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Will ethanol E85 catch on in the US? Will we Live Green and Go Yellow? ![]()

2104 messages, Last post on Oct 27, 2006 at 5:34 AM
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Jun 20, 2006 12:17 pm) Of course to some of us, Burger King french fries ARE nasty. But, who am I kidding, I cannot turn down a holster of fries from almost any of the fast food giants. Now THAT's being addicted to oil!
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Jun 20, 2006 7:50 am) The MB diesel - 201 hp/4200 rpm, 369 ft lb/1800 rpm the similarly 'advanced' 3.5 liter V6 gas - 268 hp/6000 and 248/2400. Despite the 50% disadvantage in torque the E350 gas will still outrun the E320CDI - at the penalty of about 8 mpg
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Replying to: markcincinnati (Jun 20, 2006 12:30 pm)
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Replying to: captain2 (Jun 20, 2006 12:54 pm) What reduces HP in a diesel is not limited RPMs but the fact that Diesels get most of their torque at very low RPM's. The formula you gave for calculating HP is correct, which means the higher the RPM's when you hit maximum torque the higher the HP. Typically a good gasoline engine exists happily at 6000 rpm plus 6000 RPM is a awful lot for a gasser to be running at a constant speed and is very close to red lining it in many cases. My daily drive with a 4 banger is well past 80 MPH at half that engine speed.
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Replying to: gagrice (Jun 20, 2006 1:02 pm) |
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Replying to: snakeweasel (Jun 20, 2006 1:12 pm) GM is welcome to use its 'flex fuel' vehicles to inflate its corporate fuel economy numbers and then try to convince the uneducated consumer that it is actually cheaper to run on ethanol - but it is what it is - a rouse! |
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 20, 2006 12:23 pm) Any discussion of alternative fuels (any alternative to gasoline in the US and even in Europe for that matter) cannot presume “the market” will behave in ways that are more expensive or less convenient or less “whatever is important at the time” – but, with some occasional hiccups; effectively, people will do what is best for them, i.e. Altruism, like common sense, is “common” usually only to/for one person – you. Now then, why is it that the market needs to be convinced that diesel isn’t weird? – the diesel cars in widespread use (but not in the US, overall) are not weird at all. They look like their gasoline fueled counterparts, largely. Looking at a Mercedes E class taxi in Germany, e.g., it is, perhaps, safe to assume it is a diesel, but it is not an absolute. Looking at the vehicle, perhaps other than the rear deck lid, there are no indications of the fuel required, in this instance. Similar “blending in” (i.e., the lack of styling cues or other characteristics that might make a vehicle be perceived as “weird”) of gasoline and diesel vehicles is evident in: Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Luxembourg and Poland (countries that I travel to with some frequency.) Simply stated, it is rarely, if ever, possible to determine which is which. Weird, exotic or odd vehicles do, of course exist, but they rarely distinguish themselves by virtue of their engines or fuel requirements. It is also true, at least in the US – the “show me” country – that to sway the consumer’s buying habits we “need some offsetting factor, such as a diesel car that simply blows people away (gets great press, media attention, etc.)” Although we may debate if the following is “enough” of a story to “blow people away,” this milestone follows a similar American victory at Sebring just a couple of months prior. In other words, it would seem that this is at least part of the requirement to be considered compliant with the term “offsetting factor.” This month (June 2006) we have seen: TDI “Rules” at Le Mans. Continued next. |
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The diesel wow (blow away?) story goes like this: First victory of a diesel engine in 24 Hour race Historic triumph in front of record crowd Both Audi R10 TDI cars with podium finishes “AUDI AG has written an important chapter in the history of motor racing with its historic triumph in the Le Mans 24 Hour race. The new Audi R10 TDI was the first diesel car to win arguably the toughest car race in the world. In front of a record crowd of 235,000 spectators, Frank Biela (Germany), Emanuele Pirro (Italy) and Marco Werner (Germany) clinched the sixth and most important Le Mans win for Audi so far. Dindo Capello (Italy), Tom Kristensen (Denmark) and Allan McNish (Scotland) also achieved a podium in finishing third overall. The fans on the race track and a worldwide audience of millions of TV viewers saw an impressive demonstration of Audi TDI Power and the performance of modern diesel engines. The brace of Audi R10 TDI cars, powered by a 650 hp V12 TDI engine, were by far the fastest and most economical cars. During the entire race, one of the new diesel sportscars from Ingolstadt was at the head of the field. Le Mans record winner Tom Kristensen drove the fastest lap of the race, setting a 3m 31.211s time, and he was the first driver at the wheel of an LM P1 sportscar to cover 16 laps with one fuel load. Completing 380 laps, Audi also set a new distance record. In the race, the advantage in fuel consumption of the Audi TDI Power was visible for the spectators too: on average, the Audi drivers only pitted every 14 laps to refuel 90 litres of Shell V-Power Diesel. The opposition, who relies on petrol engines, had to pit considerably more often. The fans were also impressed just how quiet an environmentally friendly 650-hp sportscar can be.” “And then you need a manufacturer to do it.” Perhaps these two victories, and the publicity, have made significant inroads into addressing this need to impress. Perhaps not. The path to market with the “tastemakers” (those who are the buyers of Premium/LPS vehicles, i.e.) is well underway with 70% of the premium vehicle market in Europe already swayed from conventional gasoline to "alternative" diesel (with 30% of the total market, in tow.) Typically, "the vehicle market" (and others, too) works from the top down – the premium class features and attributes “trickles down” to the near-premium class, and so on until even the economy class is expected to feature power everything, air conditioning, up-level sound systems and so on. Time and again, we have seen this sequence of events – and it includes, of course such things as seat belts, anti-lock brakes, FWD, AWD tubo-charged, supercharged [engines] and air bags. What were once only in the flagship vehicles ultimately show up from top to bottom. Thus it will be with “alternative” (in this instance, diesel) powered vehicles. For most of us, 20% mileage improvements with power improvements (accelerateion) and no top speed negatives would be a “wide margin.” E.G., my car currently costs $60 to fill with gasoline. If I could fill it for the same or slightly less money but do so less frequently (20%) this would translate to a savings (today) of about $12 (plus, perhaps, $2 to account for the lower per gallon cost) per thankful. Over the course of a three year lifespan (or longer, if you like) this is, for most people, real money - a wide margin. Perhaps this margin is enough real motivation to consider purchasing this alternative (to gasoline) fuel vehicle – especially when the E85 alternative FFV vehicle will increase the cost per thankful by about 25% to 50%, effectively. The LPS makers will (they already do) put cool technology in their cars (e.g., Lexus “h” cars, however, are not simply cars that have cool systems not found in a gas car – indeed, like the statements pertaining to diesels above, there really isn’t much that differentiates a Lexus full sized LPS “h” car from its gas only counterpart) diesel, hybrid or FFV or no. The LPS mfgrs always have and probably always will. Lastly, I do not fully understand this: “A strictly pragmatic approach will fail, because you don't reach the tastemakers with it.” Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, VW and on and on reach some taste makers (leaders) and some taste followers, of that there should be no disagreement. At 70% of the [European] tastemaker market, Audi, BMW and Mercedes probably don’t feel they are failing. Moreover, Audi announced that it has now come to the point where 50% of the over 800,000 vehicles it sells annually are gasoline and 50% diesel. I assume at least some similarity in terms of market share would be evidenced by the other "tastemaker" manufacturers.
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Replying to: markcincinnati (Jun 20, 2006 5:05 pm) Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, VW and on and on reach some taste makers (leaders) and some taste followers, of that there should be no disagreement. Not quite what I meant. To follow this, it would help you to read Geoffrey Moore's classic text on technology marketing called Crossing the Chasm (I cite it often here, it's really outstanding and a must-read for anyone interested in this). It comes down to this: to introduce a disruptive technology, the first people you reach are the technology geeks who like cool stuff for its own sake, then follow by reaching those seeking to make improvements that create some sort of interesting benefit, until eventually reaching a majority who buy based upon price. The "innovators" (geeks) aren't a large enough group to generate profits, and their buy-in doesn't guarantee success, but you absolutely MUST reach these people first, because they will evangelize your product to others who learn from them. They are your tastemakers. People seeking a bit of fuel economy improvement are not evangelizers, they are strictly pragmatic. They are focused on price and skeptical, and indirectly look to the way paved by the technology tastemakers before they buy into it. The problem with diesel marketed as a fuel saver is that you have leapfrogged over the tastemakers straight to the pragmatists, who are naturally skeptical and hard to convince, and you have no tastemakers to persuade them. And because diesel is a mature technology, it's unlikely to appeal to the tastemakers, anyway (diesel is been there, done that to that group), which means your shot at eventually converting the pragmatists is remote. So you're dead from the start. That's why I would suggest that the cars have to be really amazingly different and appealing cars that just happen to be diesels, so that people associate diesel with these cool attributes, and not some stinky fuel. Those tastemakers are largely unconcerned with a bit of fuel savings, that's not tech-cool enough to please this group. The smartest things that Toyota did was to make sure that the Prius could run some of the time without the gas engine, and by putting that monitoring screen on the dash of the Prius. With the former, they were able to accentuate the technology difference. With the latter, TMC made the hybrid an entertainer and impresario in real time, with cool graphics screaming out what the technology was doing at that moment. Those are the sorts of things that appeal to tastemakers, and keep them interested and feeling religion about the product. This also gives you insight as to why TMC began with a deliberately weird-looking car, rather than just shoehorning the technology immediately into a Camry -- because tastemakers don't want normal cars, they go out of their way to be different. The next group of buyers will be the ones most concerned with saving fuel, not because they expect immediate payback, but because they associate the fuel saving technology with really interesting technology and a wave that they want to lead. Diesel serves none of those impulses, it appeals to a few die-hard engineering types who have been boosting it for years, without success. So again, unless the price of diesel goes well below the price of gas, there's no undercurrent to push it along.
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Replying to: socala4 (Jun 20, 2006 5:39 pm) The fact that it's last week's news, instead of a new technology, makes marketing it to innovators that much harder. Without a sexy breakout vehicle attached to it, you're stuck promoting it to the very same pragmatic types who have long been unimpressed by it, and are even hostile to it. That's a big stumbling block, you'll have to figure out a way to get around that aside from MPG.
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