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Hybrid Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles - Archived Discussions Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow? 
2104 messages, Last post on Oct 27, 2006 at 5:34 AM
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Replying to: heel2toe (Jun 17, 2006 11:13 pm) So, let's say that the use of diesel cars in the US triples from its current level. That would mean that 91% of cars would be running on something other than diesel. Is this 9% market share for diesel the revolution that you are talking about? Or do you know something that the industry experts don't which is going to achieve this massive breakthrough that you believe is going to happen? I don't see anyone but for a few diesel diehards who are making these lofty predictions. Obviously, the automakers don't see it, either.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 18, 2006 1:32 am) I think they do. Honda for example is working very hard to bring diesel to the USA. It is the only option that has gotten them accepted in the EU. They are not so blind, that they cannot see that 38% of the Jetta sales are diesel. VW USA sales are up and Honda and Toyota car sales are flat. Honda has not had great luck with hybrids. Even though Honda IMA is probably better for the long haul. The bottom line is whether you or the American driver accepts diesel or not, it is still the best fuel for conserving the world oil supply. Ethanol still requires massive amounts of fossil fuel to grow and process. The experts I find most knowledgeable say it is a negative gain of ethanol to fossil fuel used. The ethanol industry cannot keep up with the demand for ethanol as a replacement for MTBE. How would they jump up to producing enough corn for E20 or E85? Maybe the boat owners will file a class action suit against ADM & Verasun taking away all the fat profit they are making. Too bad they cannot sue Congressmen that vote for all the stupid mandates. Recently the Boat Owners Association of the United States issued a warning to owners of older, expensive boats, after numerous members reported ruined engines with “black gunk sludging their intake valves.” The culprit is E10 gasoline, the same thing we are now using in the Metroplex; it’s melting away parts of their fiberglass fuel tanks — and the resulting gunk is clogging their fuel filters and fuel lines and ultimately destroying some very expensive motors. That’s when it occurred to me: a whole lot of gas stations have fiberglass storage tanks.
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 18, 2006 5:58 am) Ethanol is a natural cleanser. It will indeed dislodge junk that had already built up from from using dirty gas in the past. Once you get past that transission, the fuel lines remain clean... since the ethanol itself doesn't contain any sludge causing materials. It's just an alcohol. We've proven that here in Minnesota; every single gas vehicle has been using E10 since the 90's. JOHN |
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Replying to: heel2toe (Jun 17, 2006 11:13 pm) Tell that to the guy hear that has been arguing that increased complexity is a very bad thing. Then tell us where the real-world data is. Let's see actual numbers. JOHN
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Replying to: john1701a (Jun 18, 2006 6:22 am) I thought you kept up on this stuff. DSG is smaller and less complex than a conventional auto transmission. Much less complex than the HSD system Toyota designed for their throwaway hybrids. DSG transmissions, the development of which has spearheaded by Volkswagen, are cheaper to produce and offer the driver a choice between an automatic mode or a more engaging clutchless shifting mode. DSGs are also lighter and fit easily into spaces engineered for a common manual transmission. I would imagine the DSG in conjunction with the diesel engine is the reason that the Jetta is out selling the Prius this year. The Jetta, a wonderful Drivers car. With the TDI DSG options you get an honest 49 MPG. All that and a comparably equipped Prius is about $2000 more than the Jetta TDI with DSG. Oh that includes the most important option in the Jetta, XM sat radio. The Jetta does not need a back up camera, you can see out the back. Oh and did I forget to add Volkswagen is the world leader in Ethanol cars for those that want less efficiency.
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 18, 2006 7:15 am) Wolfgang Bernard stated pretty recently that VW plans to use DSG as its only automatic within the next several years, which should give the brand a very appealing selling point to US consumers. I don't know about the DSG technology being available to other auto manufacturers yet, but more widespread adoption definitely affects the suitability of low HP diesels to markets that greatly prefer automatics like the US. |
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 18, 2006 7:15 am) Again, where is the real-world data? JOHN
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Gagrice, you've argued throughout the thread that ethanol is bad because ADM is involved in it. Yet here's an article showing that ADM is developing two biodiesel plants in the US. And apparently, ADM is the largest producer of biodiesel in Germany. Since we are apparently supposed to make our policy decisions based upon whatever doesn't work for ADM, I guess biodiesel is going to have go, to. After all, if ADM is going to profit from the vegetable oil that goes into producing biodiesel, why would I want to have anything to do with it? |
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 17, 2006 7:58 pm) Ethanol and E85 are being rolled out big time and any significant or rational arguments against ethanol have disappeared into the background noise and clutter of obstructionists and the inane arguments of a handful of irrational proponents who want to see American democracy fall and the opec cartel dictators win at any price. There is no price differential to buy an FFV or regular auto or pickup, so no decision has to be made. All autos/pickup trucks could be 100% FFV ready ASAP if necessary...they already are E10 ready! Ethanol has been selected (for better or worst) as one of our major tools to slow down or limit sharply our dependence upon foreign oil. ANWR and the gulf coast will ease those dependencies, new refineries, wind farms, natural gas exploration, nuclear energy and increased coal production will ease us into the next couple of decades. Lobbyists collecting millions from the obstructionists can block oil drilling, refineries, wind farms, and nuclear energy, but they CANNOT block Ethanol and, to some extent, Biodiesel raw supply from our American farmers or building Ethanol/Biodiesel manufacturing plant production...our American farmers hold the trump card on that one...that is why we sometimes hear such hysterical arguments as "...our pigs will suffer" (chuckle)" arguments. There will not be only one or two solutions in renewable fuels, but many, varying probably from state to state depending upon the state's location, its natural resources, and whether the state wants to join in the national plan. 911 did happen, terrorism in the USA did happen (18 of 23 911 terrorists were from Saudi Arabia.) These anti-American oil cartel blackmailers from th middle east and south america only cause us to create increase our resolve to have American controlled renewable fuels to drive our national goals of alternate fuels. Fuels that right now are available for autos we are now driving and/or manufacturing, and eventually solutions for the 2nd quarter of the 21st Century and beyond.
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. . .I seem to have lost the reason that we don't embrace diesels (which certainly seems accurate) here. It is simplistic, but -- go into the local "auto mall" and try to find a diesel passenger car. Even going into the German dealerships (which elsewhere have many gas and diesel engined version from which to choose) generally turns up at most two cars from which to choose. As a an English (only) speaking person, I got on the UK configurators for Audi/VW, BMW and Mercedes -- wow. There are plenty of diesel engined cars currently manufactured and sold. Certifying them for the American market has been (according to the Washington DC based Diesel Technology Forum) difficult due to regulatory roadblocks. These roadblocks appear to be largely due to the fact that our diesel fuel is "dirty" compared to the diesel fuel offered "over there." Yet, just this month, clean diesel starting pumping here in Vaspucciland. Audi/VW and Mercedes have announced plans to increase the number of models of current cars imported here with diesels. These will be conventional looking models that are already selling well here in America. This importation of many diesel powered models, in and of itself, is NOT a sure thing for sales. However, with gasoline unlikely to remain as cheap as it is currently (in the long run, despite temporary price drops) and with the performance gains that can be attributed to diesel, well one would think there is at least a chance that diesel will spread in popularity. Recall not THAT long ago the introduction of Front Wheel Drive and mainstream adoption of turbo charging. As I recall FWD and forced induction were in response to "gas lines" in that FWD cars could be "packaged" in such a fashion as to be both less expensive to build and less expensive to fuel. Moreover, taking a relatively small displacement engine (normally aspriated) and attaching a passive blower (a turbocharger) to it almost gave the consumer a 6 cylinder's performance from a 4 cylinder and an 8 cylinder's performance from a 6. Of course, the high output 4 used MORE gas than a lower output 4, but still less than the 6 is was able to imitate. We went through a period of time where we had mostly RWD normally aspirated gas sucking cars to where we "all" drove FWD turbo charged less gas sucking cars. Indeed there was a period of time (years and years) where finding a RWD [American] car was very difficult (even from Cadillac.) When the Germans and the Japanese in mass form came to our shores, they too brought FWD, small displacement (and some turbo utilization) too. Qwazy Wabbit (as in VW Rabbit) comes to mind. Now, there is no way on this forum for me to correlate the switch from heavy RWD V8 powered cars to lighter FWD small engined cars that happened significantly starting in the 80's with a switch from gas to diesel. Indeed, I find it difficult to imagine that we can go from 0.26% light diesel penetration to 33.3% penetration (thereby eliminating our need for 1.4 million bbl of Middle-Eastern oil per day -- which is, practically speaking all of our imports from that region) despite the cost savings, performance gains, cleaner air and political/social desirability. I actually wonder if it would be possible to go from UNDER 1% to 5%, let alone 9% as has been discussed above by others. It doesn't change the desirability of the goal, however. It doesn't change the fact that Adam Smith's invisible hand has been given some impetus to move by our very own Congress in the Energy Act of 2005 (specifically pertaining to diesels, in fact.) It did seem that overnight (well not literally of course) we were able to change from cars that used leaded gas to undleaded, were heavy RWD V8's to lighter FWD non-V8's. Therefore I am encouraged to be optimistic that the adoption of diesel may surprise many of us to the positive. It didn't take an act of Congress to get us -- almost ALL of us -- to start driving FWD turbo charged cars. It may only take the trickle down effect of offering almost literally every Audi/VW, BMW and Mercedes model on the market today in both diesel and gasoline variants. This trickle down, using Europe as an example and coupled with the Energy Act of 2005 could demonstrate a possibility, remote as it may be, of having over 50% of our lux class cars sold as diesel and trickling down to over 20% of all cars. It is, for now, difficult to imagine and cope with the breadth and depth of change that would be required to make this happen. But it has happened elsewhere and it could have a huge positive impact on all of us. Finally, while I don't want to only report the good news, so to speak, I do think it would be helpful to get the story out about both E85 and diesel (both petrol and non petrol diesel.) This blog and many others may do for diesel what was done for Howard Dean (I know, I know, loose him the election) -- and by that I mean, raise awareness, raise money and get it (diesel, not Dean) noticed. Diesel suffers from decades of a bad reputation -- but that can be turned quicker than we think, if history and this wonderful tool (the Internet) are any guide. 
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