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Hybrid Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles - Archived Discussions Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow? 
2104 messages, Last post on Oct 27, 2006 at 5:34 AM
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 22, 2006 2:35 pm) They were already built. They refused to sell the ones they had out in the field. There is a lot of people in CA that wanted to keep their EV-1 when the lease ran out. I think that GM did not want to have the warranty to contend with. It is the same as the one on the hybrid crappola.
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 22, 2006 2:41 pm) Somehow, you seem to think that the Prius is a flop, even though Toyota has now sold over 500,000 hybrids worldwide and sold over 100,000 Priuses in the US during CY 2005, yet at the same time, you believe that 800 people leasing an EV-1 over a several year period is a resounding success. Forgive me for believing that your ideology is trumping your logic. Between 800 units over several years, and 100,000 cars in a single year, I think I'd know which one has a better shot at making it.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 22, 2006 2:35 pm) In a recent issue of Motor Trend, an interviewer asked GM chief Rick Wagoner about the central regret of his tenure. He said it was killing the EV1 program. The answer is obvious, and the answer is the market. No reason to build it if they aren't going to buy it. Try to imagine the frustration of a buyer being told that he can't have a product because nobody wants it. This buyer then asks, how do you know nobody wants it? Answer, we know that nobody wants it because we only sold 800 units in 4 years. The buyer then asks, how many units were produced? The answer, 800 units. So every unit produced was sold? Answer, yes. Were dealers offering big incentives or any incentives to sell these vehicles? Answer, no. Did these vehicles spend a long time on the dealer's lot? Answer, no, they were pre-sold. Yet there was no demand? Answer, yes, only 800 units were sold.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 22, 2006 3:02 pm) You seem to think that you have some greater insight into what Americans want. How many people want Hummers? While I don't know the answer I'm sure it's not very many. Why are they being produced if nobody wants them? A company would be crazy to produce a car that a fraction of a percent of the market would buy. Right?
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Replying to: tpe (Jun 22, 2006 3:05 pm) If this was such a hot product, why wasn't there a 50,000 person waiting list? 100,000? 200,000? Why weren't they lined up out the door of the dealership, demanding their cars? And why didn't all the other automakers see all of the excitement, and jump into the game? They all leaped in when they saw the minivan and SUV, and now they're jumping into hybrids, yet the EV programs remain tiny and experimental. Actions speak louder than words. I appreciate the desire to find a silver lining on the cloud, but it ain't there. And as for Wagoner's regrets, I can think of several more things that he should really regret, but I guess that sounding green in retrospect sounds nice in an interview.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 22, 2006 3:02 pm) You may think it was good business I don't. I lost interest in cars when I bought my first Toyota Land Cruiser in 1964. So GM cars are of little interest to me. If any other automaker comes up with a reasonably sized diesel PU, the GMC PU will be sold. I know for a fact that a Ranger sized PU with a 4 cylinder diesel is capable of 45 MPG. That would suit my needs just fine. If not I keep using more than my share of fossil fuel. That should be simple enough to understand. |
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Replying to: tpe (Jun 22, 2006 3:16 pm) Not quite. But the indicators thus far hint strongly that this technology has a real-world shot of breaking through the consumer market, because the right consumers (the innovators who like tech for tech's sake) are clearly interested enough to spend their money, and because the early adoptors (the visionaries who are ecology minded) seem to be transitioning the baton to the "early majority" (pragmatists who like to save fuel, even if the payoff isn't immediate and a premium price is required). This handoff from the early adoptors to the early majority is critical if the product is going to have a market breakthrough, and eventually gain mainstream acceptance. EV's haven't even attracted the innovators, and there's no reason for them to do so. If anything, hybrids reduce the short-term likelihood of pure EV's making it in the short run, because hybrids have stolen all their thunder. So I go back to the past bit: Without demand and a chance to eventually earn a profit, there will be no reason to build EV's. If you don't think that the auto industry has studied this forward and backward to see whether it makes sense to do it, think again.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 22, 2006 3:18 pm) Well maybe they didn't embrace EVs because they didn't see the profit, which is not the same thing as not seeing the demand. When Toyota, Datsun, Honda, VW offered small cars in the 60s and early 70s the big 3 didn't jump on the bandwagon for the same reason. Why manufacture a car that generates less profit? In retrospect maybe they would have been smarter to sacrifice immediate profitability for long term competitiveness. I believe it will happen again. You've made posts regarding disruptive technologies. A viable EV is the Godzilla of disruptive technologies in that it challenges the biggest industry on the planet. Don't think it won't have obstacles to overcome. One of them being the public perception that was created by a campaign of disinformation.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 22, 2006 3:28 pm)
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Replying to: tpe (Jun 22, 2006 3:40 pm) I think that one basic truism is that if we need a conspiracy theory to support our beliefs in a technology, then the technology probably doesn't make sense. You should find it interesting that none of the automakers have expressed more than a modest interest in EV's. Not the behemoth US dinosaurs, not the Japanese market leaders, not the aggressive niche players, not the Asian upstarts, not the Germans, and not even the major makers outside the US market such as Renault and FIAT have done it. Why not? While I wouldn't expect everyone to do it, I would expect some of them to do it if it was a great idea. Apparently, it isn't, they've seen the results to date, and obviously don't think it's worth it.
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