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Hybrid Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles - Archived Discussions Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow? 
2104 messages, Last post on Oct 27, 2006 at 5:34 AM
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Replying to: scott1256 (Jul 05, 2006 7:41 am) How would the dropping of the $.51 per gallon incentive help supply? Won't the price and mpg equation have to get into balance with gasoline before folks would willingly use E85 knowing they would have to stop every 400 miles vs every 600 miles on a car that had a 20 gallon tank and could muster 30mpg's with gasoline? To make me stop that often, I would need a really cheaper price per gal (say at least 10% cheaper.)
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Replying to: scott1256 (Jul 05, 2006 7:41 am) I assume you mean that if there were no market restrictions or subsidies we could get an endless supply of ethanol from other countries. Of course that would kill the ethanol industry in the USA. That is the only reason for the ethanol subsidies is to satisfy the midwest political machine. If the studies are correct, sugar cane produces 7 times the ethanol that an equal value of corn can produce. |
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Replying to: markcincinnati (Jul 05, 2006 8:12 am) It would help the supply by making the US market more attractive for potential importers because their product would be cheaper due to the lack of a tarrif. That does not mean that the demand would increase by much. Won't the price and mpg equation have to get into balance with gasoline before folks would willingly use E85 knowing they would have to stop every 400 miles vs every 600 miles on a car that had a 20 gallon tank and could muster 30mpg's with gasoline? People would have to perceive that they get better cost per mileage with E85 to start using it widely. As for frequency of fill ups to many that may not matter as some people fill up at regular intervals regardless of the gas gauge. I for one fill up every saturday regardless of how full my tank is. of course usually it is getting close to empty for the week and E85 most likely would get me through the week. But I also fill the wifes daily drive each saturday and it rarely has less than half a tank, for that E85 would make it to the weekly fill up. |
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Replying to: scott1256 (Jul 05, 2006 7:41 am) |
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I've suggested we at least consider what would happen to all the happy and unhappy talk about E85 were the "oil fairy" to wave a magic wand and "poof" our supply of oil would increase (hence its upward price pressure would decrease.) We've talked about E85 in response to higher (but not as high as during the shortages during the '80's) pump prices most acutely and noticeably post-Katrina and geo-political this, that and the other thing. We have argued, contradicted and discussed at length the merits of E85 (and the de-merits) so to speak. We may have even reached a point where we either largely agree or, for some, agree to disagree. There are some facts that have not been disputed as far as I can tell by a careful review of many of the postings here: E85 in an FFV vehicle gets substantially lower MPG's than gasoline or even E10 E85, thus far, is not substantially lower in price per gallon than gasoline E85 has both a supply and demand problem at present -- and we have presented our cases in great and eloquent detail for some time now. We seem, however, to agree on but ONE thing -- we were hoping Ethanol (and other alternatives to "gasoline") would buy us time to wean ourselves from Dino Sourced Fuel. We seem, also, to at least concede we have a limited supply of petroleum on the planet -- even if we differ as to "how long" we have before we literally run out. Several of us have asked the apparently rhetorical question "would we even be having this discussion if the pump prices would drop and we were actually able to read stories about "ample supplies" on the low end to an absolute "glut" on the high end?" The responses are varied, but somewhat of a theme seems to have emerged, and that appears to me to be: If we saw the price of a bbl of oil drop by $10 or $20 or even more, we believe E85 would be hard pressed at almost ANY realistic price to compete with dino-fuel (E0 up to E10.) The great hand of Adam Smith would probably do GM and others a favor and cause them to be able to sell (and offer) even more and bigger SUV's to a market that seems to think a Chevy Tahoe is finally not too small, now that is has a third row rear seat (even if it only gets used 3 times annually when the grandparents are in town.) I, for one, have been a proponent of plowing some money (more money, perhaps even OUR money -- perhaps) into the vast resources we know exist (800+ trillion bbls) right here in the Western US. I, among several (many?), have been mad as hell and not willing to take it any more -- about the $.51/gallon subsidy, i.e. Further, I have been mad as hell about the paucity of information about the MPG that the FFV will attain when using E85 vs gasoline. Bygones. Anyway, here is what I found to further bolster the notion -- the notion of a soon to come "oil glut" -- (and one would imagine, drop, substantial drop, in pump prices.) Dateline 4 July 2006: "Moody’s foresees rapid supply growth continuing to exceed that enjoyed by demand over the next couple of years. Indeed, supply growth should accelerate in 2007 and 2008, as we increasingly start to see the fruits from the previous [2005 forward] price rally begin to feed through into heightened capacity growth. Moody’s foresees crude oil prices slipping gradually over the next couple of years, falling below US $50 toward the end of 2007, as our forecast for more market surpluses increasingly filter through. Such a forecast, however, does not fully account for the possibility of further outbreaks of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. If, for example, the U.S. was to tire of Iran's nuclear energy programme and decided to invade, oil prices would skyrocket. However, we have focussed [here, today] on our base case scenario, and saved talk of geopolitical crisis for another time. For now, we return to Moody’s underlying forecast of further oil surpluses, and no great escalation in geopolitical uncertainty, taking oil back below US $50 by late 2007, and falling into the low US $40s by the summer of 2008. Crude oil prices are forecast to fall, as the global market increasingly realises that the recent past was not in fact undersupplied." The full text of the article and charts and graphs and stuff are here: Klik Lots of reasons to wonder if all this E85 support and investments will be for naught? 
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Replying to: markcincinnati (Jul 05, 2006 11:54 am) Its "Magical Oil Fairy" and as Socal has pointed out the Magical Oil Fairy wants her (or his) name capitalized. 
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Jul 05, 2006 12:03 pm) 
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Replying to: markcincinnati (Jul 05, 2006 12:45 pm) You bet you're going to apologize. I'm not going to start paying $5 per gallon for fuel just because you decided to upset Her. Grab those rosaries and head for the confessional, stat.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jul 05, 2006 12:50 pm) The Magical Oil Fairy is Catholic?
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Jul 05, 2006 12:54 pm) 
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