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Hybrid Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles - Archived Discussions Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow? 
2104 messages, Last post on Oct 27, 2006 at 5:34 AM
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Replying to: rorr (Jun 22, 2006 12:05 pm) I believe that you speak for the vast majority of consumers. Pure EV is a choice driven by ideology, not by cost, convenience or cool factor, which leaves you with a very tiny market, and explains why you don't find everyone rushing in to sell them as is. That being said, I think plug-in hybrids make a LOT more sense. I agree that they will, now that the hybrid is moving toward the mainstream and people have learned from the pacesetters that the technology works well enough. Now, the main barrier seems to be technological: the plug-in version would require batteries that are much larger in order to hold a charge that would be good for any reasonable distance, so there's not much point to having a plug just yet. But as the batteries become lighter, smaller and/or more efficient, this could change.
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Replying to: rorr (Jun 22, 2006 12:05 pm)
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Jun 22, 2006 12:18 pm) Whether or not the daily commute requires a short range or not isn't (IMO) the issue. I think that the vast majority of buyers don't want a range limitation just for their own piece of mind. If everyone was a logical as you seem to think they are, very few pickups, or SUVs would be bought. Yes, their utility is great but it is needed (by most of their purchasers) for only very occasional use. Yet most folks don't want to rent a truck only when needed; they want the convenience of having that utility WHENEVER they desire. I see the same thing with EV's. Sure, 95% of the time their range might be fine. And I'm sure with a little planning/trading off, a 2nd vehicle would fill their needs for longer trips. But I don't think most folks could get past the 'what if' thoughts in their minds regarding running out of juice and not being able to refill. Having the onboard ICE and a fuel tank is really nice insurance. And if the battery issues are solved to the point where EV's are practical, then I would think it would be even more so for a plug-in hybrid.
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Replying to: rorr (Jun 22, 2006 12:51 pm)
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Jun 22, 2006 12:55 pm) I guess the only issue is whether or not there are enough snakeweasels out there to support a 100% EV industry. No offense meant.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 22, 2006 12:16 pm)
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Replying to: rorr (Jun 22, 2006 1:05 pm)
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Replying to: tpe (Jun 22, 2006 1:07 pm) I seriously doubt that it is even that high, and there is nothing happening in the market today to indicate that it has a chance of happening. Assuming that GM had leased an additional 5,000 EV-1's, that would have meant that 5,800 cars were put onto the road over a period of several years. If perhaps 50 million new cars entered the market during that time (I'm not sure of that figure, but close enough for the sake of discussion), that would mean that perhaps EV's comprised 0.012% of the US car market, or 12/1000ths of one percent. There's probably a bigger market for kit cars than there was for EV's, the EV's are a non-factor in the market. Not surprising, because EV's don't offer the vast majority of consumers anything that they need when they need it, while tremendously eroding peace of mind to boot. There are a few very committed devotees, but no-one else. I suspect that an upstart auto manufacturer could make some decent money capturing 2% of the market and I think you will see it happen. This theory has been the basis of many a stock scam during the last several decades, particularly the fifties and sixties. It never, never happened. It is very difficult to get 2% of the market with anything, particularly a fledgling company selling unproven technology. The US automotive industry has tremendously expensive barriers to entry, with large entrenched competitors with strong brands that will be hard to dethrone without a lot of capital and effort to do it.
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Jun 22, 2006 1:16 pm) How much fuel would 1 million vehicles save. Probably about 500 million gallons per year. Not all that much relative to our total consumption but conservation needs to take place on the individual level. These million individuals will be doing far more than the drivers of hybrids or flex fuel vehicles burning E85, if they can even get E85.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 22, 2006 1:18 pm) Regardless, I think if even 1% of the buyers would consider an EV that could change the market by changing the perception of the driving public.
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