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Hybrid Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles - Archived Discussions Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow? 
2104 messages, Last post on Oct 27, 2006 at 5:34 AM
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Replying to: proudamerican8 (Aug 22, 2006 8:17 am) The stories told, however, are true as far as I can tell -- but they are incomplete. Why in the wide wide world of sports do we only see the great and wonderful economic things that will happen to a few corn producers -- NEVER is there any mention of the impact on the consumer. In response to yet another Front Page Corn for Fuel Article, I wrote the editor: Dear Cincinnati Enquirer Editor, A few months ago, I became interested in Ethanol (E85) fuel. My primary interest was economic. I, like perhaps most Americans, would prefer to have less expensive "gasoline" and less dependency on "Persian Gulf" oil. Additionally, I did see "An Inconvenient Truth" and "Who Killed the Electric Car" and would also like to be able to have a fuel that would "pollute less," if possible. The first thing I noticed was the relative lack of Flexible Fuel Vehicles (FFV's) on the market. Many of the FFV's seem to be fairly large and thirsty vehicles, like the Chevy Tahoe for 2007, for instance. The next thing I noticed was the lack of fueling stations (there will soon be but 10 for the entire state of Ohio.) Recently, I happened to pick up a copy of Popular Mechanics, noting that it had a feature article on alternative fuels. Subsequently, I found articles in Business Week and Car and Driver that presented a side of Ethanol that I had not heard. Indeed, in the "mass media" I have, to this day, not heard, read or seen much about Ethanol that gives what I would characterize as complete and "practical" information and data. It is somewhat confusing to read the Thursday, August 10th edition of the Cincinnati Enquirer ("Schmidt's new SUV can use Ethanol") and the Sunday, August 20th edition ("The Case For Corn") -- to say nothing of at least one article in the Business Courier (August 18th, "Inventor tends field of dreams") -- and essentially be informed of the positive aspects of growing corn for Ethanol (to make E85.) Nowhere do these articles present what using E85 will mean to the retail consumer. After reading the articles in the newspapers and magazines mentioned above, I began additional on-line information gathering on the subjects of Ethanol, Diesel and Bio-diesel. I found many websites and blogs on these subjects -- 4,270,000 of them with one Google search for "E85" alone. I have been able to find two "apparently believable" types of information. Proponents of E85 need only know that the "National Ethanol Vehicle Coalition" can be found at http://www.e85fuel.com. Likewise, the American Lung Association has a pro-Ethanol site, "Clean Air Choice" at http://www.cleanairchoice.org. Interestingly, this site has a section that does post pump prices for E85 and regular dino-gasoline at http://www.cleanairchoice.org/outdoor/PriceForum.asp. Considering that it is easy to find E85, when compared to regular gasoline, is often more expensive, I conclude this site is at least attempting to tell more of the "Ethanol from Corn -- for Fuel" story than most sources of information on the subject. For example, today in Annapolis, Maryland E85 is $4.10 per gallon and Regular Unleaded is $3.04 at West Street Citgo. Another price posting on Friday, August 18th, had E85 at $2.95 and Regular Unleaded at $3.15 at the Kwik Trip in Mosinee, Wisconsin. Generally, if you take the time to review the prices that can be found posted on this site and elsewhere, you will find that Regular Unleaded and E85 are generally close in price. There are exceptions, of course, but typically the exceptions will be that E85 will be one dollar or more higher than Regular Unleaded and sometimes E85 will be up to one dollar less. Throwing out such differences, however, gives an impression of the current pump prices for E85 and Regular Unleaded as being "similar" (within 10% or less.) Some sites do seem to publish only the cases where E85 is more expensive -- most folks, would, I assume view such sites claims with a skeptical eye. Initially, it would seem that using E85 would be a good thing -- or at least ought to be. It is, after all, 85% renewable, costs about the same or a little more than regular gasoline and is "coming on line," making it more and more likely to be widely available. Moreover, according to Bill Ford and the TV commercials most of us have been exposed to, Detroit is making a commitment to produce more and more FFV's for the American public's consumption. We're on our way to energy independence is the message here. Yet, here is some of the additional information that I have been able to find (from numerous sources) about E85: - E85 at today's price reflects a $.51 per gallon US government subsidy, meaning that the "true cost" per gallon is higher than the pump price. - A gallon of E85 will only go about 70% as far as a gallon of gasoline, meaning that the true cost per mile when using E85 is significantly higher than when using gasoline. - As the per gallon subsidy for Ethanol fuel is phased out, the cost per mile to drive using E85 will be about 50% more than using gasoline. Even with the subsidy, the cost to drive using E85 is about 30% more than using gasoline. - Ethanol cannot be transported through the distribution infrastructure (pipelines) already in place, instead it must be trucked which increases its cost and decreases its efficiency (since it takes more energy to truck it than it would to pump it.) New pipelines can be built designed to transport Ethanol fuel -- this too would add expense, increasing the pump price while the costs were recouped. - E85 is "unlikely to have any material effect" global warming (at most 4% according to university studies) -- detailed explanations can be found in several articles, some from prestigious universities, some citing these studies can be found in Popular Mechanics, Car and Driver and Road and Track magazines, too. = continued #2038
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Replying to: markcincinnati (Aug 22, 2006 10:08 am) Spoken (or in this case typed) like someone who has never been to Gary, IN.
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Aug 22, 2006 5:31 am) The Warrenville station is the closest E85 station that I know of around me, that is convenient (on my way to/from work & school). But I don't think the $.30 price difference is enough to justify using it if my vehicle was so-equipped to do so. I'm like the rest in I haven't seem any real-world mileage statements from people using FFV vehicles, whether personal or governmental/fleet. The only FFVs I've seen are Taurus fleet vehicles.
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Replying to: markcincinnati (Aug 22, 2006 10:15 am) - The quantity of E85 required to reduce our dependence on "foreign" oil is staggering -- at least based on the quantities we are contemplating producing in the near term: “According to the Renewable Fuels Association, 95 ethanol refineries produced more than 4.3 billion gal. of ethanol in 2005. An additional 40 new or expanded refineries slated to come on line in the next 18 months will increase that to 6.3 billion gal. That sounds like a lot – and it is – but it represents just over 3 percent of our annual consumption of more than 200 billion gal. of gasoline and diesel.One acre of corn can produce 300 gal. of ethanol per growing season. So, in order to replace that 200 billion gal. of petroleum products, American farmers would need to dedicate 675 million acres, or 71 percent of the nation's 938 million acres of farmland, to growing feedstock. Clearly, ethanol alone won't kick our fossil fuel dependence–unless we want to replace our oil imports with food imports. Too often, discussions of alternative energy take place in an alternative universe where prices do not matter.” – “Crunching the Numbers on Alternative Fuels,” Popular Mechanics, April, 2006 The "sum and substance" of E85 then seems to be: - It could work as the equivalent of hamburger helper -- it has the ability, that is, to stretch our dwindling supply of crude oil. - The pump price for E85 currently is about the same as regular gasoline or a little more (and sometimes a little less.) - The pump price "eventually" for E85 could remain the same as gasoline if we are not constrained by the supply of Ethanol (as we are today and apparently will be for years to come.) - The cost per mile, however, to use E85 is significantly higher than the cost to use gasoline. - Most of the stories written about Corn for Ethanol production do not discuss the higher costs of using E85 in an FFV. It would seem to be the case, that when the consumer discovers the higher costs of using E85 -- i.e., 30% to 50% or more -- that even the most altruistic among us will not want to buy it or will not be able to afford it. For example: If your family has a mini van and an SUV and you fill them both once per week, it is likely that your current weekly fuel costs are about $120 based on a 20 gallon tank in each vehicle and $3.00 per gallon gasoline. Were you to use E85, today, your fuel costs to fill up would likely be about $132 (10% more) for the two tankfuls, but each tankful would only go about 70% as far, meaning that your weekly fuel cost would really be about $188. Your monthly cost, assuming a 4 week month, then would rise from $480 to $752, an increase of $272. Few American consumers would pay $272 per month more for fuel than they have to -- even if they want to kick the Persian Gulf habit. The case against Ethanol is hardly trivial in financial terms for the consumer, that is. Another solution does exist, however, that does receive some slight coverage -- but considering the economic and practical case against Ethanol, the coverage of the alternative solution seems disproportionately small, especially considering that the case for the alternative seems compelling. Moreover, thus far, our government is, apparently, also virtually ignoring or at least de-emphasizing this currently available, mature, and immediately adoptable lower-cost, immediate benefit technologies. Yet, the EPA, of all places is, apparently fully aware of an alternative to Ethanol. For example, according to Margo Oge, head of the Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Transportation & Air Quality, as quoted in the February 20, 2006, issue of Business Week: “The U.S. could save up to 1.4 million barrels of oil per day – roughly the amount it imports from Saudi Arabia – if a third of U.S. vehicles ran on diesel.” Although, Oge did not differentiate between petroleum based diesel and biodiesel, in this remark, current diesel engine technology “sees” biodiesel and petroleum based clean diesel as equivalent fuels. This means that a diesel engine performs the same on either kind of diesel (petrol or bio based or blended) – of course the strategic draw for biodiesel or bio-blend is that, like Ethanol, it is renewable. Unlike Ethanol, however, diesel (bio or dino) will go between 20-40% further per gallon than gasoline and currently costs about the same as E85. E85 goes about 70% as far as gasoline. Diesel goes about 130% as far as gasoline. A vehicle that can go 30 miles on a gallon of gasoline will: - go 21 miles on a gallon of E85; - go 39 miles on a gallon of diesel -- and if that diesel is bio-diesel, it is renewable in the same sense that Ethanol is renewable (unless the fuel is B100, which then suggest the fuel is 100% renewable.) A car equipped with a diesel engine will travel almost 90% further on a gallon of fuel than the same car if it were equipped with a similarly powerful engine capable of using E85. The United States and Europe are taking very different approaches to the use of clean diesel technology to improve fuel economy in passenger cars and light-duty trucks, according to a report released by the Washington, DC based Diesel Technology Forum (DTF). According to Allen Schaeffer, DTF’s executive director: "We can learn a great deal here in the US from the European experience with clean automotive diesels, and this report profiles the experiences and policies that have led to these successes." The contrast in diesel usage between the U.S. and Europe is stark. In Europe one of every three new cars sold today is powered by clean diesel technology and in the premium and luxury categories, over 70 percent are clean diesels. But in the US – light-duty diesels account for only about 0.26 percent of all new cars sold, with only slightly higher figures in the light-duty truck markets. DTF’s Schaeffer continues: "What we've found is that the Europeans are able to reap the rewards of clean diesel technology – efficiency and environmental benefits – while the US has mostly regulatory roadblocks. It's completely understandable why clean diesel technology has such a high acceptance in Europe – the engines provide more power, are more fuel efficient, are more durable, are extremely responsive with low-end torque, and have 30-60 percent lower greenhouse gas emissions." The case, today, favors diesel over Ethanol both from a cost perspective and from the perspective that using Ethanol won't matter much, because the possibility of any significant reduction in the total amount of oil used if we substitute fuel derived from corn is tiny, single-digit tiny for years to come. == continued |
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Replying to: markcincinnati (Aug 22, 2006 10:15 am) Further, as several studies, including “The Great Alternative Fuel Rally” sponsored by Popular Mechanics have underscored, the number of gallons required to drive an economy car equipped with a gasoline engine from New York to California would be about 90 - 100 gallons. If the average price of gasoline was $3.00 the cost would be about $300.00. To drive the same distance with a similar FFV using E85 would cost about $450.00. The main reason is that E85 "gasoline" will not "go as far" as conventional "gasoline.” Moreover, without subsidies, ethanol is likely to be more expensive than gasoline for some time (years) to come. At this point, the only way to make E85 attractive appears to be to subsidize it with taxpayer’s money. Some taxpayers feel we should not subsidize E85. That is, Ethanol should be viable without spending our tax dollars – period. If it is not, focus on other alternatives, such as clean diesel, until E85 becomes viable economically and environmentally. The quantities of articles (a flashback to "Megatrends") published in our daily newspapers, weekly magazine and the broadcast news features seem thus far to focus on the benefits of being an Ethanol maker or corn for fuel farmer-- and those benefits, apparently, ARE REAL. Yet, many of these benefits will be lost on most consumers when they discover that using E85 carries a hefty cost in miles per gallon. Conversely, the roll out of clean diesel that commenced earlier this year positions us to begin the evolution from gasoline engines to diesel engines (until a superior technology is developed or matures.) Over time, diesel if it attains a 30% market penetration would significantly lower our costs to fuel our vehicles, reduce or eliminate our need for "Middle Eastern" oil and offer a reduction in greenhouse emissions. The question stands, why are the Ethanol articles -- growing in frequency, regularity and depth -- not telling more of the story? Thank you. == The Response: Mark, Thanks for writing -- and reading. I can't answer the question at the end of your letter. Ethanol coverage is spotty at best at most American newspapers. All I can say is that I embarked to examine solely the production side of ethanol and see where, if at all, it fell in Ohio's Third Frontier and economic development programs. I found it ironic that we have all this corn in Ohio, but hadn't joined the bandwagon of ethanol producing states. That's happening now, of course, no thanks to Third Frontier. How everything plays out on the retail and automobile-production side of the equation I don't know. I can't imagine that there will be any shortage of stories on those angles. Senior business writer Cincinnati Enquirer 
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Aug 22, 2006 10:16 am)  Enuff said. (Or by the water treatment facility at the intersection of routes 38 (Roosevelt Road) and 59.) Can you say RIPE!! Or back in the day at the Chi-town stockyards!! 
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Replying to: jae5 (Aug 22, 2006 10:17 am) When I first moved out here about 10 years ago that was one of the least expensive around, times change I guess. The Warrenville station is the closest E85 station that I know of around me, that is convenient There is one several miles to the south on RT 59 and (I believe) 111th that sells E-85, not sure if that would work for you. The only FFVs I've seen are Taurus fleet vehicles. I used to have a Caravan that was FFV, I used E-85 once and my city mileage went from about 21 MPG to about 15 MPG. |
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Replying to: jae5 (Aug 22, 2006 10:20 am) All the times I have been by that intersection I never noticed anything. Now if you want ripe try Hillside at Mannheim Rd and the Ike (Eisenhower Expressway).
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Aug 22, 2006 10:55 am) Ah, yes, another goody!! I think it's all the sweaty armpits from everyone that gets caught in the Hillside Strangler. SW, you're lucky you've never been exposed to the, shall I say, "fragrant aroma" of the 38/59 intersection. Come through there at the wrong time and oh boy!! I should bottle it as a new form of smelling salts. Anyway, the 111th/59 station is a little too south of me, but nice to know. I make all trips as short & sweet and direct as possible, saving as much fuel as I can. |
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| CR has a great article about the ethanol scam this month and how it substantially increases gasoline usage in USA. you won't exactly find the word 'scam' in the article but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it be a duck. that's what i'm talkin about. mallard style. | |
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