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Hybrid Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles - Archived Discussions Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow? 
2104 messages, Last post on Oct 27, 2006 at 5:34 AM
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My bet is hybrids never catch up with diesel sales in the USA. I guess we just have to wait and see who is right. My money is on JD Powers having a better perspective than anyone on this thread. Diesel sales for 2005 were 29,000, hybrid sales are over 300,000 total already. Of course 2007 sales will be ZERO!
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 16, 2006 9:19 pm) Hey, E85 is just getting its feet off the ground. Like any startup venture costs are higher at the beginning, availability starts small and builds, plus the early adopters will lead the way. More efficient production of ethanol will increase, higher sugar content biomass will be directed towards ethanol and engines will be engineered to get better E85 MPG. Within 5 years 100% of Ford's & GM's "gas" vehicles produced will be flex-fuel. During that timeframe, at least one of the major oil companies will repackage themselves as a benevolent 'energy' company and sell E85 at all of their stations. IMHO PS - in 5 yrs, a Midwestern pipeline company will build an E85 compatible pipeline network and solve the distribution problem in its region (and makes lots of $$$ piping the stuff). |
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Replying to: john1701a (Jun 17, 2006 1:32 am) I don't think I limited that to VW TDI. They are having a hard time building them fast enough for the rest of the world, with a 16% rise in world wide sales. As usual, we get the dregs in the USA. Total diesel light vehicle sales in the US include PU trucks with diesel engines. As long as the automakers limit the production on both hybrids and diesels, we will not know the true market. If you eliminated the hybrid sales in the CARB states I don't think they would outsell the VW TDI. All VW says is the TDI is 20% of the Jetta sales. Jetta is outselling the Prius by a good amount this year. Not that it makes any difference. You can also buy a Jetta in the 45 non-CARB states that has a higher emissions rating than the Prius. As a side note VW is the largest manufacturer of FFVs in Brazil. I think all they sell are flex fuel down there. In fact it looks like they may sell more cars in Brazil than Toyota sells in the USA. VW’s flex-fuel sales in Brazil Effective this month, Volkswagen Brazil is halting production of gasoline-only models in the country. All vehicles with gasoline engines will now roll off the line flex-fuel-capable. While a number of manufacturers offer flex-fuel vehicles in Brazil, VW is the first to switch entirely to the technology across its entire line-up. VW introduced its flex-fuel 1.6-liter Goal in March 2003, followed by the 1.0-liter Fox in October 2003 with the Bosch flex-fuel engine management system (earlier post). VW has been a leader in the Brazilian flex-fuel market from the beginning, and now has a 35% market share, with aggregate flex-fuel sales of 575,111 units through April 2006. The Goal and the Fox together represent of those 464,087 units. |
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 16, 2006 9:19 pm) Now, now, let's look at the myths and falsehoods again...and again...and again! CA may never have an ability to use E85...different strokes for different folks...that's the beauty of FFV vehicles. CA is dead set against ethanol...OK, they have to figure out something else for the CA drivers to use in FFV vehicles. Biodiesel crops are in shorter supply than ethanol crops, that is why biodiesel is getting so slowly off the ground. I have posted actual tests, and you should take the time to read them...what are you proposing?? ...junk yard science for items like big unnecessary hybrid pickups that will cost their second owners thousands and thousands of dollars in repair costs (the downside on all hybrids) or diesels that still do not qualify for anti-pollutant specs in the USA...when will those problems be solved. The first solving od the diesel pollutant problem will be focused on our big rigs and not any autos...they will be secondary. Once the large trucks have been fixed, then auto makers will probably strat importing the diesels again, but into an infrastructure that cannot support any diesel autos. The engine technology has been solved for all post 1998 ethanol use, while gas guzzling pickup hybrids and unwanted diesels (didn't you firesale your 2005 VW diesel)? the prices you are quoting for E85 are just false...I don't know what there is more to say about that. Please use facts. Like it or not, MTBF being replaced by Ethanol is the law of the land..and is in Canada...Mexico may be a good choice for an ethanol-free environment.
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Replying to: seniorjose (Jun 17, 2006 5:37 am) Now how many filling stations are you predicting will have E85 available for the 50+ million cars on the West coast by the end of 2007? You have one so far, let's hear if for the E85 team. I hear the ethanol evaporates before I see the price of ethanol is going even higher. I guess those nasty old corn farmers want a bigger chunk of the pie. |
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 16, 2006 1:34 pm) I wish that you'd reference your sources. Throughout much of 2005, the Prius was a car on waiting lists, which means that inventories would have been perhaps just a few days. Your own source indicated that Prius inventories are currently at 8 days. All of that means that Toyota would not have even had the capacity to deliver 250,000 to the US market during 2005. They would not have planned such a thing if they didn't have the factory capacity to build it. Unlike some of the Detroit automakers, TMC does an outstanding job of inventory management, so you can be assured that they would not have projected 250,000 units when they couldn't build anywhere near that amount.
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Replying to: seniorjose (Jun 17, 2006 7:26 am) It was a hot seller for sure. Paid $26k and sold it 13 months later for $29k. I happen to buy just when the price of diesel went past gas prices. Being the knee jerk society that we are, people quit buying diesel cars in parts of the USA. Buy low and sell high. That has been my motto. the prices you are quoting for E85 are just false...I don't know what there is more to say about that. Please use facts I did not quote them. They are posted on a very PRO E85 website. Scan through this list. I am sure you will find something you like. None are priced to actually compete with unleaded regular, even with a 60 cent advantage it is still a loser fuel. E85 prices |
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 17, 2006 7:56 am) I did not say 2005. I was corrected. It was 250k Toyota hybrids for 2006. Not 250k Prius for 2006. So we have to see if they make their prediction. Toyota is currently holding back production on the Prius to use those parts for the very popular Camry Hybrid. Are you happy now? No one seems to know if Toyota will offer an E85 option on any of their hybrids. I thought you may know as you seem to be very pro TMC.
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 17, 2006 8:32 am) I'm not "pro Toyota", but I recognize that it is an extremely well managed company that serves its markets very well. That being said, most of their products generally leave me flat, and I don't own one. As for E85, as I've noted, Toyota is smart to promote hybrids, and to not tout E85. Why would it do this today, when doing so would give credibility to GM, and when it isn't now selling these cars itself? The last thing TMC wants to do is to hand a competitive benefit to General Motors, which has recently gone on the offensive to tout E85 in an effort to make itself appear innovative and green. If GM wants to build a market for itself, Toyota is not going to bankroll it. And don't kid yourself, TMC is developing FFV vehicles. As noted by this article in Edmunds, Toyota will have FFV cars in Brazil next year and in the US in 2008. They'll market those cars here when they have them here, not two years in advance when Ford and GM would be the ones to benefit. |
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Replying to: seniorjose (Jun 17, 2006 5:29 am) And actually, there is certainty that VW is extending the Jetta model run to the end of this year to push the TDI supply of 2006 models into next spring. Beyond that, there is speculation that the 2008 models might show up earlier than expected, so the unavailabilty gap could potentially be much smaller than we are currently anticipating. VWoA is going to take a major hit without the diesels, and with Wolfgang Bernard running VWAG, one would assume that he understands and places importance on the American market. This whole "Americans don't like diesels" argument is silly. When gas was less than $2 per gallon, nobody in this country thought twice about miles per gallon. Since $3 per is turning out to be more permanent seeming now, the sales of midsize SUV's have fallen off a very large cliff that threatens both Ford and GM. As a result, saying that higher gas prices are not going to modify behavior seems very specious to me. And finally, from what they have released, Honda seems very much on board (new engine plant, new V6 diesel engine for the Odyssey, Ridgeline, and Pilot, and US emissions certification for the I4 currently sold in Europe). Honda is as mainstream America as they get...and I'd expect sales to follow accordingly. A British car site has the Jeep Grand Cherokee CRD getting 51% better combined mileage than the JGC V8...that's pretty compelling stuff, if you ask me. I know I'd bet that Americans aren't nearly as stupid and inclined to prejudge as other posters here do... Of course, if EPA certification turns out to be hard or if gas goes back down to under $2 per gallon, this situation changes...
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