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Hybrid Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles - Archived Discussions Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow? 
2104 messages, Last post on Oct 27, 2006 at 5:34 AM
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Replying to: heel2toe (Jun 17, 2006 5:17 pm) It obviously hasn't been compelling to 97% of the American driving public. Diesels have always had these advantages, but it hasn't helped sales. You can call it "silly", but none of you have shared with us your great plan for getting Americans to change their habits. Had we had the internet during the seventies, I'm sure that we would have identical arguments on behalf of diesel, but those proved to be wrong, too. If the automakers agreed with you, they'd be doing a full push to put millions of diesels onto sales lots. At this point, they are treading forward very slowly, which tells you that they have a wait-and-see attitude about this mature technology with an image problem.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 17, 2006 6:03 pm) They've been taking a wait-and-see attitude for years now. Perhaps that's why both Ford and GM and so close to the precipice now. They will wait-and-see themselves straight into the abyss. Sometimes "wait-and-see" is just a euphemism for "ineptitude". |
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 17, 2006 6:03 pm) That is the grim reality diesel supporters are very much in denial about. Even the domestic automakers aren't that stubborn. They recognize that lack of willingness to change... which is a strong reason for pushing ethanol. The switch to diesel won't gain the typical American driver all that much since the ones with automatic transmissions (which this population undeniably prefers) don't offer than big of a MPG gain, especially when dealing with daily stop & slow commute traffic. In fact, the benefit is pitiful compared to what a Prius using E10 (10% ethanol) delivers already. And the next generation is promising to deliver even higher efficiency. I've pushed them on many occasions, asking what the heck they intend to do to draw new interest for diesel. The response was the tranquil sound of crickets in a lonely field on a summer evening. In other words, nothing! They have no plan. JOHN
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Replying to: john1701a (Jun 17, 2006 7:43 pm) You act like we have any say in what gets past the EPA. It takes on average a couple years to get any new design past the EPA and NHTSA. As was pointed out in an earlier post, mileage was of little concern when gas was $2 per gallon. Same goes for the Hybrids. People are getting used to $3 gas. I don't think you will see much of an upward trend in hybrids. The Camry hybrid is getting all the glory for right now. The Prius is a slow seller this year compared to last year. The only Toyota car selling better this year than last is the Corolla. That indicates some concern about fuel economy. IN fact all the top 5 selling cars are doing better this year than last. All except the Camry. The Prius is not in the top 25 for May. The VW Jetta is out selling Prius. Mostly due to the Very Popular Jetta Diesel. As far as FFVs I doubt anyone would pay a nickel more to get a FFV over a conventional. That is all politics as usual.
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 17, 2006 7:58 pm) What part of "your plan" don't you understand? Or is just making excuses it? JOHN |
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Replying to: john1701a (Jun 17, 2006 7:43 pm) Exactly. Diesel would not have saved GM and Ford from their current problems. After all, the successful automakers such as Toyota and Honda aren't selling them here, either, and those that do sell them sell very few. If the automakers wanted to sell diesels in the US, they would. These very same companies are selling diesels in other markets, so there is a reason why they don't bring them to the US...and no, it isn't because of CARB. They recognize that lack of willingness to change... which is a strong reason for pushing ethanol. That's where we differ. I don't see E85 making it either, unless there are subsidies, fuel tax adjustments and/or reductions in the cost of production that can make it cost effective. If the government mandated that all gas cars ran on E85, and then the price of the fuel was advantageous by whatever means, then consumers would use it. I doubt that would ever happen, but at least consumers could continue to buy cars that use gas, a fuel they obviously understand. I've pushed them on many occasions, asking what the heck they intend to do to draw new interest for diesel. The response was the tranquil sound of crickets in a lonely field on a summer evening. In other words, nothing! They have no plan. I think that it's silly to get wrapped up and absolutely devoted to a technology for its own sake. We need practical solutions, and practicality includes that people use it. Perhaps the changes need to be multi-pronged and incremental. If some combined use of ethanol in some cars, some degree of use of biodiesel in heavy trucks, some hybrids, and some drivers switching to more efficient cars led to an overall reduction in demand of perhaps 10-20%, that would actually have a significant impact. But again, I don't see the free market alone accomplishing this, I believe it will require additional incentives and mandates to make such a thing workable.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 17, 2006 8:09 pm) I beg to differ. You cannot buy a new diesel car in CA or any of the wannabe states. The same cars pass all the EPA emissions even with crappy diesel, but CARB started phasing diesel cars out in 2000. They were completely banned 1/1/2004. The only way you can get a diesel car in CA is to buy one with 7500 miles on it. So if that is not CARB I would like to know who you think is blocking the sale of diesel cars in CA. It sure is not the dealers. They would love to be able to sell to the largest car market on the planet. It was probably well placed campaign contributions by the likes of Toyota. Made it easier to unload the Prius on folks that would like to get more miles per gallon of fuel. I doubt the Prius and subsequent hybrids would have sold half as many vehicles if they had a diesel option to compete against. Hybrids don't sell well at all in the EU where you can get a decent diesel car. Maybe you have some documentation that says that CARB will allow new diesel cars to be sold after 2004 in CA. You seem to know so much about diesel sales. Your argument makes about as much sense as saying a kid does not like ice cream when none is available. My documentation shows you have no clue about the popularity of the diesel cars, if offered. US Sales of VW Diesel Cars Climbed Sharply in April 8 May 2006 Bloomberg. Sales of Volkswagen cars with diesel engines reached a record 22% of VW’s total sales last month. VW posted sales of 20,528 units of all vehicles in the US in April, an 11.2% increase from April 2005. In April, the diesel versions accounted for 38% of 9,930 total Jetta purchases; 40% of 3,580 total New Beetle purchases http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/05/us_sales_of_vw_.html |
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 17, 2006 8:31 pm) Did you bother crunching the numbers on this one? That works out to be about 5,200 diesels. (And the other story there is that the Beetle is no longer selling very well, in any form.) That is not a lot of diesel cars. Based upon those numbers, Toyota is selling more hybrids than VW is selling diesels. It's odd that you see the higher Toyota sales as some indication of failure, while you hail the lower VW sales figures as some sort of Second Coming. |
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 17, 2006 8:09 pm) You missed the "they" reference. I have never endorsed an ethanol-alone solution, nor sighted E85 as an appropriate today choice. E20 is what makes the most sense. JOHN |
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Replying to: john1701a (Jun 17, 2006 7:43 pm) Imagine that! Technological advances increasing the potential acceptance of a product! I don't think certain forum members think that is ever possible.... 
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