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Hybrid Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles - Archived Discussions Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow? 
2104 messages, Last post on Oct 27, 2006 at 5:34 AM
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Replying to: tpe (Jun 22, 2006 1:07 pm) I seriously doubt that it is even that high, and there is nothing happening in the market today to indicate that it has a chance of happening. Assuming that GM had leased an additional 5,000 EV-1's, that would have meant that 5,800 cars were put onto the road over a period of several years. If perhaps 50 million new cars entered the market during that time (I'm not sure of that figure, but close enough for the sake of discussion), that would mean that perhaps EV's comprised 0.012% of the US car market, or 12/1000ths of one percent. There's probably a bigger market for kit cars than there was for EV's, the EV's are a non-factor in the market. Not surprising, because EV's don't offer the vast majority of consumers anything that they need when they need it, while tremendously eroding peace of mind to boot. There are a few very committed devotees, but no-one else. I suspect that an upstart auto manufacturer could make some decent money capturing 2% of the market and I think you will see it happen. This theory has been the basis of many a stock scam during the last several decades, particularly the fifties and sixties. It never, never happened. It is very difficult to get 2% of the market with anything, particularly a fledgling company selling unproven technology. The US automotive industry has tremendously expensive barriers to entry, with large entrenched competitors with strong brands that will be hard to dethrone without a lot of capital and effort to do it.
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Jun 22, 2006 1:16 pm) How much fuel would 1 million vehicles save. Probably about 500 million gallons per year. Not all that much relative to our total consumption but conservation needs to take place on the individual level. These million individuals will be doing far more than the drivers of hybrids or flex fuel vehicles burning E85, if they can even get E85.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 22, 2006 1:18 pm) Regardless, I think if even 1% of the buyers would consider an EV that could change the market by changing the perception of the driving public.
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Replying to: tpe (Jun 22, 2006 1:41 pm) Do all that, and you're still nowhere close to 1%. If that got you to even 0.05% of the market, I'd be surprised. The market is a great tool, because it helps to sort out the wheat (reality) from the chaff (dreamy idealism.) Capitalists want to make money, and you don't see them in this space. You can bet that this segment has been analyzed to death by many, many people looking for great opportunities. It is almost certain that there's a really good reason why none of the smart money is investing in it. |
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Replying to: tpe (Jun 22, 2006 1:35 pm) And what was the cost to the manufacturer for the EV1 and RAV4 EV? Could this be one reason GM and Toyota canceled the program?
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 22, 2006 11:55 am) You really should read your posts. They sound like a broken record. You are assuming you understand the average buyer. I don't think you are even close. There are now out of this small group 3 posters that would buy and use an electric vehicle for all the short haul stuff. Saving at least 3/4 of the cost per mile using a comparable sized gas car.
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 22, 2006 2:08 pm) But why not buy a plug-in hybrid instead so it could be treated as an electric vehicle for all the short haul stuff AND be useful for longer ranges? If one wanted to treat it as an EV vehicle they could. It would just have the added insurance of an onboard ICE.
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 22, 2006 2:08 pm) I don't need to understand the average buyer, I just need to look at what they're buying, and why they buy it. They had decades to buy the diesels that you so passionately adore, but they have never done it, whether or not they had the opportunity. Take the hint, that message is loud and clear. There are now out of this small group 3 posters that would buy and use an electric vehicle for all the short haul stuff. The devotees are the ones posting on this thread. Of course they will skew toward the pro-alternative crowd, that's why they're posting here. You should ask yourself who isn't posting here. The average person who buys cars couldn't care less about any of this stuff. I'm sure you'll find several thousand Americans who want electric cars, but that isn't enough to create a market, which is fairly obvious given that there is no market today despite the existence of these cars for many years.
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Replying to: rorr (Jun 22, 2006 2:08 pm) It could have been. They were expensive. Same as batteries for a hybrid. The money saved on the gas engine and complex transmission could buy enough batteries to travel an extra 100 miles. I do think we will need better batteries for mainstream EVs. I would be an early adopter of an EV. Talk about loss of range the E85 FFV range is nothing to write home about. A Dodge Stratus using E85 has about a 200 mile range in town and a little over 300 on the highway.
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 22, 2006 2:18 pm) Sure, but when a E85 FFV gets low on gas, what do you do? Pull into a gas station and 5 minutes later you're on your way again. Simple. Um, can't do that with EV's.
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