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Hybrid Vehicles Hybrid Vehicles - Archived Discussions Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow? 
2104 messages, Last post on Oct 27, 2006 at 5:34 AM
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Replying to: tpe (Jun 21, 2006 4:22 am) I told you, I don't understand the tendency on this thread by most of the participants to support one "solution" so strongly, while ignoring very similar flaws that create the same problems for their recommend idea. I'm trying to introduce a bit of sobriety to the conversation so that all of you consider the implications of what you're talking about. You can't hang your hat on one solution, you'll have to combine them, while facing a couple of constraints: (a) the US government tends to like tax credit subsidies, and oppose tax increases, and (b) you'll need to count largely on the free market for the answer, since the US government tends to limit its involvement to subsidies and lip service, rather than full-blown initiatives meant to hit a directed target quickly. In my opinion, the most likely viable solution will focus on technologies that get cars to use less gasoline, while accepting that we'll probably still be using a lot of it. That means hybrid technology, coupled with E10, because you have one company that has created a market for it, and you may as well run with the ball. It's the one answer I can think of that actually has a free market drive behind it, and you can use the E10 to reduce your usage by another few percent. Over time, you could mandate that all vehicles sold in the US that run on gas must have FFV capability, and change the tax and pricing scheme so that E85 is cheaper. But I seriously doubt that an increased gas tax has a snowball's chance in Hades of being imposed, and I can't see enough ethanol being produced anytime soon to ever create enough E85 to reduce dependency, so this is more of a pleasant fantasy than anything else. If you're going to focus on biodiesel, it makes the most sense to stop worrying about the car market, and focus on those who already use it -- truckers. That being said, it doesn't seem we'll ever produce nearly enough of it to ever make a difference, so focusing on biodiesel as a mass market solution doesn't seem necessary, just blend it with the existing fuel at a low percentage, and stretch out your diesel supplies as much as possible. As for regular diesel in the car market, its success or failure will likely be driven by the free market, which probably means that it will be a big flop. There's no free market reason to gamble big on diesel, which limits its market potential. So it would take government intervention to possibly create a better result, and there's no political will for that. The EV's are the furthest behind, yet ironically, its best hope is in the hybrid industry because it is hybrids that will create the revenues needed to drive R&D improvements that will benefit the batteries and other aspects of the technology. Solving the real world problems inherent to electric vehicles will be difficult to impossible, and are needless given the likelihood of hybrid adoption, so I think hybrids are the closest thing to EV's that we're ever going to get. I would expect hybrids over time to use their gas engines less and less, which will improve their fuel savings, and the batteries to improve, which should make them lighter and more efficient.
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Replying to: markcincinnati (Jun 21, 2006 4:49 am) No, it doesn't!
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 21, 2006 7:48 am) The only gamble I can see for the automakers is the transportation costs getting here from the EU or Japan. In the case of the Liberty diesel they were built here. The diesel technology advances are for the larger market which is currently the EU and soon to be Japan. As you have pointed out so well in other threads the Big 2.5 have done little in the way of innovation over the last 30 years. That leaves the door wide open to foriegn automakers. If there was a market for E85 vehicles it would be easy for companies like VW to bring them in by the boat load. I am not a big fan of Honda automobiles. I think I would give them a shot if they brought a diesel Pilot into the market.
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 21, 2006 8:13 am) I'm not denying that there will be a few diesel cars sold here, nor do I see anybody else claiming otherwise. There has long been a small market for diesel cars in the US, but it is a niche market with few customers. The issue I'm discussing is their popularity, and therefore their viability as a large component of any plan, and I doubt they'll be very popular. They might become perhaps 10% of the new car market (which would require more than tripling their sales), a mere drop in the bucket. Dream all you like, but without a push, there's not much reason for much more demand than that. |
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 21, 2006 8:13 am) |
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 21, 2006 8:02 am) |
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 20, 2006 9:12 pm) But we all can't afford the luxury diesel autos that do not solve any oil cartel cuts and so instead we currently have ethanol and all it's derivatives NOW, not in some dream future.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 21, 2006 7:48 am) Really? Ever is a long time. I don't know what the percentage of the population that would embrace EVs is. I do know that it is more than zero because I want one. I do know that the type of EV that I'd be willing to drive has already been made by GM and Toyota. Not NOW but in the past. If I wanted to embrace ethanol NOW I would have to trade in my 4 cyl Honda Accord for either a truck or a Ford Taurus and then drive 100s of miles to find a gas station that sold ethanol. So I'd have a vehicle that got worse gas mileage that didn't even have the range to get me to an ethanol fueling station. That would certainly put the oil cartel in its place. Using ethanol will still keep us oil dependent so the people that drive these FFVs are not part of the solution they are at best a smaller part of the problem. I would expect hybrids over time to use their gas engines less and less, which will improve their fuel savings, and the batteries to improve, which should make them lighter and more efficient. How do you see this happening when you have already stated an opposition to plug-in hybrids? Without plug-in capability every mile driven in a hybrid, electric or ICE, was ultimately the result of burning fuel. |
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Replying to: seniorjose (Jun 21, 2006 10:31 am) Yes, but NOW ethanol doesn't solve any oil cartel cuts either. As I understand it, NOW we produce around 4.4 Billion gallons of ethanol a year. We consume around 140 Billion gallons of gasoline a year. So, right NOW we only meet a bit over 3% of our fuel needs from ethanol. Which tells me that NOW ethanol doesn't do squat to reduce our foreign dependency for oil. I've seen projected production numbers for ethanol in the 8-10 Billion gallon/year range by 2010 (is this the 'dream future' you refer too?). Assuming an increase in demand for fuel in this country of roughly 2%, by 2010 the annual consumption of fuel would grow from 140 B gallons to around 150 B gallons. So even with 10B gallons of production of ethanol by 2010, that would still be less than 7% of our fuel needs. And you'll note that even 10B gallons of ethanol doesn't even fill the requirements for the E10 mandate. NOW or in the 'dream future'.
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Replying to: rorr (Jun 21, 2006 12:19 pm) Add to that if the current price of ethanol continues upward it will price itself out of existence long before 2012.
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