000 ) + ( 20000 * 10 * 5.75 ) / 31 = $14,500 + 37,096 = $51,600
Actually, you'd sell such a Prius for $0/pay to have it towed away most likely(the $300) - it would hit the end of the warranty and drop instantly $6500 in value(cost of a replacement battery pack). The Corolla at ten years old is actually worth about $3K. 49,300 vs 51,600. $2300 difference. That's $230 a year you are "saving" with the Prius. But add in those hidden costs because the Prius is a more expensive loan and extra tax, registration, insurance, and so on and it's a complete wash.
In effect, it never pays for itself relative to a standard economy type car.
Now, compare a VW TDI:(for fun)
Jetta TDI ( $23,000-$5000(better resale value)) + ( 20000 * 10 * 6.325(Diesel is about 10% more to buy) / 45 = $18,000 + 28,110(!) = $46,110. There's a reason people in Europe run TDIs
#290 of 418 Re: Unfortunately.... [plekto]
May 19, 2008 (2:21 pm)
No you misread again and again you misunderstood that the Corolla Matrix is a 5 door hatch like the Prius is a 5-door hatch.
The EPA numbers for the Matrix are.. 25C / 31H / 27 Combined
The EPA numbers for the Prius are.... 48C / 45H / 46 Combined
No tricks here that's what they are. You were mistakenly comparing the Corolla sedan to the Prius. You have to use the Matrix/Vibe numbers.
Your point 1.) is very subjective because while the Vibe and Matix are the same vehicle there are buyers that will not buy a GM product under any circumstance just as there are GM buyers that will never set foot in a Toyota store. But I agree if GM is giving away it's Vibes then it may be more economical to buy the less expensive vehicle. Then again it may not be ( see below )
Your point 2.) is just speculation and it's false as indicated by the actual auction values on the original Prius which are now just reaching the limits of the hybrid warranty at 8 yrs ( there are still 2 more years for the CARB states ). There is in fact no discount for the older Prius'. They still carry a $500-$1000 premium over a similar vehicle ... In today's Black Book values, both vehicles with 105,000 - 110,000 mi...
2001 Gen 1 Prius = $3900
2001 Corolla LE = $3150
those are the numbers right now today if two buyers were to trade today.
Your point 3.) again is pure speculation on your part based on your own biases and preferences. What if your view of the typical buyer is different than someone else's. This is a HUGE market with widely differing incomes and tastes and requirements. You can't just put everybody into one little 'basic' box. Toyota has recognized this and frankly is wildly successful in finding these significant niches. Your view of the buyers is biased and too limited to be of any true value. In fact you have no clue as to who is really buying these.
Forget the Jetta TDI... the new one is going to be killed, maimed and left bleeding on the side of the road as all the rest of the new hybrids pass it by. First it's a VW and it's got two strikes against it before anyone even looks at the fuel prices. Bad timing about that debut this year, sorry 'bout that VW.
Your modified case two is tainted by two errors...
If you want to do a Cars Direct comparo on the two base trims that's OK and the
$21700 and $17500 buys are reasonable. However you keep coming up wrong values on the resales ( see above ) and you keep using the wrong fuel economy numbers ( see above ). You've got to do it right or it's too easy to pick apart your argument. Here I'll do it right for you.
A 10 yr old Corolla ( there was no Matrix/Vibe back then ) base model is 'worth' $1000 today at auction according to the Black Book. An 8 yr old Prius is 'worth' $3900 at auction today. That's as far back as the book goes. Let's say a 10 yr old base Prius is also 'worth' $1000 at auction.
Cost of Vehicle Depreciation:
Prius ..$21700 - $1000 = $20700 plus fuel cost
Vibe ...$17500 - $1000 = $16500 plus fuel cost
Fuel Cost using EPA fuel economy numbers, right off the site.
Prius 48 / 45 / 46 combined
Vibe 25 / 31 / 27 combined
(20000 * 10 * 5.75) / 46 = $25000 fuel cost
(20000 * 10 * 5.75) / 27 = $42600 fuel cost
Total Vehicle Depreciation + Fuel cost
Prius = $20700 + $25000 = $45700
Vibe = $16500 + 42600 = $58600........that's $13000 more than the Prius
This assumes that both are next to worthless at 10 yrs and 200,000 miles. The Vibe owner will spend that much more than the Prius owner over the course of ownership. Those are the numbers there's no way to get around them for this given case.
Now if fuel somehow drops back to $1.95 for the better part of 10 yrs or the driver only drives 5000 miles a year the equation changes greatly.
#291 of 418 Not for the reason you think...........
May 19, 2008 (2:22 pm)
plekto says, "There's a reason people in Europe run TDIs "
You are correct sir. And that reason is the lower taxes on diesel fuel. That is what caused Europe to become a diesel vehicle haven.
Take away the artificially reduced diesel fuel costs in Europe and the situation would have never developed.
#292 of 418 Re: Not for the reason you think........... [larsb]
May 19, 2008 (5:15 pm)
Take away the artificially reduced diesel fuel costs in Europe
That is not true in all countries. You are leaving out the main reason that people buy diesels in the EU. They get 30% to 50% better mileage than the gas version of the same car. Diesel in the UK is higher than UG. Yet they still sell more diesels than gassers. They can hardly give a hybrid away over there because they are not good handling cars at high speed. That is a big issue with most Europeans. We will settle for a squishy ride and fast 0-60 times. Or in the case of the hybrids just a squishy ride.