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Hybrid Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles - Archived Discussions Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow? 
2104 messages, Last post on Oct 27, 2006 at 5:34 AM
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 16, 2006 7:45 am) This is NOT all bad. It is the virtual ignoring and dropping the ball with respect to disseminating information that is troublesome. Overcoming decades of stigma may be possible -- but only with information put out by: 1. Our Government and picked up on by the media 2. Groups such as the TDF 3. The manufacturers themselves 4. Fuel companies (big oil and alternative oil, that is). We may not be able to overcome the stigma -- I bet we can. We won't know until or unless we attempt to get some info out that discusses not only hybrids, ethanol (FFV's) and fuel cells, but also brings diesel into the light. Coal was, for a time, so dirty, so unpopular, so unlikely to have much of an economic future -- now, it is coming back even in 'appalachia' (the Ohio Valley) as new approaches to using this fuel have been brought to the fore. There are other examples, I'll grant, where the dead could not be revived; in diesel's favor and against E85 right now we do have economics which can be used to create a powerful motive to reconsider decades of stigma. Just a thought. Bill Ford, where are you? If I see one more Green or Yellow commercial with your face in it and no new, sexy diesel passenger cars, I think I'll hurl. 
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Replying to: markcincinnati (Jun 16, 2006 8:04 am) But in any case, you could already theoretically achieve some gains by simply converting the US heavy truck fleet to biodiesel...but there isn't much biodiesel for sale, either. If the goal is to reduce dependency on oil usage, why not focus on at least taking the segment where diesel already is the preferred alternative, and go from there? Expecting to give diesel religion to the masses in the US strikes me as wholly unrealistic. (Europe is an entirely different story.) The automakers have no reason to invest heavily in promoting a product that consumers don't want, and the feds will never increase gas taxes to influence consumer behavior, when they figure that the only behavior they'll motivate is to get their constituents to vote against them.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 16, 2006 8:12 am) I will have to disagree with you on the diesel. People as a whole are going to mind their pocket books first. Diesel offers a cost per mile that is less than regular gas. If it were not for government policies in place that stifled the diesel movement you would have seen a large section of cars running on diesel. There is a pent up demand for the cars and many people out there would strongly consider one if it were available in a line they want. Scuttlebutt has it that there might be some more moderately priced diesels coming in the 2008 MY. Lets see what they do, I suspect that they will go pretty fast.
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Jun 16, 2006 8:47 am) That cost per mile advantage has always been there, and US consumers have largely not found it compelling. And the lack of a pump price advantage makes it harder for the typical consumer to see any advantage. I'd say that the two things that might help to give diesel that push that it needs are (a) diesel cars are much, much better than they were even just a few years ago and (b) these products will definitely be developed, regardless of the lack of US demand, because there is enough push for it in Europe and elsewhere to ensure that the R&D commitment is there. The main disadvantage is that the automakers would need to make a substantial financial and infrastructure commitment to change the minds of American consumers, which probably doesn't make much sense for them when they have other products that they need to promote to make money. (A couple of them might in order to capture a niche, but the mainstream would largely steer clear.) There's not much reason for Toyota, Ford, GM, Honda, etc. to throw a lot of weight behind this when there are more profitable and less risky alternatives available to them. The other problem is distribution. Most gas stations in the US aren't selling diesel, which makes diesel more of a risk and less convenient for the consumer. It needs to be worth the while of the fuel station operators to offer it, which leaves you with a chicken-and-egg problem -- consumers don't have diesel cars, and don't want diesel if it's harder to find...yet service stations don't want to provide it if customers don't need it, which means it gets carried in relatively few places. This all goes back to why I believe that government intervention is the only way that you'd ever spur signficant demand. You would need laws/ taxes that create a pump price advantage for the fuel, force automakers to offer diesel products in the US market at competitive prices, and require gas station operators to sell it, and I can't see any of that happening. Without that, I can't see how diesel demand would ever prove to be more than a tiny niche demanded by a few very committed devotees and some fencesitters who will drop off if gas prices decline.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 16, 2006 9:13 am) You seem to be of the misunderstanding that the cost per mile variable is the only thing driving the demand and/or supply, it isn't. Diesels have pretty much been regulated out of the marketplace. Eliminate those artificial barriers to the marketplace and diesel usage will grow greatly. these products will definitely be developed, regardless of the lack of US demand, There is a demand for them in the U.S., its just that there are artificial barriers that keep them from being sold in great numbers. The other problem is distribution. Most gas stations in the US aren't selling diesel, which makes diesel more of a risk and less convenient for the consumer. Diesel is very easy to find, yes not every gas station has it but its plentiful and very easy to find. There is no risk in owning a diesel powered car when it comes to finding fuel, if there were our roads would be littered with out of gas semi's and buses. This all goes back to why I believe that government intervention is the only way that you'd ever spur signficant demand. No, government intervention is the reason so few diesels are out there. Eliminate that government intervention and you will see a great increase in the use of diesel powered cars. Adding even more government intervention to correct something that government intervention already created is just going to make a bigger mess.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 16, 2006 9:13 am) As I talk to folks more and more on the subject they seem to think the cost of building an E85 infrastructure would be higher than diesel. Speaking only of Ohio, there are just now 10 stations statewide selling E85. There must be 10 stations selling both "normal" gas and diesel between here (Blue Ash Ohio, just slightly north of Cincinnati) and Interstate 71 (a couple of miles at most.) I have been to the Audi driving school in Austria 4 times since the late 1990's -- last time was in 2003. My last visit, we drove Audi A4 2.5TDI vehicles. Other than "massive" torque from a dead stop, there was nothing that would indicate the car was powered by anything other than a traditional internal combustion engine. Heck, it almost felt like an S4 at rest it had so much torque. 40 Americans, after two and half days of driving these cars (in the dead of a January Winter in Seefeld, Austria) were literally clammoring to "take these cars" back home with us. Of course, at that time, and until just two weeks ago, our fuel in the US was too dirty. This is shortly to be behind us and a "flood" of Mercedes cars will soon be made available, as will Audi and VW vehicles. If we can have at least one name brand Japanese car hit the streets with a diesel AND put 1/2 the energy into "re-introducing" diesel to the US consumer as we have in touting Green and Yellow, the products will trickle down and out and infiltrate the rank and file automobiles for sale in the US. Word of mouth, eventually, will come into play and while I seriously doubt diesel will be THE solution, I think in the near term is is a whole bunch more economically prudent (for the consumer) than even subsidized E85. My biggest beef is with our politicians who seemingly did do things to stimulate diesel, E85 and hybrids (and even fuel cells, etc etc). Then apparently all we hear about are the things that aren't quite financially ready for Prime Time. The Addicted to Oil Speech was notable and quotable -- eh? Sure, for the thousands of people and reporters who were sent scurrying to their Internet browsers to google the term "switch grass," or "advanced batteries," or some other future tech damn thing. If our President and our Congressional representatives would send me the e-Newsletters and discuss diesel with 25% of the passion that they discuss E85, and the LPS cars of Europe were to show up in showrooms sometime in the next couple of years, I just have to think the public would look at a diesel car with 20 to 40% improvement in mileage and a bit more power and compare it to an E85 car that effectively gets about 1/3 worse mileage using subsidized fuel that costs roughly the same as gasoline and say "na baby na" to E85 and "yea baby yea" to diesel. The 2.5TDI Audi A4 quattro sport was a BLAST. I'd have one now if they were available. Both Audi/VW and Mercedes (w/4Matics) will within a year have these "sheens" these fine sheens here for us 'mericans. I say persue them all -- and edumcate the people regarding them.
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Jun 16, 2006 10:14 am) Those roadblocks, technically, are being chipped away by both the Energy act our Congresswoman bragged about (see my posts above on this subject) and by the bringing to market "clean-er and clean-er" diesel fuel THIS YEAR. Once the government steps out of the way, as you correctly pointed out, demand will pick up -- and pick up, and pick up. Even the win at Sebring a couple of months ago -- by a diesel powered car -- was a chipping away of some of the stigmas. Add this and the tax incentives available if one purchases a diesel together and the roadblocks will fall. Subtracting governement intervention appears to be on the horizon. Now we just need a little bit o that "marketing magic" that we've seen from our government, broadcast PSA's and the manufacturers (of the cars and the fuel)! 
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Jun 16, 2006 10:14 am) Prior to CARB tightening up regulations as relates to diesel particulate matter, etc., there wasn't demand then, either. Until recently, we had decades of minimal legislation re: diesel, yet diesel didn't carry weight with the buying public at any time in this country. The demand was pretty close to zero before the legislation, so the legislation really has had very little to do with it.
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Replying to: markcincinnati (Jun 16, 2006 10:44 am) As for the popularity of the cars, the only way that I see the free market being the sole driver of higher demand is for a mainstream automaker to have a breakthrough product that spurs its rivals to get into the game. This is not likely to come from a market leader, but from a competitor that does not lead the market and needs a distinct advantage to gain attention. So who would that be? You know that it wouldn't be Toyota or Honda, they don't need such a differentiator when they have others. Ditto for BMW or Lexus, which dominate their luxury niches. In my mind, that leaves firms such as VW, Audi, Mitsubishi, Subaru, Mazda, etc., which are mainstream enough to reach many buyers, but that have stronger rivals in their markets. Of that bunch, I see only VW and Audi even having a slight possibility of putting any marketing effort into it. Is there enough to this that would encourage Audi to start heavily promoting diesels here, to accompany quattro as its prime differentiator against MB and BMW? I seriously doubt it, as these brands are associated with sophistication and performance, two areas where diesel is perceived to be lacking. How about for VW? I doubt that, too. Neither one stands much to gain from putting a big push behind the effort, and each have quite a bit to lose. Nobody wants to be the one that specializes in selling white elephants to the US market. They may sell a few, and they may create a few loyal buyers, but that probably won't be nearly enough to influence their competitors to jump in with both feet.
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Replying to: markcincinnati (Jun 16, 2006 10:44 am) Scuttlebutt has it that both Honda and Hyundai might be coming out with diesels (Accord and Sonata respectfully) in the 2008 MY. As well as seeing some non grey market Smarts (60+ MPG highway) in the future too. |
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